Reply #21: Your 'math' is pretty meaningless

[muriel_volestrangler]

You assume you know how many people will vote in total before you work out who they'll vote for. Your claim that the 'majority of independents swing in favor of whichever side they think is "winning"' needs backing up with some proper research (purely anecdotally, I've never known anyone that dumb that they go to the bother of voting just for the internal feeling of "I voted for the winner").

If you want 'math', here's an alternative scenario, starting from your assumptions, but a little better based in the real world:

50% of the Democrats vote Democrat without further persuasion = 35 million
50% of the Republicans vote R without further persuasion = 30 million
Democrats targetting Democrats gets another 20% of the remaining Ds to vote D = 7 million
Republicans targetting Independents gets 20% of the Is to vote R = 14 million

Result:
D = 35 + 7 = 42 million
R = 30 + 14 = 44 million - winning.

Ignore the Independents, and you ignore the largest uncommitted group.