coalition_unwilling
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Mon Nov-23-09 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
| 75. I agree with you in theory. But somehow this one feels very different |
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from the models offered by theory and history. To wit, most economists say the Great Recession began in December of 2007. However, at the time, the national unemployment rate was still low by historical standards (not exactly full employment but certainly not > 8%). Only as the recession continued did the unemployment rate start to creep higher. So I would say that, this time is different, because employment has been a lagging indicator by historical standards.
I've seen talk elsewhere on DU that the shift from a manufacturing economy to a consumerist\service sector economy accounts for this shift of employment as leading\lagging indicator.
I'm still chewing on the phenomoneon and data, so this is just a feeling for now. But I'd be interested to hear your take on it.
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| -Wow, home sales up by record amount. |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 06:38 PM |
#0 |
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Who says tax breaks don't spur economic activity? |
GMA |
Nov-23-09 06:40 PM |
#1 |
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actually, wasn't it the impending end of the tax break that did it in october? |
dysfunctional press |
Nov-23-09 08:41 PM |
#74 |
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i just closed on a sale today |
paulsby |
Nov-23-09 10:58 PM |
#88 |
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as did the definition of 'first-time buyer'. |
dysfunctional press |
Nov-23-09 11:07 PM |
#89 |
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lol yes nt |
paulsby |
Nov-23-09 11:10 PM |
#90 |
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Every honest economist. |
jgraz |
Nov-23-09 10:01 PM |
#78 |
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Stop it! |
DJ13 |
Nov-23-09 06:42 PM |
#2 |
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No kidding, but it isn't very complicated to see what's really going on. |
girl gone mad |
Nov-23-09 10:22 PM |
#82 |
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I'm so sorry, Stinky. |
HiFructosePronSyrup |
Nov-23-09 06:42 PM |
#3 |
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I would welcome real recovery |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 06:46 PM |
#6 |
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No you wouldn't. |
HiFructosePronSyrup |
Nov-23-09 06:47 PM |
#7 |
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Do you have anything "discussional" to say? |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 06:51 PM |
#8 |
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Do you? |
HiFructosePronSyrup |
Nov-23-09 06:54 PM |
#13 |
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My feet hurt, and I need to get a filling replaced. |
Warren DeMontague |
Nov-23-09 07:03 PM |
#21 |
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Yup .... things are going swimmingly |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 06:54 PM |
#14 |
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Some people are under the delusion that recovery for a deep recession is going to happen overnight |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 06:58 PM |
#17 |
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Some people are sick of seeing that trickle down bullshit, bailing out the top 1% and ..... |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:02 PM |
#20 |
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How is the Stimulus Bill which is totally responible for the rise in home sales "trickle down" BS |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 07:06 PM |
#24 |
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Of course ...... you're right |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:09 PM |
# |
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Sorry to inform you of this - but when people buy new homes they buy stuff to go in it |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 07:13 PM |
#30 |
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except most of that stuff is made |
dana_b |
Nov-23-09 07:26 PM |
#41 |
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Yes - that's Obama's fault too |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:00 PM |
#55 |
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I thought we were talking fact? Why raise an issue of personalities? |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 08:07 PM |
#60 |
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They make mattresses in my state and bed frames and tables and chairs |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:15 PM |
#62 |
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What is with you and the personality crap? Is the irony completely lost on you that it must be ..... |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 08:24 PM |
#66 |
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Personality crap? Naw - it's all about the DOOOOOOOOOM |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:37 PM |
#72 |
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Actually I bought a new set of mixing bowls |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 08:40 PM |
#73 |
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The recession didn't stop outsourcing? |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 06:58 PM |
#18 |
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Hey! Hugh! |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:04 PM |
#23 |
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Paranoia |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 07:09 PM |
#26 |
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Hugh .... and I quote: |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:10 PM |
#27 |
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Some might say you're a coward for going ad hominem |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 07:12 PM |
#28 |
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I actually do, not that our current congress agrees or the President for that matter |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 07:37 PM |
#45 |
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Tough genie to put back in the bottle |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 08:01 PM |
#57 |
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Except taht we are China right now |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 08:03 PM |
#58 |
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Even customer service call center jobs are outsourced |
MellowOne |
Nov-23-09 08:33 PM |
#68 |
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It's infuriating, isn't it? |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 08:34 PM |
#69 |
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+1 |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 06:53 PM |
#10 |
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Burns his miserable ass |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 06:54 PM |
#12 |
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You know ...... you're really ...... |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:07 PM |
#25 |
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I'm hurt. He used to follow me around |
jgraz |
Nov-23-09 10:02 PM |
#79 |
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Please don't mistake increased activity.. |
girl gone mad |
Nov-23-09 10:35 PM |
#84 |
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I hate to teach econ 101 but jobs are a LEADING indicator on the way |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 06:44 PM |
#4 |
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Why is this such a hard concept for folks to understand? |
