Reply #22: The Point is Not That There is Independent Polling Data

[On the Road]

The OP proposed that the questions needed to be answered. I agree. But it is specious to argue from personal ignorance and a distruct of government that the question is unanswerable, and then proceed to the conclusion that intervention is unjustified.

In conflicts like this, you are rarely able to assign exact polling data and assign statistical signficance. But drawing on knowledge of the country from the State Department, intelligence sources, the American and Libyan ex-pat communities, and a host of other information, you can a very good qualitative idea of the government's support.

As far as the 80-90% support goes:

- Qaddaffi support can be estimated by comparing him to other embattled leaders. Mubarak was by all accounts more popular, and probably had 20-30% support. Probably about the same for former Eastern European states under the Soviets. Support for the American-backed South Vietnamese government was probably in the same range, even including groups like former colonial employees, ethnic Chinese and certain anti-VPA tribes. For reasons given below, I beleive Qaddaffi's support is signficantly less than that.

- Qaddaffi has high support among government employees, the upper class, loyalist military, and his tribe. Those groups are a fairly small percentage of the population, and as shown from the defection is not 100% even within those. Qaddaffi did not spread the wealth like eg Marshal Tito, or maintain an organization like the Baath Party or Communist Party which would serve to broaden public support. Instead, he discouraged opposition by public executions, imprisonment, fear, and widespread suppression of all political organizing. That reinforces and probably lowers the 20% support figure.

- By all accounts, there are very few disinterested parties here. Apolitical people in the US are pretty common. In a 42-year dictatorship with a long history of abuses and usurpations, people with no opinion are probably no more than 5%. So most non-Qaddaffi supporters are likely to be supporters of the opposition.

- The phase of peaceful opposition showed massive opposition to Qaddaffi, even in more pro-Qaddaffi cities like Tripoli.

- The fact that Qaddaffi was forced to rely on mercenaries shows that he cannot find enough volunteers from the population to staff his own military.

- The numerous high-level defections do not indicate a divided nation. On the contrary, they indicate a country that is broadly opposed to its dictator where even the higher-ups had serious enough reservations to change sides.

- Qaddafi is not shelling Sirte, which is his home town and where he has a significant amount of support. However, the fact that he is shelling many other cities such as Misrata, Ajdabiya, and Zawiyah shows that he has abandoned any hope of support in those cities. You do not fire artillery at your friends.

------------

I think you're reading too much in to the small number of fighters. The peaceful protests at the beginning of the conlict were a much better indication of the level of opposition. It's doubtful Qaddafi has much support outside of his small core of loyalists.

After considering your question again, I think 80-90% support for the opposition is a good estimate.