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Reply #13: Looks like more of the same. Why is any of that good news? [View All]

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FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-14-10 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. Looks like more of the same. Why is any of that good news?
Ok... two of them (NC and WV) are good news. Let's take them in order.

OK-2: They really start the sentence with "the most vulnerable Democratic seats"... trying to hint that this should be one of them (so if we're leading it's a good sign). In reality, the OK 2nd has never been on anyone's list of endangered seats. It's Safe D on every list I've seen and Boren has never won by less than a 2:1 margin.

CO-04: Hey... at least this one is a seat on most tossup lists. But let's face it... and internal poll showing an incumbent tied at 38% in an R-leaning district is really saying "we're going to lose, but at least we won't get embarrassed".

CT-05: - We're supposed to get excited about a claimed tie? This is really the same story as the OK-2 race. Cook has it as Likely D. 538 says an 84% chance of a D victory. Murphy won two years ago by 16%... and we're supposed to think that it's good news that someone admits the race is tied? It's had better not be anywhere close to tied or we're in big trouble.

IA-01/IA-02/IA-03 - Addressed in an earlier thread. Only one of these three was really expected to be a competitive race, and it remains one. The poll is mildly good news... hardly the "holy sh1t surprise"

IL-10: Yep. It's good to know that the long-term consensus 3rd-most-likely republican seat to switch still looks like it will switch... but is this really evidence that the prognosticators are overly pessimistic?

MS-01: Similar to CO. An internal poll showing an incumbent under 50%? Cook and the NYT have this one as a tossup (while Silver has it as an 84%R chance). I'd say that Childers' poll is consistent with the tossup call.

NC-08: The best news of the bunch. This is a real tossup race (at least on the cards I've seen). Kissel has been in close races before and knows how to win.

PA-04: Again... whoop-de-doo. If we lose this race, we've lost 80 others. It's solid/likely D in the ratings I've seen and Altmire won that seat by 12% last time. I think this is one of the "tea party knocks off the mainstream republican in the primary" races.

WV-01: Similar to the NC race.
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