You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #16: I think you are overly optimistic [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
zipplewrath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-22-10 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
16. I think you are overly optimistic
In the short run, no one will rate bonds, even good ones, because they don't know what the legal risks are. That's what has brought this to a full stop. Furthermore, again in the short run, the default position of a rating agency is going to be that ALL bonds are risky, with little differentiation between them.

Potentially, in the long run, without further legislation, all we'll ultimately get is a bunch of "low ratings" with nothing getting "high" ratings. So the rating companies can always claim they informed you they were "risky", but the market will be stuck chosing between "risky, very risky, hugely risky, amazingly risky.....".

As I say, the predominate problem here is that they created effectively a risky "legal" environment, without establishing guidelines for how an agency can actually state risk accurately. Ultimately the courts, and the regulators will establish some guidelines, but I strongly suspect they won't particularly change the underlying problem, which is that the investments basically are hard to assess in terms of risk.

There is a chance that the rating agencies might actually find a way to "expose" and quantify the risks so that you can see the underlying instruments. But that will be hard, especially for new products, as the liars always tend to be one step ahead of the rating agencies.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
  -While Y'all Were Kvetching About the Controversy Du Jour...Most Important News of the Year Happened alcibiades_mystery  Jul-22-10 01:41 PM   #0 
  - Thank you for this important lesson....  BrklynLiberal   Jul-22-10 01:43 PM   #1 
  - Let's keep our fingers crossed that some bad press about this  truedelphi   Jul-22-10 01:43 PM   #2 
  - and how did out cracker jack media miss this Little tid bit....  WCGreen   Jul-22-10 01:46 PM   #3 
  - Because it reflects negatively on all who have been involved...  JuniperLea   Jul-22-10 01:51 PM   #11 
  - because it's complicated  deacon_sephiroth   Jul-22-10 07:43 PM   #79 
  - So what you are saying is that it is only a matter of time before the administration starts ........  Exilednight   Jul-22-10 01:46 PM   #4 
  - I'm not sure how you extrapolated that bit of fiction from the OP...  JuniperLea   Jul-22-10 01:50 PM   #9 
  - ...  BrklynLiberal   Jul-22-10 01:57 PM   #15 
  - all 3 of my thumbs up for your post, JuniperLea.  Whisp   Jul-22-10 03:34 PM   #37 
  - While I have not seen any signs that the administration is backpedalling  customerserviceguy   Jul-23-10 07:40 AM   #119 
  - To the extent that people pay taxes on interest income (and they do),  JDPriestly   Jul-23-10 11:03 AM   #141 
     - High interest rates will hurt  customerserviceguy   Jul-23-10 09:19 PM   #155 
  - I thought that this provision did not make it into the bill.  JDPriestly   Jul-23-10 09:52 AM   #133 
  - Jumping to conclusions based on.....absolutely nothing...  Spazito   Jul-22-10 02:11 PM   #18 
  - I am basing my conclusion with the known facts .............  Exilednight   Jul-22-10 04:10 PM   #43 
     - "Trust me, they will unfreeze it..." does NOT equate to facts whatsoever...  Spazito   Jul-22-10 05:03 PM   #48 
     - If you'd been paying attention for the past 20 years or so..  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:28 PM   #52 
        - LOL, still not facts in response to my question to the previous poster...  Spazito   Jul-22-10 05:40 PM   #57 
           - Scroll down.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 08:27 PM   #82 
              - LOL, wrong again...  Spazito   Jul-23-10 11:17 AM   #143 
     - I see your point, and have thought similar things in the past.  tbyg52   Jul-22-10 05:28 PM   #53 
     - Blink? WHo cares who blinks.  MedicalAdmin   Jul-22-10 06:29 PM   #63 
        - There is no "blink" in any case  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 07:04 PM   #66 
        - Girl gone mad?  Exilednight   Jul-22-10 07:22 PM   #69 
        - I was referring to  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 07:33 PM   #71 
