Reply #33: I hate to say this but given a choice between a computer model and actual data ...

[spin]

I have to go with the data.

Hell our computer models can't even tell precisely where a hurricane is going to hit five days before landfall. They really have a hard time predicting storm intensity.

I remember evacuating Tampa Florida in 2004 along with 300,000 other people and heading south to my daughter's home in Lee county. I was sitting watching TV as the storm decided to take a sharp right turn and ran over Captiva Island and then Port Charlotte Florida. I ended up on the outskirts of this very small and intense hurricane.

The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph (185 km/h) upon its landfall in the Tampa-Saint Petersburg area.<18> About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph (230 km/h) Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area.<19> As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, despite the fact that the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error. National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable. In addition, he also stated that residents of Port Charlotte had ample warning,<20> as a hurricane warning had been issued for the landfall area 23 hours before, and a hurricane watch had existed for 35 hours.<1>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

The experts and their computer models appeared fairly certain that landfall would be in the Tampa Bay area and the wind strength would be around 115 mph which is a strong Category 2 hurricane. Instead the hurricane made landfall 70 miles south with a wind speed of 145 mph which is a category 4. It actually passed over Captiva Island with a wind speed of 150 mph, 5 mph short of a category 5.

Here's the latest computer models for tropical storm Don which is only couple of days from landfall. I'm sure that they have improved the computer programs significantly in the last few years by analyzing the actual results compared to the models. Still, they have a ways to go.



Computer models are great and when compared to actual results they can be improved to be more accurate.

By the way, I am not a person who denies global warming or climate change exists. I do value scientific facts more than computer models. All this data might show is that we have a little more time to figure out how to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel. We need to rapidly develop alternative energy sources and there is little time to waste.

edited to correct typo