Reply #6: Actually Obama's approval ratings in those polls are still pretty good

[liberalpragmatist]

That Suffolk poll has his favorability rating at 55%. And the PPP poll the other day had his approval rating at 57%.

The problems are...

(1) Congress is unpopular, the Massachusetts state Democrats are unpopular, the governor is unpopular, all of which is dragging her down.

(2) She also ran a completely complacent campaign and in the dead of winter many non-political types are not engaged, at all. That's true in ANY special election and even more so right now.

(3) On top of all that, MA Dems are actually a fairly fractious lot, with lots of conservative Democrats who have an ambivalent/often hostile relationship with the upper-income, Boston-area liberals. And a lot of blue-collar, conservative Democrats who Coakley isn't connecting with. At all.

(4) Lots of MA residents are independents, and though they're liberal-leaning and usually vote Dem, they have a tradition of ticket-splitting. And the non-political types tend to believe things like "spending is out of control," and "divided government works best," etc., which is further adding momentum for Brown.

I think Coakley will win, but it may be VERY tight. What really worries me is that Brown is the one who seems to have all the momentum, with Coakley stalled at just under 50%.

What's frustrating is that special elections are extremely difficult to poll and forecast. Coakley could well win by +5 points. Or she could lose by a similar margin. It's really hard to tell.