        - 60 will not be enough  bluescribbler   Jul-23-10 09:18 AM   #129 
        - Blinking didnt take too long : (  EJSTES2005   Jul-22-10 07:35 PM   #74 
        - I could say I told you so, but I'm not that kind of person.  Exilednight   Jul-22-10 07:37 PM   #75 
        - more..  EJSTES2005   Jul-22-10 07:37 PM   #76 
        - Translation: the law stands, ratings agencies will be on the hook, and we are NOT permenently  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 07:40 PM   #78 
           - The OP fails. Six months now, let's wait six months and see what happens then ..........  Exilednight   Jul-22-10 09:14 PM   #93 
              - The law stands  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 09:38 PM   #94 
                 - The RA's claim they were caught off guard...  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 10:47 PM   #103 
                    - They were screaming about this when the SEC requested comments  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 11:01 PM   #105 
                       - I don't think anything will be dramatically different in 6 months.  girl gone mad   Jul-23-10 07:39 AM   #118 
                          - You say  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 08:14 AM   #122 
        - Blinking, schminking  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 07:39 PM   #77 
        - Extension?  unlawflcombatnt   Jul-26-10 06:46 PM   #156 
        - Yeah, and I can decide whether I want to buy an unrated bond or not.  NBachers   Jul-22-10 09:56 PM   #98 
        - Huh?  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 08:37 PM   #85 
           - The repeal is NOT gone: 436(g) is still dead and buried for ratings agencies  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 08:47 PM   #87 
              - The SEC could certainly undo the intent of the repeal.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 10:58 PM   #104 
                 - Come on  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 11:04 PM   #106 
        - "The question is do the DEMS have the cojones to go the distance?"  paulkienitz   Jul-22-10 09:08 PM   #91 
           - They already did  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 09:40 PM   #95 
  - Fucking poppycock  HughMoran   Jul-23-10 09:09 AM   #126 
  - CNBC, the ESPN of the financial world  liberal N proud   Jul-22-10 01:46 PM   #5 
  - They sound like they are selling Sham-Wows!  JuniperLea   Jul-22-10 01:52 PM   #12 
     - !  vaberella   Jul-22-10 02:16 PM   #20 
  - Methinks they doth protest too much. In the same manner that there are supposed to be  T Wolf   Jul-22-10 01:46 PM   #6 
  - That was an awesome explanation!  JustAnotherGen   Jul-22-10 01:47 PM   #7 
  - I wonder if Kudlow will cover this....LOL...n/t  monmouth   Jul-22-10 01:49 PM   #8 
  - You should be a teacher, honestly, I absolutely understand everything  monmouth   Jul-22-10 01:50 PM   #10 
  - If You Were Standing in Front of Me, I Would Kiss You Full on The Lips  Yavin4   Jul-22-10 01:55 PM   #13 
  - Two reasons they did that..1) great big fees from the bond sellers 2) they really didn't understand.  truebrit71   Jul-22-10 04:33 PM   #45 
  - Sadly ...  Kweli4Real   Jul-22-10 06:59 PM   #65 
  - Thanks so much for that clear explanation.  Kdillard   Jul-22-10 01:56 PM   #14 
  - I think you are overly optimistic  zipplewrath   Jul-22-10 02:05 PM   #16 
  - If that's true  creeksneakers2   Jul-23-10 12:41 PM   #151 
  - Excellent OP!  Spazito   Jul-22-10 02:08 PM   #17 
  - Yup  Beetwasher   Jul-22-10 02:14 PM   #19 
  - Good stuff. Yet this (meaning financial reform) was bashed to no end. n/t  vaberella   Jul-22-10 02:17 PM   #21 
  - And it's still being bashed here on DU...  JuniperLea   Jul-22-10 02:55 PM   #27 
  - what, Obama did something good?? Can't be! Isn't he the Antichrist?  Aramchek   Jul-22-10 02:18 PM   #22 
  - The Antichrist isn't muslim!  meowomon   Jul-23-10 09:47 AM   #131 
  - Insightful post about real world effects, thank you  Uzybone   Jul-22-10 02:34 PM   #23 
  - Wonderful OP.  great white snark   Jul-22-10 02:41 PM   #24 
  - Kick  pinto   Jul-22-10 02:48 PM   #25 
  - Kayandarr! eom  boppers   Jul-22-10 02:50 PM   #26 
  - A pretty worthless piece  izquierdista   Jul-22-10 02:56 PM   #28 
