Reply #13: Even WITH that trigger, which may or may not ever occur--

[chill_wind]

The final number for defense cuts will likely be $700 billion over 10 years, according to Jim McAleese, of McAleese & Associates, McLean, Va, a law firm specializing in defense matters. This is a combination of the first $350 billion, plus whatever recommendations emerge from the new bipartisan congressional committee, he said.

(snip)

“We thus see no net change for defense, as we have believed that most defense stocks have discounted a DoD budget cut between $400 to $800 billion over the next 10 years,” Callan wrote in an Aug. 1 email.

(snip)

Even if the deal leads to cutting the full $850 billion from the Pentagon, that’s still less than recommended by two recent bipartisan debt panels.

If no trigger kicks in, it amounts to a nominal spending freeze:

An April analysis by the Stimson Center showed that if spread out over 10 years, a $400 billion cut to the defense base budget amounted to a nominal freeze in the Office of Management and Budget projections for the Pentagon, meaning the defense budget would be allowed to grow to keep up with inflation.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/08/defense-spending-expectations-largely-unchanged-by-debt-deal-080111/