11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Fraud Component

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Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/cbsrMx

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model:  The Fraud Component

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.ht...

Nov 1, 2010

The Fraud Component

Since 2000, LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote-count shares, while RV poll projections closely matched unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls. In each election, the final exit polls were "forced" to match the recorded vote-count. . In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required impossible returning-Bush-voter turnout in order to match the recorded vote. Since pre-election LV poll predictions also matched the recorded vote, what can we conclude?

Pre-election:
Fraud factor = Registered voter (RV) projection – Likely voter (LV) projection (i.e. recorded vote)

Senate
Fraud factor = 3.9% = 54.3 – 50.4

Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a 1-seat gain for the GOP (Table 5)

.

House
Fraud factor = 3.0% = 53.3 - 50.3

Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a 4-seat gain for the GOP (Table 7)

.

Post-election:
Fraud factor = Unadjusted exit poll – Final exit poll (forced to matched the recorded vote)

(Note: The mainstream media (National Election Pool)  did not release  unadjusted-state or un-forced preliminary-national exit polls in 2008, and they won’t in 2010, either.

Table 5

GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch

Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection (zero fraud)

RV&LV

 

RV/LV – Undecided Vote Allocation to GOP

 

 

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

 

VoteSwitch GOP

 

Net Senate Seat Gain

RV ( true vote )


LV ( recorded )

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%

3.0
3.9
5.0
6.2
7.3

3.6
4.7
5.8
7.0
8.1

4.3
5.2
6.5
7.7
8.7

4.9
6.1
7.3
8.5
9.4

5.6
6.7
8.0
8.9
9.8

 

 

 

GOP Total Senate Seats

RV ( true vote )


LV ( recorded )

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%

44.0
44.9
46.0
47.2
48.3

44.6
45.7
46.8
48.0
49.1

45.3
46.2
47.5
48.7
49.7

45.9
47.1
48.3
49.5
50.4

46.6
47.7
49.0
49.9
50.8

Table 7

Sensitivity Analysis, GOP House Forecast:  
# of GOP House Seats

Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection

Base case assumptions:    50% UVA to GOP    Zero Vote-switch % to GOP
 

RV Projections

 

Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP

 

 

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

 

 

 

GOP House Seats

Vote Switch
% to GOP
 

No Fraud
1%
2%
3%

216
221
225
229

219
223
227
232

221
225
230
234

223
228
232
236

226
230
234
239

 

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls