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10/22 Richard Charnin Midterms Forecast: Dems need 75% turnout & 75% of undecideds to win House [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-25-10 10:33 PM
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10/22 Richard Charnin Midterms Forecast: Dems need 75% turnout & 75% of undecideds to win House
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Edited on Mon Oct-25-10 10:55 PM by tiptoe
Richard Charnins 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraudbit.ly/baN7Sa

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.ht...

October 22, 2010

The House and Senate forecast models include a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and assume the election is held today.

All Pre-election polls interview registered (RV) voters; likely voters (LV) are a sub-sample based on the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). But realclearpolitics.com and the media focus on likely voters. During the last month in every election cycle, RV polls are largely unreported by the media.

Approximately 70% of registered voters polled are likely voters. Recent Generic polls show that Democrats comprise 48% of registered voters who are not considered likely to vote compared to 34% for the Republicans.

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

Oct. 22, 2010     House and Senate Forecast Summary

 
 
Average Poll Share
Dem
 
Projected Share (%)
 
Simulated Seat Proj
WinProb

 
Senate
Weighted Average
RV (18) & LV (19)
LV (18) & LV (19)
Difference

CNN / Time
Weighted AverageUnWeighted Average
Generic Ballot
Recent Polls
RV
LV
Difference
Total

2010 Polls
Non-Rasmussen
Rasmussen (LV)
Difference
Total
Polls


37
37




18
18


18
18




23
28

51


137
40

177
Dem
%

45.5
42.6
 2.8



49.4
46.8
 2.6

46.5
44.6
 1.9



44.1
41.3
 2.8
42.6


43.3
37.2
 6.1
41.9
GOP
%

44.5
46.6
(2.1)



40.4
45.3
(4.9)

41.3
45.7
(4.4)



45.2
47.8
(2.6)
46.6


45.5
45.3
 0.3
45.5
Spread
%

0.9
(3.9)
4.9



8.9
1.5
7.4

5.2
(1.1)
6.3



(1.1)
(6.5)
5.4
(4.1)


(2.2)
(8.1)
5.9
(3.6)
 
Dem
%

50.5
48.0
 2.4



54.5
50.7
 3.7

52.6
49.4
 3.2



49.5
46.8
 2.7
48.0


48.9
46.0
 2.9
48.2
GOP
%

49.5
52.0
(2.4)



45.5
49.3
(3.7)

47.4
50.6
(3.2)



50.5
53.3
(2.7)
52.0


51.1
54.1
(2.9)
51.8
 
Dem


52.7
50.7
 2.0



11
8
3

-
-
-



213
201
 12
207


211
198
 13
208
GOP


45.3
47.3
(2.0)



7
10
(3)

-
-
-



222
234
(12)
228


224
237
(13)
227
GOP


0%
4%
-



-

-







65%
99%
-
92%


75%
100%
-
90%
 

Senate Forecast

Based on the latest LV polls, the Monte Carlo Simulation projects a 51-47 seat Democratic majority.
The GOP has a 4% probability of winning the Senate.

Based on mix of RV and LV polls the Democrats will have a 53-45 majority.
The GOP has a 0% win probability.

CNN/Time has posted 18 polls (RV and corresponding LV-subsample polls).

The true composite average must be weighted by state voting population.
It would be misleading to show only the un-weighted average.

There is a 7.5% difference in margin between the RV and LV weighted average.

The Democrats lead the RV poll weighted average by 49.4-40.4%, a 9.0% margin.
The Democrats lead the LV poll weighted average by 46.8-45.3%, a 1.5% margin.

There is a 3.7% difference in margin between the weighted- and unweighted-average RV poll.
There is a 2.6% difference in margin between the weighted- and unweighted average LV poll.

House Generic Ballot

Starting Oct. 11, RCP no longer includes RV polls in the Generic Average.

The GOP has a 1.1% lead in the latest 23 RV polls and a 6.5% margin in the latest 28 LV polls.


Based on the latest 28 LV Generic polls, the GOP has a 99% probability of winning the House (234 seats).
Based on the latest 23 RV polls, the GOP has a 65% win probability (222 seats).

In 2010, 40 of the 177 polls listed are Rasmussen LV polls, in which the GOP leads by 8.1%.
The GOP leads by just 2.2% in the other 137 polls.
Apparently RCP believes that Rasmussen is a non-partisan pollster since he is included in the RCP average of non-partisan affiliated polls.

In the latest Gallup LV polls, the GOP leads by 56-39 in the low turnout model and by 53-42 in the high turnout model.
The full 3000-sample RV is not shown. The GOP leads by 47-44.
The Democrats lead by 48-35% among the 1100 RV respondents who were excluded by the LV-cutoff.

