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| Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (1/22-2007 thru 12/14/2010) |
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tiptoe
(1000+ posts)
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Thu Oct-14-10 11:38 PM Original message |
| Richard Charnin: Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes |
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Edited on Thu Oct-14-10 11:53 PM by tiptoe
Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes bit.ly/asy3aV Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll) source: http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm October 10, 2010 In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 62–59 million. It is a standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final exit poll to match the recorded vote-count. Do you agree that the 2004 Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote? Yes. Bush had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died, and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 46 million returning Bush voters. Do you agree? Yes. But the Final 2004 NEP indicates that 52.6 million Bush voters returned in 2004. That means there were 6.6 million phantom returning Bush voters. That is an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters. Do you agree? Yes. Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media? No. Table 1 2004 Final National "Exit Poll" Returning 2000 voters and 2004 vote shares forced to match the 2004 recorded vote: 93% turnout of living Gore 2000 voters 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters 98% turnout of living Nader and other third-party 2000 voters Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '00 Alive '04 - 48,454 47,937 3,756 2004 Turnout–Final NEP Final NEP forced-match results are impossible . New in 2004 and '00 Returns & Votes '04 20,790 45,249 52,586 3,669 Cast 125,737 Votes Counted 122,294 Votes :Final NEP Discrepancy : 4.6 million more Bush- 2000-voters than alive Turnout Mix required to force the match of the category Pres. Vote in 2000 Weights DNV Gore Bush Other 17% 37% 43% 3% 100% 100% (near exact match) 2004 Final National "Exit Poll" Vote shares Prelim NEP shares adjusted so category matched recorded secret vote count Kerry 54% 48.48%90% 9% 71% 48.27% .21% Bush 45% 50.72%10% 91% 8% 50.73% -.01% Other 1% 0.80%0% 0% 21% 1% -.20% Corresponding Votes after the Final NEP forced match with the 2004 recorded vote count share Kerry 11,227 59,28840,724 4,733 2,605 59,028 259 Bush 9,355 62,0274,525 47,853 294 62,041 -13 Other 208 9780 0 770 1,224 -246 Implied Turnout from Election 2000 - 93% 110% 98% That’s not all. According to the Census, nearly 111 million votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4 million recorded. Approximately 4.5 of the 6 million uncounted votes were for Gore. Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media? No. Table 2 2004 True Vote Model (An Introduction...) Assumptions: 98% returning voter turnout; based on 2000 total votes cast 2004PreliminaryNEP vote shares (12:22am, 13047 respondents, 1% MoE) Kerry wins by 10.5 million (53.5–45.2%) Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '00 Alive '04 - 53,324 48,706 3,395 105,424 2004 Turnout–True Vote Votes Cast 2000 & 2004, 5% mort, 98% turnout: New in 2004 and '00 Returns & Votes '04 22,421 52,257 47,732 3,327 Cast 125,737 Votes Counted 122,294 Votes :Final NEP Discrepancy : Turnout Mix for 98% of living 2004 voters returning and new voters Weights DNV Gore Bush Other 17.8% 41.6% 38.0% 2.6% 100% 100% 2004 Preliminary National Exit Poll Vote shares Independent confirmation v Final NEP Kerry 57% 53.50%91% 10% 65% 48.27% 5.23% Bush 41% 45.15%8% 90% 13% 50.73% -5.58% Other 2% 1.35%1% 0% 22% 1.00% .35% Corresponding Votes Kerry 12,780 67,27047,554 4,773 2,162 59,028 +8,241 Bush 9,194 56,7674,182 42,959 432 62,041 -5,273 Other 447 1,700521 0 732 1,224 476 Election 2004 Assume a Feasible Turnout of 2000 voters - 98% 98% 98% OK, now let's move on to 2008. Do you agree that the Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote-count? Yes. Then you must believe the Final NEP Obama and McCain weights and shares of returning and new voters. Yes. Table 3 2008 Final National "Exit Poll" Returning 2004 voter turnout forced to match the 2008 recorded vote count: 87% turnout of living Kerry 2004 voters 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters 452% turnout of living third party 2004 voters Obama wins the recorded vote by 9.5 million (52.9–45.6%) Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '04 Alive '08 - 56,077 58,939 1,163 116,179 2008 Turnout–Final NEP Forced weightings indicate impossible numbers of return voters '04 Returns & Votes '08 17,078 48,607 60,430 5,255 131,370 Recorded Vote-Count : Final NEP Discrepancy : 1.5 million more Bush- 2000-voters than alive. 4.1 mil more 3rd-party 2000-voters than alive. Turnout Mix required to force the match of the category Pres. Vote in 2004 Weights DNV Kerry Bush Other 13% 37% 46% 4% 100% 100% (near exact match) 2008 Final National "Exit Poll" Vote shares Prelim NEP suppressed. Forced to match recorded secret vote count Obama 71% 52.90%89% 17% 73% 52.87% .03% McCain 27% 45.57%10% 82% 16% 45.62% - .05% Other 2% 1.53%1% 1% 11% 1.51% - .02% Corresponding Votes after the Final NEP forced match with the 2008 recorded vote count share Obama 12,125 69,49543,260 10,273 3,836 69,457 38 McCain 4,611 59,8664,861 49,553 841 59,935 -70 Other 341 2,010486 604 578 1,978 32 Implied Turnout from Election 2004 - 87% 103% 452% The Final 2008 NEP indicates that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But that is not plausible (Bush had a 22% approval rating on Election Day 2008). Do you agree? Yes, 12 million more is not plausible – but is possible. But the Final 2008 NEP indicates a 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters. That is impossible, right? Yes. Therefore the Final NEP 46% returning Bush voter weighting must be incorrect, right? Yes. The 2008 Final NEP also indicates there were 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate). But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004. Therefore the Final NEP 4% returning third-party weighting must also be incorrect, right? Yes. The 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush and third-party voters. Therefore, Obama must have won by more than 9.5 million votes, right? Yes. Assume a feasible 97% turnout of living Bush, Kerry and third-party voters in 2008. We will also assume that there was zero fraud in 2004 (i.e., the recorded vote was equal to the True Vote). Table 4 Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (feasible returning voter mix) Assumptions: 97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality 2004 recorded vote share (Bush by 50.7-48.3%) Obama wins by 14.7 million (55.0–43.8%) Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '04 Alive '08 - 56,077 58,939 1,163 116,179 2008 Turnout–Adjstd NEP Assume zero '04 fraud, 5% mort & 97% turnout: New in 2008 and '04 Returns & Votes '08 18,677 54,395 57,170 1,128 131,370 Recorded Vote-Count : Final NEP Discrepancy : Turnout Mix Weights DNV Kerry Bush Other 14.2% 41.4% 43.5% 0.9% 100% 100% Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll Vote shares Prelim NEP suppressed. Final shares matched to recorded secret vote count Obama 71% 54.97%89% 17% 73% 52.87% 2.10% McCain 27% 43.80%10% 82% 16% 45.62% -1.82% Other 2% 1.23%1% 1% 11% 1.51% -.28% Corresponding Votes Obama 13,260 72,21448,411 9,719 824 69,457 +2,757 McCain 5,043 57,5435,440 46,880 181 59,935 -2,393 Other 373 1,613544 572 124 1,978 32 Election 2008 Assume a Feasible Turnout of 2004 voters - 97% 97% 97% But virtually all election analysts have concluded that the 2004 election was stolen. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. If Kerry won by the aggregate exit poll margin, then Obama won by 22 million votes – even assuming the Final NEP vote shares. Table 5 2008 True Vote Model I (based on 2004 total votes cast) Assumptions: 97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality Kerry won by 52-47% (Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate) Obama wins the True Vote by 22.0 million (57.0–41.8%) Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '04 Alive '08 - 62,073 56,181 1,196 119,450 2008 Turnout–TrueVote I VotesCast, St Exit Poll 5% mort, 97% turnout: New in 2008 and '04 Returns & Votes '08 16,441 60,211 54,496 1,160 131,370 Recorded Vote-Count : Final NEP Discrepancy : Turnout Mix Weights DNV Kerry Bush Other 12.4% 45.5% 41.2% 0.9% 100% 100% 2008 True Vote Model I Vote shares Obama 71% 56.97%89% 17% 73% 52.87% +4.10% McCain 27% 41.80%10% 82% 16% 45.62% -3.80% Other 2% 1.23%1% 1% 11% 1.51% -.28% Corresponding Votes Obama 11,673 75,37253,588 9,264 847 69,457 +5,915 McCain 4,439 55,3336,021 44,687 186 59,935 -4,603 Other 329 1,603602 545 128 1,978 -374 Election 2008 Assume a Feasible Turnout of 2004 voters - 97% 97% 97% But Table 2 shows that Kerry won the True Vote by over 10 million, with a 53.5% vote share. Let’s calculate the 2008 True Vote based on the 2004 True Vote. Table 6 2008 True Vote Model II Returning voter 97% turnout, turnout based on 2004 True Vote Assumptions: 97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality Kerry won the True Vote by 53.5-45.1% (Table 2) Obama wins the True Vote by 22.8 million (58.0–40.7%). Assume 5% 4yr mortality Est. # Voters '04 Alive '08 - 63,858 54,111 1,481 119,450 2008 Turnout– TrueVote II '04 VotesCast, TrueVote, 5% mort, 97% turnout: New in 2008 and '04 Returns & Votes '08 22,421 61,942 52,488 1,437 Cast 132,308 Votes Counted 131,370 Votes :Final NEP Discrepancy : Turnout Mix Weights DNV Kerry Bush Other 12.4% 46.8% 39.7% 1.1% 100% 100% 2008 True Vote Model II Vote shares Obama 71% 58.03%89% 17% 73% 52.87% 5.16% McCain 27% 40.74%10% 82% 16% 45.62% -4.88% Other 2% 1.23%1% 1% 11% 1.51% -.27% Corresponding Votes Obama 11,673 76,77455,129 8,923 1,049 69,457 7,317 McCain 4,439 53,9036,194 43,040 230 59,935 -6,032 Other 329 1,631619 525 158 1,978 -347 Election 2008 Assume a Feasible Turnout of 2004 voters - 97% 97% 97% Summary Arguments The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The 2008 True Vote Model used the same vote shares as the 2008 Final. So there can be no argument there. The 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters as indicated in the Final 2004 NEP was impossible. The impossible turnout was adjusted to a feasible 98%. So there can be no argument there. The 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible turnout was adjusted to a feasible 97%. So there can be no argument there. The 5.25 million returning third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible 452% turnout was adjusted to a feasible 97%. So there can be no argument there. Q. E. D. Sensitivity Analysis The following tables show that Obama won by a minimum of 20 million votes — even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%. The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Kerry and Bush voters. Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares): Obama has 56.8%, assuming a 69% share of new (DNV) voters and an 87% share of Kerry voters, a 19.7 million vote margin. Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares): Obama has 58.0%, assuming a 71% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Kerry voters, a 22.8 million vote margin. Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares): Obama has 59.2%, assuming a 73% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Kerry voters, a 26.0 million vote margin. Coincidentally, Obama had 59.2% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day. See Source: A) Turnout — Kerry x Bush B) Obama Share of New Voters (DNV) C) Obama Share of Kerry Voters |
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