Reply #54: Unlikely.

[Statistical]

One the govt borrowed money to make that "investment" that combined with massively overpaying for GM means that even a decade from now it is unlikely the govt investment will be profitable.

Govt stake in GM is roughly $42 billion.

However the money was given to GM over a year ago and any potential sale may not occur for another year. So while the govt invested $42 billion the current "cost" of that investment is about $45 billion. To break even at IPO the company would need to be worth about $75 billion (almost double the value of Ford which is far healthier). Lets say that GM is actually going to be worth $45 billion at time of IPO. Now lets say govt hangs onto GM stake for a decade and GM share price grows by 8% annually. In 2021 GM will be worth around $97 billion however the value of the money loaned to GM (accounting for interest on the debt) will be $117 billion. The taxpayer is still behind.

It is even worse when you consider inflation.