Cant trust em |
Nov-23-09 07:18 PM |
#35 |
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hear hear |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 07:20 PM |
#37 |
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I agree with you in theory. But somehow this one feels very different |
coalition_unwilling |
Nov-23-09 09:37 PM |
#75 |
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Not always. |
girl gone mad |
Nov-23-09 10:13 PM |
#81 |
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There's a lot of real estate bargains out there right now... |
JuniperLea |
Nov-23-09 06:45 PM |
#5 |
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That's the stimulus |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 06:53 PM |
#11 |
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Yep... |
JuniperLea |
Nov-23-09 06:57 PM |
#16 |
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And peopel are proud of it too |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 07:14 PM |
#32 |
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The "Yay Team!" mentality... |
JuniperLea |
Nov-23-09 07:19 PM |
#36 |
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Most of the stimubux unspent, talk of using the unspent part to pay down the debt ..... |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:25 PM |
#40 |
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1936 and taking the foot off the pedal |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 07:32 PM |
#43 |
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Indeed! |
JuniperLea |
Nov-23-09 07:58 PM |
#53 |
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Hey, you stink, you know it, you celebrate it! |
JuniperLea |
Nov-23-09 07:56 PM |
#51 |
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The whispered talk is a coming second dip when the comm'l real estate bust ....... |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 08:04 PM |
#59 |
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whispered doom DOOOOM |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:19 PM |
#65 |
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recovery = bubble = horseshit |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 06:52 PM |
#9 |
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But the average sale price is a quarter of what it was. |
louis-t |
Nov-23-09 06:57 PM |
#15 |
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Are you saying that home prices have DROPPED 75% since the Bush Bubble burst? |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 07:03 PM |
#22 |
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Around here some properties have dropped almost half from their phony bubble values. |
QC |
Nov-23-09 07:17 PM |
#34 |
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In some cases they've gone down more than 75% |
louis-t |
Nov-24-09 11:44 AM |
#93 |
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Hell, the Pontiac Silverdome sold for something like $550K |
Cant trust em |
Nov-23-09 07:16 PM |
#33 |
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not here. turnaround avg. about 2 mos., most at asking (nm) |
bevoette |
Nov-23-09 08:30 PM |
#67 |
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I'm still reeling since the stock market dropped to 3,000, like the DU "experts" said it would. |
Warren DeMontague |
Nov-23-09 07:01 PM |
#19 |
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LOL ! |
RagAss |
Nov-23-09 07:48 PM |
#48 |
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Is the beef jerky next to the carload of rice? |
A HERETIC I AM |
Nov-23-09 08:18 PM |
#64 |
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Well, if you would have bought gold.. |
girl gone mad |
Nov-23-09 10:44 PM |
#87 |
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True, gold is doing well. |
Warren DeMontague |
Nov-24-09 01:01 AM |
#91 |
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Let's take a real example: |
dixiegrrrrl |
Nov-23-09 07:13 PM |
#29 |
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I will let them know at my foreclosure lol |
Bluebear |
Nov-23-09 07:14 PM |
#31 |
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Tell that to the people in Michigan. We don't see it. nt |
Fire1 |
Nov-23-09 07:21 PM |
#38 |
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I'm on your side. |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 07:28 PM |
#42 |
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So being able to see the macro picture |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 07:35 PM |
#44 |
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We understand micro and macro but people out of work |
Fire1 |
Nov-23-09 07:51 PM |
#50 |
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I can't blame them, otoh Americans are woefully uneducated |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 07:57 PM |
#52 |
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Ok. I give you that. n/t |
Fire1 |
Nov-23-09 08:00 PM |
#54 |
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I knew it was sarcasm, Stinky but rather than jump in the midst |
Fire1 |
Nov-23-09 07:43 PM |
#47 |
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Did any of the following benefit MI??? |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:09 PM |
#61 |
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Nice .... Michiganders are whiners? |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-23-09 08:36 PM |
#70 |
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Have no fear, Stinky. Karma's a BIOTCH!!!! LOL!!! n/t |
Fire1 |
Nov-24-09 02:01 PM |
#97 |
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Ya Gotta Live Somewhere & Here In Ohio Its Cheaper To Buy Than Rent |
we can do it |
Nov-23-09 07:24 PM |
#39 |
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I'm confused? |
orwell |
Nov-23-09 07:41 PM |
#46 |
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Not necessarily bad, but not necessarily good. |
girl gone mad |
Nov-23-09 10:31 PM |
#83 |
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A picture worth many times more than the thousands of words |
varelse |
Nov-23-09 07:50 PM |
#49 |
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More from the DU Tailchasers |
Dreamer Tatum |
Nov-23-09 08:01 PM |
#56 |
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LOL! |
jpak |
Nov-23-09 08:18 PM |
#63 |
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ditto |
HughMoran |
Nov-23-09 08:36 PM |
#71 |
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Hahahahaha! |
tabasco |
Nov-23-09 09:47 PM |
#77 |
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You forgot one line though |
nadinbrzezinski |
Nov-23-09 10:38 PM |
#85 |
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I just hope these homes are being bought by people not businesses |
athenasatanjesus |
Nov-23-09 09:42 PM |
#76 |
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sales were down so much it just seems like a return to normality. |
mmonk |
Nov-23-09 10:10 PM |
#80 |
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Stinky, I respect your opinions and love your posts, but I have what I hope is good news. |
FatDave |
Nov-23-09 10:42 PM |
#86 |
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My post ought to demonstrate a desire for *actual* good news when only puffery is being given. |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-24-09 08:05 AM |
#92 |
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Still sitting on my investment properties. |
tjwash |
Nov-24-09 12:11 PM |
#94 |
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I won't flame you. But you're right. Some might. |
Stinky The Clown |
Nov-24-09 12:22 PM |
#95 |
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My mom, a senior citizen, just got turned down |
LWolf |
Nov-24-09 12:28 PM |
#96 |
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