Not a single Zogby Generic 2010 poll is listed by RCP.
The latest Zogby LV shows a 45-45 tie.



The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters, of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered votersfirst-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.
...
– more here and see Simon

Projecting Voter Turnout

In 2010, Generic RV and LV polls project that approximately 70% of registered voters will vote.
Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.

Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of "unlikely voters" ('RV minus LV') closely matched their National Exit Poll share of "new" voters ('DNV').

In 2004, final pre-election polls* indicated that Kerry had a 57.7% share of RV deemed by the LVCM "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The '04 12:22am Prelim Nat'l Exit Poll showed Kerry had a  57%  share of first-time voters and other RV who did not vote in 2000 ('DNV').

In 2008, the final pre-election polls indicated that Obama had a 73.3% share of the "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The vote-count-matched Final Nat'l Exit Poll showed him with a 71% share of the first-time and other voters who did not vote in 2004 ('DNV').

*NOTE:The respectively-aggregated 2004 RV & LV-subsample final polls of CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew give independent confirmation to the Preliminary exit poll of 2004 (Kerry, 51-48%, 1% MoE), not to the Final that was "forced" to match the recorded vote-count (Bush 51-48% and secret). For 2008, the equivalent preliminary exit poll has been suppressed by the corporate consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS, NBC.

The projected turnout of registered voters is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sample / RV poll sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem [RV-LV] / (Dem [RV-LV] + GOP [RV-LV])

Forecasting, Sensitivity Analysis and Win Probabilities based on RV and LV Polls (see source)

Pollsters Are Paid To Predict the Recorded Vote - Not the True Vote (see here)

The Fraud Component

Historically, projections based on final pre-election LV polls underestimated voter turnout and yet closely matched impossible final exit polls and fraudulent recorded vote counts. Projections based on final pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) were a close match to the unadjusted preliminary exit polls and the True Vote.

Pre-election Model:
Recorded vote share = LV poll projection = RV poll projection + Fraud component

Post-election Model:
Recorded vote share = Final Exit Poll = Unadjusted Preliminary Exit Poll + Fraud component


Senate:

Projected GOP LV (Recorded) Share (CNN/Time RV & LV):
LV Poll Projection = 50.6 = 47.4 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 3.2%.

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 2 seats (Table 5).

Projected GOP House Vote Share:
Share = 53.3 = 50.5 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 2.8%

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 4 seats (Table 7).

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Election Fraud

In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see2004FinalPre-electionPolls).bit.ly/d2yEQhbit.ly/claROebit.ly/aW4gYX

Final exit polls are always "forced" to match the recorded vote count...(i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote count is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectively). In the 2004 Final NEP (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (1% MoE, 13047 respondents). For 2008, the NEP media consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed results of fifty-one unadjusted-state and three un-forced preliminary-national exit polls.
...
– more here (scroll down) –


Table 1
2010 Midterms:Senate and House Forecast Model
Senate Forecast Simulation Summary


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/se... bit.ly/azDXlw

22-Oct

Senate

Current
100
Dem
57
GOP
41
Ind
2
Simulation¹
Forecast Seats

Poll Type
RV(18) & LV(19)
LV(18) & LV(19)

Count
37
37
Dem
52.7
50.8
GOP
45.3
47.2
GOP Win Prob²
0.0%
4.0%



CNN/Time
Weighted Avg
RV
LV sub-sample

UnWeightd Avg
RV
LV sub-sample




18
18


18
18


Poll Share
Dem
Projection
Dem
49.4%
46.8%


46.5%
44.6%
GOP
40.4%
45.3%


41.3%
45.7%
Margin
9.0%
1.5%


5.2%
(1.1%)
Dem
54.5%
50.7%


52.6%
49.4%
GOP
45.5%
49.3%


47.4%
50.6%



ASSUMPTIONS
Fraud
MoE
UVA
Base Case
0.0%
4.0%
50.0%

Vote-share deviation to GOP, 1988-2004
Poll margin of error
Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP






Seats
Current

Dem
57

GOP
41
 

Ind
2
 

 
Projection (table)
Seats
RV&LV
LV

RV&LV
Flip to
Lean
Safe
Tossup

Dem
54
51


1
1
10
6

GOP
44
47


4
3
17
0





NOTES:
Average of a 200 election trial simulation
Probability of winning a 50 senate seat majority

22-Oct
*tossup
Poll Type
Poll Share %
Dem %
Projection Share (%)
GOP
Within


Weighted Avg
Weighted Avg


AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA

CO
CT
DE
FL
GA

HI
IA
ID
IL
IN

KS
KY
LA
MD
MO

NC
ND
NH
NV
NY1

NY2
OH
OK
OR
PA

SC
SD
UT
WA
VT

WI
WV
 
37
37


Held By
R
R
D
R
D

D*
D
D
R
R

D
R
R
D*
D

R
R*
R
D
R

R
D
R
D
D

D
R
R
D
D*

R
R
R
D*
D

D*
D

RV&LV

OnlyLV


RV

RV

RV

RV
RV
RV
RV





RV



RV


RV




RV
RV

RV
RV


RV




RV


RV
RV
Dem
45.5
42.6



22
30
42
37
56

47
56
61
31
34

68
37
27
42
34

27
46
33
54
39

40
25
44
43
60

67
43
24
54
45

30
30
25
48
64

45
45
GOP
44.5
46.6



36
59
53
51
37

44
37
32
42
52

20
55
64
38
50

67
46
54
38
50

48
69
51
32
33

39
49
67
37
45

70
70
52
44
29

48
38
Dem
50.5
48.0



43.0
35.5
44.5
43.0
59.5

51.5
59.5
64.5
44.5
41.0

74.0
41.0
31.5
52.0
42.0

30.0
50.0
39.5
58.0
44.5

46.0
28.0
46.5
55.5
63.5

64.0
47.0
28.5
58.5
50.0

30.0
30.0
36.5
52.0
67.5

48.5
53.5
GOP
49.5
52.0



57.0
64.5
55.5
57.0
40.5

48.5
40.5
35.5
55.5
59.0

26.0
59.0
68.5
48.0
58.0

70.0
50.0
60.5
42.0
55.5

54.0
72.0
53.5
44.5
36.5

36.0
53.0
71.5
41.5
50.0

70.0
70.0
63.5
48.0
32.5

51.5
46.5
Win Prob




100%
100%
100%
100%
0%

23%
0%
0%
100%
100%

0%
100%
100%
16%
100%

100%
50%
100%
0%
100%

98%
100%
96%
0%
0%

0%
93%
100%
0%
50%

100%
100%
100%
16%
0%

77%
4%
Flip
5





GOP













GOP


Dem





GOP
















GOP

MoE
10









CO








IL



KY




NC

NH




OH


PA




WA


WI
WV


Table 1a
Registered vs Likely Voters

CNN/TIME
.96 correlation ratio between RV and LV margins
























18
Polls
Average
Wtd Avg
Win

AK
AR
CA
CO
CT

DE
FL
IL
KY
MO

NV
NY1
NY2
OH
PA

WA
WI
WV
RV Full Sample
Dem
46.5
49.4
10

41
22
56
47
56

61
31
42
46
39

43
60
67
43
45

48
45
45
Rep
41.3
40.4
6

53
36
37
44
37

32
42
38
46
50

32
33
39
49
45

44
48
38
Margin
5.2
8.9
4

(12)
(14)

19
3
19

29
(11)
4
0
(11)

11
27
28
(6)
0

4
(3)
7
 
LV subsample
Dem
44.6
46.8
7

23
41
52
44
54

57
32
43
42
40

40
55
57
40
44

51
44
44
Rep
45.7
45.3
10

37
55
43
49
44

38
46
42
49
53

42
41
41
55
49

43
52
44
 
50% of RV-LV
Dem
45.6
48.1
9

32.0
31.5
54.0
45.5
55.0

59.0
31.5
42.5
44.0
39.5

41.5
57.5
62.0
41.5
44.5

49.5
44.5
44.5
Rep
43.5
42.9
9

45.0
45.5
40.0
46.5
40.5

35.0
44.0
40.0
47.5
51.5

37.0
37.0
40.0
52.0
47.0

43.5
50.0
41.0
Margin
2.1
5.2
0

(13.0)
(14.0)

14.0
(1.0)
14.5

24.0
(12.5)
2.5
(3.5)
(12.0)


4.5
20.5
22.0
(10.5)
(2.5)


6.0
(5.5)
3.5
Prob
77%
97%


0%
0%
100%
36%
100%

100%
0%
84%
11%
0%

97%
100%
100%
0%
19%

98%
3%
91%


Table 1b
Sensitivity Analysis: RV vs. LV Polls

Effect of LV-excluded RV Turnout and Vote Switch on Democratic Seats


18 polls
Turnout of LV-excluded Registered Voters (RV- LV)

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

 
Democratic Senate Wins


Vote Switch
% to GOP
 
 
None
1%
2%
3%
4%
7
6
6
6
5
9
6
6
6
5
9
9
7
5
5
10
9
8
6
5
10
10
7
7
6


Table 2
Probability Distribution of GOP Net Gains (refer to source)


Table 3
Projection Trend (refer to source)


Table 4
GOP Senate Seat Forecast

Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type   (refer to source)


Table 5
GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch

Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection (zero fraud)

RV&LV
RV/LV – Undecided Vote Allocation to GOP

40%
45%
50%
55%
60%

 
Net Senate Seat Gain



Vote
Switch
to GOP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
3
4
5
7
7
3
5
6
7
8
3
5
6
8
9
5
5
8
9
9
5
7
9
9
10

 
GOP Total Senate Seats






0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
44
45
46
48
48
44
46
47
48
49
44
46
47
49
50
46
46
49
50
50
46
48
50
50
51


Table 6
House Generic Ballot Forecasting Model   
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_c...

 

 
PROJECTION  UVA
50%
50%
 
CURRENT   SEATS
178
255


Latest
POLL AVERAGE
PROJECTED 2-PARTY %
Projected Seats
3% MoE GOP

Model
RV
LV

Total

2010
RV
LV
A

Total
Polls
23
28

51

Polls
98
76
3

177
GOP
45.2
47.8

46.6

GOP
45.1
46.1
40.0

45.5
Dem
44.1
41.3

42.6

Dem
43.8
39.4
43.3

41.9
Spread
1.1
6.5

4.1

Spread
1.3
6.7
(3.3)

3.6
GOP
50.5
53.3

52.0

GOP
50.7
53.4
48.3

51.8
Dem
49.5
46.8

48.0

Dem
49.3
46.6
51.7

48.2
Margin
1.1
6.5

4.1

Margin
1.3
6.7
(3.3)

3.6
GOP
222
234

228

GOP
222
234
212

227
Dem
213
201

207

Dem

213
201
223

208
WinProb
65%
99%

92%

WinProb

67%
100%
14%

90%


Table 7
Sensitivity Analysis, GOP House Forecast:  
# of GOP House Seats

Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection

Base case assumptions:    50% UVA to GOP    Zero Vote-switch % to GOP
 

Projections
Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP

40%
45%
50%
55%
60%

 
GOP House Seats


Vote Switch
% to GOP
No Fraud
1%
2%
3%
217
221
226
230
219
224
228
233
222
226
230
235
224
228
233
237
226
231
235
240
Sensitivity Analysis, GOP House Forecast:  
Probability of GOP winning a House Majority

Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection 


(refer to source)



Table 7a
Likely Voter Cutoff Model

Registered Voters
"Likely Voters"

Pollster
Newsweek
Pew Research
Associated Press/GfK
Gallup
FOX News
Reuters/Ipsos
CNN/Opinion Res
ABC News/Wash Post

Total
Date
10/21
10/18
10/18
10/17
10/13
10/11
10/7
10/3
Sample
848
1797
1338
3000
1200
854
938
879

10854
GOP %
42
46
46
47
41
46
47
43

45.3%
Dem %
48
42
47
44
39
44
47
47

44.3%
 
Sample
773
1354
846
1900
687
720
504
669

7453
GOP %
45
50
50
53
48
48
52
49

49.9%
Dem %
48
40
43
42
39
44
45
43

42.4%
 
Turnout
91%
75%
63%
63%
57%
84%
54%
76%

68.7%
GOP %
19%
41%
42%
44%
45%
44%
46%
29%

42.2%
Dem %
81%
59%
58%
56%
55%
56%
54%
71%

57.8%


Table 8
Latest Generic Polls

 
PROJECTION  UVA
50%
50%

POLL
 PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE      GOP
GOP
GOP
10-POLL MOVING AVERAGE        GOP     
GOP

Polling Firm
Newsweek
Newsweek
Pew Research
Pew Research
Associated Press/GfK

Associated Press/GfK
Democracy Corps (D)
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Gallup

NBC
FOX News
FOX News
Reuters/Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos
(source  for more)
Date
10/20-21
10/20-21
10/13-18
10/13-18
10/13-18

10/13-18
10/16-18
10/11-17
10/11-17
10/07-17

10/11-13
10/11-13
10/11-13
10/07-11
10/07-11
...
Sample
848
773
1797
1354
1338

846
801
3500
3000
1900

1000
1200
687
854
720
...
Type
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
LV
LV
RV
LV

RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
...
GOP
42
45
46
50
46

50
50
47
47
53

41
41
48
46
48
...
Dem
48
48
42
40
47

43
45
39
44
42

44
39
39
44
44
...
Spread
(6)
(3)

4
10
(1)

7
5
8
3
11

(3)
2
9
2
4
...
GOP
47.0
48.5
52.0
55.0
49.5

53.5
52.5
54.0
51.5
55.5

48.5
51.0
54.5
51.0
52.0
...
Dem
53.0
51.5
48.0
45.0
50.5

46.5
47.5
46.0
48.5
44.5

51.5
49.0
45.5
49.0
48.0
...
Margin
(6.0)
(3.0)
4.0
10.0
(1.0)

7.0
5.0
8.0
3.0
11.0

(3.0)
2.0
9.0
2.0
4.0
...
Seats
206
213
228
241
217

235
230
237
226
243

213
224
239
224
228
...
WinProb
4%
20%
96%
100%
36%

98%
92%
100%
95%
100%

17%
76%
99%
72%
86%
...
GOP
51.90
52.05
52.35
52.19
51.73

52.08
51.96
51.91
51.44
51.72

51.75
52.05
52.32
52.10
52.30
...
Dem
48.10
47.95
47.65
47.81
48.27

47.92
48.04
48.09
48.56
48.28

48.25
47.95
47.68
47.90
47.70
...
Margin
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
3.5

4.2
3.9
3.8
2.9
3.4

3.5
4.1
4.6
4.2
4.6
...
Seats
228
228
230
229
227

228
228
228
226
227

227
228
229
229
229
...


Table 9
Pollster Averages

 
POLL AVERAGE
GOP
 PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE      GOP
GOP
GOP

Polling Firm
Rasmussen Reports (LV)
Gallup
FOX News
CNN/Opinion Research
PPP (D)

Democracy Corps (D)
ABC News/Wash Post
Ipsos/McClatchy
Quinnipiac
Pew Research

USA Today/Gallup
Newsweek
Reuters/Ipsos
GWU/Battleground
Time

McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Associated Press/GfK
POS (R)
Bloomberg
National Journal/FD

Washington Post
Zogby
NPR
McClatchy/Marist
CBS News/NY Times

 Non-Rasmussen 
Count
40
37
15
11
8

9
7
4
4
6

3
5
5
3
2

2
4
2
2
1

1
1
1
1
2

137
Sample
3500
1611
906
861
784

861
774
913
1977
na

970
857
865
1000
915

1000
769
850
798
1200

na
2071
800
815
na

1053
MoE
1.7%
2.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%

3.3%
3.5%
3.2%
2.2%
3.0%

3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
3.1%
3.2%

3.1%
3.5%
3.4%
3.5%
2.8%

3.0%
2.2%
3.5%
3.4%
3.0%

3.0%
GOP
45.3
46.9
43.1
49.0
44.3

46.8
47.0
43.5
41.3
45.2

46.0
43.6
46.2
43.7
42.5

42.0
49.5
43.5
44.0
35.0

44.0
45.0
44.0
47.0
42.5

45.5
Dem
37.2
44.7
38.7
45.5
42.5

44.1
45.0
44.8
39.0
43.8

45.3
46.8
44.6
41.7
40.0

36.0
44.5
40.5
41.0
39.0

48.0
45.0
39.0
45.0
37.5

43.3
Spread
  8.1  
  2.2  
4.4
3.5
1.8

2.7
2.0
(1.3)
2.3
1.3

0.7
(3.2)
1.6
2.0
2.5

6.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
(4.0)

(4.0)
0.0
5.0
2.0
5.0

  2.2  
GOP
54.1
51.1
52.2
51.8
50.9

51.3
51.0
49.4
51.1
50.7

50.3
48.4
50.8
51.0
51.3

53.0
52.5
51.5
51.5
48.0

48.0
50.0
52.5
51.0
52.5

51.1
Dem
46.0
48.9
47.8
48.2
49.1

48.7
49.0
50.6
48.9
49.3

49.7
51.6
49.2
49.0
48.8

47.0
47.5
48.5
48.5
52.0

52.0
50.0
47.5
49.0
47.5

48.9
Margin
8.1
2.2
4.4
3.5
1.8

2.7
2.0
(1.3)
2.3
1.3

0.7
(3.2)
1.6
2.0
2.5

6.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
(4.0)

(4.0)
0.0
5.0
2.0
5.0

2.2
Seats
237
224
229
227
223

225
224
217
224
222

221
212
223
224
225

232
230
226
226
211

211
219
230
224
230

224
WinProb
100%
82%
91%
85%
69%

78%
71%
35%
84%
67%

58%
17%
68%
74%
78%

97%
92%
81%
80%
8%

10%
50%
92%
72%
95%

75%


Table 10
2006-2010 Registered and Likely Voter Poll Summary (refer to source)


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