  - Take your arrogance and shove it.  Hosnon   Jul-22-10 02:57 PM   #29 
  - Huh?  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 03:04 PM   #32 
  - Joke...  Hosnon   Jul-22-10 03:10 PM   #33 
  - Yes - there are MORE IMPORTANT THINGS.  MedicalAdmin   Jul-22-10 06:32 PM   #64 
     - 'Zactly. nt.  Hosnon   Jul-22-10 09:10 PM   #92 
  - What is to stop the issuer from going to a smaller rating agency?  Freddie Stubbs   Jul-22-10 02:58 PM   #30 
  - Nothing  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 03:04 PM   #31 
  - Good post, thank you! k/r  CakeGrrl   Jul-22-10 03:19 PM   #34 
  - Substance? In GD?  JNelson6563   Jul-22-10 03:22 PM   #35 
  - thank you very much, a_m  Whisp   Jul-22-10 03:32 PM   #36 
  - Thanks for the clear, concise explanation! n/t  morillon   Jul-22-10 03:48 PM   #38 
  - i believe they are also requiring these bond bundles  mopinko   Jul-22-10 03:53 PM   #39 
  - thank you! nt  Clio the Leo   Jul-22-10 03:56 PM   #40 
  - I think they've already found ways around it, and regulators will soon cave anyhow.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 04:06 PM   #41 
  - Let them, it's their last resort  ProSense   Jul-22-10 04:36 PM   #46 
  - The regulators have already blinked.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:14 PM   #49 
     - It's not a rumor, it's  ProSense   Jul-22-10 05:27 PM   #51 
        - Call it what you like.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:33 PM   #54 
           - What happens after the compliance period?  ProSense   Jul-22-10 05:39 PM   #55 
              - You are assuming that the change will withstand 6 months of industry pressure.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:40 PM   #58 
                 - Right, because all their lobbying pressure succeeded in removing it from the bill?  ProSense   Jul-22-10 05:43 PM   #60 
                    - "It's not going away."  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 08:31 PM   #84 
                       - No it hasn't  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 08:48 PM   #88 
                          - For all intents and purposes, the regulators have backed down..  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 10:15 PM   #100 
                             - "For all intents and purposes..."  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 10:22 PM   #102 
                                - Well, let's just give the entire industry a six month reprieve on FinReg..  girl gone mad   Jul-23-10 07:51 AM   #120 
                                   - Actually, there are numerous other new provisions for the ratings agencies  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 08:12 AM   #121 
  - I have to go cook dinner for my fam, but I'll explain to you afterwards  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 05:03 PM   #47 
  - It doesn't really matter.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:19 PM   #50 
     - This is actually good news  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 06:13 PM   #62 
        - I think you've got some coke-bottle thick rose colored glasses on today.  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 08:47 PM   #86 
           - Six months is reasonable time for  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 08:50 PM   #89 
              - "vague imaginings, general pessimism, and very little knowledge of the issues"  HughMoran   Jul-23-10 09:15 AM   #128 
                 - Who Need s Facts When You Can Trust Your GUT About What's REALLY Gonna Happen!!!  Beetwasher   Jul-23-10 10:32 AM   #138 
  - Really? It's certain Obama would veto such a repeal--How can they claim  librechik   Jul-23-10 12:34 PM   #150 
  - Thanks for posting this. You made something that normally glazes my eyes over understandable.  SalviaBlue   Jul-22-10 04:10 PM   #42 
  - How dare you post about meaningful success on this website, heathen.  Starbucks Anarchist   Jul-22-10 04:26 PM   #44 
  - SEC Grants Delay on Ratings for Asset-Backed Debt  girl gone mad   Jul-22-10 05:39 PM   #56 
  - At least investors won't have a false sense of security anymore. n/t  rucky   Jul-22-10 05:42 PM   #59 
  - Shame on you for posting this here  impik   Jul-22-10 05:54 PM   #61 
  - kick to mark to read all later. thx. n/t  RainDog   Jul-22-10 07:11 PM   #67 
  - Thanks for the post! nt  valerief   Jul-22-10 07:20 PM   #68 
  - I hope that this works  Shireling   Jul-22-10 07:28 PM   #70 
  - Together with the other mechanisms, of course  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-22-10 07:35 PM   #73 
     - iirc, the ratings agencies were really where accountability faltered  RainDog   Jul-22-10 10:21 PM   #101 
  - K&R  DeSwiss   Jul-22-10 07:34 PM   #72 
  - K&R  Little Star   Jul-22-10 08:11 PM   #80 
  - SOME good news n/t  ejbr   Jul-22-10 08:27 PM   #81 
  - Good news if there is a positive outcome of this bill...  liberation   Jul-22-10 08:29 PM   #83 
  - glad to hear some good news for a change  paulkienitz   Jul-22-10 09:06 PM   #90 
  - This is very helpful indeed. Still--  eridani   Jul-22-10 09:52 PM   #96 
  - Could this be the reason US bonds are being bought by the truckload now? TIA  uponit7771   Jul-22-10 09:55 PM   #97 
  - Thank you so much  laylah   Jul-22-10 09:56 PM   #99 
  - Yes. This is the kind of change I voted for too.  JDPriestly   Jul-22-10 11:09 PM   #107 
  - I'm sure we can count on left pundits to tout this accomplishment for Obama!  Radical Activist   Jul-22-10 11:21 PM   #108 
  - "What's your credit score?" --- it's a total scam that reaches clear down to the consumers.  Major Hogwash   Jul-22-10 11:23 PM   #109 
  - Anyone want to start a bond rating agency? We gotta find a couple  jtuck004   Jul-22-10 11:29 PM   #110 
  - LOL..count me in.  EmeraldCityGrl   Jul-23-10 03:36 AM   #113 
     - My wife told me that we don't have enough experience.  jtuck004   Jul-23-10 10:40 AM   #139 
  - K & R  Scurrilous   Jul-23-10 12:01 AM   #111 
  - Nice post and I would take it as good news  waronbanks   Jul-23-10 03:31 AM   #112 
  - KnR  Hekate   Jul-23-10 05:03 AM   #114 
  - Yes. This is good news. The law should also separate ratings houses  geckosfeet   Jul-23-10 06:54 AM   #115 
  - Excellent!.. I did not know this was in FinReg..  DCBob   Jul-23-10 07:11 AM   #116 
  - Good explanation. Unfortunately, this is still capitalism.  erfmasn   Jul-23-10 07:22 AM   #117 
  - I don't disagree with you  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 08:16 AM   #123 
  - After the phrase "asset backed bonds" all I read was "blah blah blah".  meowomon   Jul-23-10 08:19 AM   #124 
  - You can lead a horse to water, I guess  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 08:31 AM   #125 
  - I am sure you have other abilities, don't worry. But the financial news is good. nt  thereismore   Jul-23-10 09:39 AM   #130 
     - Thank you for the translation  meowomon   Jul-23-10 09:49 AM   #132 
  - K&R  Wednesdays   Jul-23-10 09:14 AM   #127 
  - K&R  wryter2000   Jul-23-10 09:55 AM   #134 
  - Sure, all about you. What about the rest of us?  russspeakeasy   Jul-23-10 10:12 AM   #135 
  - The Law never inhibited Arthur Andersen  sulphurdunn   Jul-23-10 10:18 AM   #136 
  - You can say that about any law  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 10:24 AM   #137 
     - Good laws that don't put bad  sulphurdunn   Jul-23-10 10:50 AM   #140 
  - Thank you for pointing this out. I admit I would have gone unaware of this significant victory.  leeroysphitz   Jul-23-10 11:11 AM   #142 
  - Thank you for taking the time to inform us "little" people what it REALLY means! Hurray!! n/t  1776Forever   Jul-23-10 11:25 AM   #144 
  - Huh?  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 11:38 AM   #145 
     - Thanks! Just wanted to say thank you for the time. I have no idea what this was all about until I  1776Forever   Jul-23-10 11:39 AM   #146 
  - You could have told us that without the sneer.  aquart   Jul-23-10 11:41 AM   #147 
  - Can you say "Due Diligence", or else?  on point   Jul-23-10 11:48 AM   #148 
  - I saw that and was intrigued.  Overseas   Jul-23-10 12:20 PM   #149 
  - Anyone still believe Breitbart's hit job was coincidence?  Moostache   Jul-23-10 12:43 PM   #152 
  - that's great news indeed. I never understood though why some people feel the need to gain focus on  Divine Discontent   Jul-23-10 12:45 PM   #153 
     - I don't see how I belittled anyone  alcibiades_mystery   Jul-23-10 03:30 PM   #154 

Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC