You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #9: I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-10 05:58 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect
If he predicta 50.1%-49.9% outcome and its 49.9%-50.1% that just illustrates the limits of any model.

Also, I see, intrade and the Iowa political markets are "predicting" the Republicants have a 70% chance of capturing the House.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
  -Here's a pretty strong rebuttal to Nate Silver's predictions by electoral-vote.com. craigmatic  Sep-12-10 12:14 AM   #0 
  - Thanks for some good news nt  flamingdem   Sep-12-10 12:17 AM   #1 
  - I just checked his model and he has us at exactly 218 seats not counting the toss ups.  craigmatic   Sep-12-10 12:27 AM   #2 
     - But EV shows us losing the Senate?  DrToast   Sep-12-10 12:34 AM   #4 
        - EV results on their home page aer very problematic. They use the latest poll for a state .  Mass   Sep-12-10 08:41 PM   #13 
        - They have DE as "Strong Republican," but it looks llike O'Donnell will beat Castle who will then  jenmito   Sep-12-10 09:54 PM   #16 
  - I don't generally make it a habit to bet against Nate, but...  DrToast   Sep-12-10 12:33 AM   #3 
  - He was off in the MN governor's primary  DFLforever   Sep-12-10 12:44 AM   #5 
  - I Don't Think He Claims To Be Perfect  DemocratSinceBirth   Sep-12-10 05:58 AM   #9 
  - I didn't know enough about Minnesota then to make his prediction  Hansel   Sep-13-10 02:04 PM   #23 
  - I'm betting against Nate this time nt  flamingdem   Sep-12-10 12:58 AM   #6 
  - No Need To Bet Against Him, Remember, His Analysis Is A Snapshot Of THIS MOMENT IN TIME  Beetwasher   Sep-13-10 12:37 PM   #18 
     - Good point. I agree.*  DrToast   Sep-13-10 02:39 PM   #24 
  - Kick  angee_is_mad   Sep-12-10 02:12 AM   #7 
  - People usually think "their" congresscritter is okay  krispos42   Sep-12-10 02:15 AM   #8 
  - No so much a "rebuttal" as an explanation for why they differ.  FBaggins   Sep-12-10 06:53 AM   #10 
  - There's only hope if we work our asses off. No need for "pretty strong rebuttals" to...  ClassWarrior   Sep-12-10 07:36 AM   #11 
  - Nate is good for the most part  Ramulux   Sep-12-10 08:29 PM   #12 
  - Not a rebuttal. He explains how these models work. Interesting to read, and of course,  Mass   Sep-12-10 08:46 PM   #14 
  - Nate Silver's predictions are based on how the election would go, BASED ON TODAY'S POLLS.  backscatter712   Sep-12-10 09:39 PM   #15 
  - I think many will be proven wrong on election day.  JNelson6563   Sep-13-10 12:35 PM   #17 
  - Do you agree with electoral-vote.com's prediction that Republicans will win control of the Senate?  DrSteveB   Sep-13-10 12:52 PM   #19 
  - I know this post isn't to me, but I disagree with them that Repubs. will take the Senate because  jenmito   Sep-13-10 12:57 PM   #20 
  - I disagree but at least the Electoral-vote.com's model changes frequently concerning the Senate  craigmatic   Sep-13-10 09:19 PM   #25 
  - They'll probably end up one short and then I'll say  harun   Sep-13-10 01:07 PM   #21 
  - Nate is good at what he does, but what he does is limited  Bluenorthwest   Sep-13-10 01:07 PM   #22 
 

Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC