Reply #7: Why? Because Dilma is not Lula.

[Meshuga]

Dilma does not have the charisma of Lula (quite the opposite) and she is seen as someone who has little experience never even winning an election before. Brazilians are not dumb to just vote for a person automatically just because Lula "hand picked" her and supports her even if they think Lula is doing a good job.

And are you trying to say that the Lula administration was not pro-business at all? Both parties invite business and support social programs. Both parties are for mixed economies and have similar policies. You are relying on labels (and what they mean in the US) to understand Brazilian politics and that is why it seems complicated to you. People in Brazil who like one party or the other (Petistas and Tucanos) will use the "left versus right" rhetoric to demonize the other side but the truth is that the candidates are very similar. To say that Serra is "right wing" is equivalent to a Tea Party person calling Obama a socialist/communist. There is no truth to the charge except for those who want to accept the label as a fact.

It would be nice if it was that easy to define Brazilian politics but it isn't. I don't think the Green Party will endorse either candidate because they are worried about being opposition in the 2014 elections but there are individuals in the party choosing to support either Serra or Dilma and that is not surprising. Fernando Gabeira, for example, is a high profile Green (and a lefty) who is supporting Serra.

PSDB and PT are liberal parties in the modern American sense of the word. PSDB is a party that was designed based on the Democratic Party in the US. Both parties have diverse coalitions that include progressive elements and conservative elements. Lula's vice president is a conservative who represents business interests. Does that make Lula right wing? Hardly.

Lula is very popular with 80% approval rating but why do you think this does not translate to more than 60% votes for Dilma? The answer is simple: Dilma is not Lula and not everyone likes her or trusts her. Places like Rio de Janeiro (where the population is more educated and where Marina Silva thrived) are more likely to vote for Serra. The poor areas with the less educated people likes Lula and will vote for Dilma. At least that is the demographics of the election so far.

Being "affluent" and "educated" does not mean the person is not progressive.