Reply #90: I am in Nevada myself and from where I sit things look grim for Reid.

[totodeinhere]

What is important about the debate is the sound bites that came out of the debate, not the debate itself. I doubt if very many Nevadans even watched the entire debate, yet most saw Angle's "man up" sound bite on the local news. In fact where I live here in Elko I couldn't even get the debate on TV and had to resort to listening to it on a low powered translator from Reno's NPR station.

Reid is very unpopular outside of Clark County and I doubt if he will carry any other county. Angle is from the Reno area and should do well there and she will clean up in very conservative rural areas such as where I am. And Reid cannot count on the Hispanic vote too much either, probably because his son Rory is running against popular Hispanic Republican Brian Sandoval in the governor's race. (And Sandoval is up 25 points in that race BTW.)

Reid keeps running cheesy radio ads in this area that talk about how his father gave him his first gun when he was a boy and about how he will protect our Second Amendment rights. But most people I know, and I realize that this is just anecdotal, laugh at those ads and consider it pandering.

Only because Angle is bat shit crazy is this race even close. But I'm afraid that a lot of Nevadans loath Reid so much that they will knowing vote for a crazy person over him. At best I give Reid about a 40% chance of pulling it off.