My conclusion on the budget deal

[Recursion]

Boehner was bluffing about shutting down the government, but expected the face-saving facade of cuts to last longer than it did (hopefully until after the vote was forgotten). Reid and Obama correctly read that he would take accounting gimmicks as if they were actual cuts, but managed to conveniently leak the real numbers just in time to humiliate Boehner.

A prediction: he will be primaried next year, hard. He can probably win, but it will be very ugly. If you think DU complains loudly about Obama caving, check out any conservative forum over the past year or so: we're amateurs at whining in comparison. Boehner had to go to Democrats for votes today. I'm not convinced he can get the base back after that.