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Reply #9: I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect [View All]

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Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-10 05:58 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect
If he predicta 50.1%-49.9% outcome and its 49.9%-50.1% that just illustrates the limits of any model.

Also, I see, intrade and the Iowa political markets are "predicting" the Republicants have a 70% chance of capturing the House.
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  -Here's a pretty strong rebuttal to Nate Silver's predictions by craigmatic  Sep-12-10 12:14 AM   #0 
  - Thanks for some good news nt  flamingdem   Sep-12-10 12:17 AM   #1 
  - I just checked his model and he has us at exactly 218 seats not counting the toss ups.  craigmatic   Sep-12-10 12:27 AM   #2 
     - But EV shows us losing the Senate?  DrToast   Sep-12-10 12:34 AM   #4 
        - EV results on their home page aer very problematic. They use the latest poll for a state .  Mass   Sep-12-10 08:41 PM   #13 
        - They have DE as "Strong Republican," but it looks llike O'Donnell will beat Castle who will then  jenmito   Sep-12-10 09:54 PM   #16 
  - I don't generally make it a habit to bet against Nate, but...  DrToast   Sep-12-10 12:33 AM   #3 
  - He was off in the MN governor's primary  DFLforever   Sep-12-10 12:44 AM   #5 
  - I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect  DemocratSinceBirth   Sep-12-10 05:58 AM   #9 
  - I didn't know enough about Minnesota then to make his prediction  Hansel   Sep-13-10 02:04 PM   #23 
  - I'm betting against Nate this time nt  flamingdem   Sep-12-10 12:58 AM   #6 
  - No Need To Bet Against Him, Remember, His Analysis Is A Snapshot Of THIS MOMENT IN TIME  Beetwasher   Sep-13-10 12:37 PM   #18 
     - Good point. I agree.*  DrToast   Sep-13-10 02:39 PM   #24 
  - Kick  angee_is_mad   Sep-12-10 02:12 AM   #7 
  - People usually think "their" congresscritter is okay  krispos42   Sep-12-10 02:15 AM   #8 
  - No so much a "rebuttal" as an explanation for why they differ.  FBaggins   Sep-12-10 06:53 AM   #10 
  - There's only hope if we work our asses off. No need for "pretty strong rebuttals" to...  ClassWarrior   Sep-12-10 07:36 AM   #11 
  - Nate is good for the most part  Ramulux   Sep-12-10 08:29 PM   #12 
  - Not a rebuttal. He explains how these models work. Interesting to read, and of course,  Mass   Sep-12-10 08:46 PM   #14 
  - Nate Silver's predictions are based on how the election would go, BASED ON TODAY'S POLLS.  backscatter712   Sep-12-10 09:39 PM   #15 
  - I think many will be proven wrong on election day.  JNelson6563   Sep-13-10 12:35 PM   #17 
  - Do you agree with's prediction that Republicans will win control of the Senate?  DrSteveB   Sep-13-10 12:52 PM   #19 
  - I know this post isn't to me, but I disagree with them that Repubs. will take the Senate because  jenmito   Sep-13-10 12:57 PM   #20 
  - I disagree but at least the's model changes frequently concerning the Senate  craigmatic   Sep-13-10 09:19 PM   #25 
  - They'll probably end up one short and then I'll say  harun   Sep-13-10 01:07 PM   #21 
  - Nate is good at what he does, but what he does is limited  Bluenorthwest   Sep-13-10 01:07 PM   #22 

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