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Reply #24: Yep ... I'm blowing it tonight [View All]

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Dogmudgeon (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Tue Nov-03-09 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Yep ... I'm blowing it tonightUpdated at 3:19 AM
I underestimated how many younger voters would stay home -- and Christie won. Marriage equality isn't faring too well in Maine. I may be one for four tonight.

Nate Silver's job is safe.

Meanwhile, it looks like Owens is doing unexpectedly well. 75% of the vote is in, and it's 49-46. But Hoffman also inoculated himself in the event of a loss by claiming Acorn was infiltrating. That seems to be GOP SOP these days, to accuse the Democrats of bringing in Hispanics or Blacks or Communists to "steal" the vote -- in every close election.

If Hoffman loses, the only upset the Republicans will have to crow about is Chris Christie, a socially liberal Republican who will piss off the wet tea bag crowd. They will again be forced into months of Colemanizing in support of a man who gave the Party a swift kick in the nuts. (And there are so many GOP nuts!)

I'm just crestfallen that so many younger voters stayed home. If it takes a charismatic candidate running a feel-good campaign to bring them out, we'll be up to our ass in elephants again in no time.

--d!
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  Nate at 538 calls the three biggies going red. Hmmm... NRaleighLiberal  Nov-03-09 06:59 PM   #0 
   Same with A.B. Stoddard and Joey Scar. oyyyyyyyyyyy  polichick   Nov-03-09 07:00 PM   #1 
   Bummer :^(  GreenPartyVoter   Nov-03-09 07:01 PM   #2 
   He's probably right.  Bleacher Creature   Nov-03-09 07:03 PM   #3 
   but but but.. it's SUPER TUESDAY  SoCalDem   Nov-03-09 07:05 PM   # 
   good points, one and all. thanks.  NRaleighLiberal   Nov-03-09 07:05 PM   #5 
   Kos just said it better than me.  Bleacher Creature   Nov-03-09 07:11 PM   #8 
   Well at least Michele Bachmann will get a new member for her Batshit Crazy Caucus  emulatorloo   Nov-03-09 07:13 PM   #9 
   Delete  itsrobert   Nov-03-09 07:05 PM   #4 
   Very unlikely we'll eke any of these out.  cali   Nov-03-09 07:06 PM   #6 
   Really, Maine is the only one I am watching.  tekisui   Nov-03-09 07:17 PM   #11 
      Washington state has a referendum on gay rights, too.  Arugula Latte   Nov-03-09 07:22 PM   #14 
         Thanks, I didn't know that.  tekisui   Nov-03-09 07:36 PM   #18 
   NY23 can't go republican  itsrobert   Nov-03-09 07:06 PM   #7 
   Yes, let's call it this way: republicans lost the NY-23  northzax   Nov-03-09 07:18 PM   #12 
      Would this be the US Civil War of which you speak?  99 Percent Sure   Nov-03-09 08:54 PM   #20 
         er right  northzax   Nov-04-09 09:16 AM   #25 
   Dogmudgeon calls 2R, 2D  Dogmudgeon   Nov-03-09 07:15 PM   #10 
   I think you are right on all of these  mvdDU Moderator   Nov-03-09 07:19 PM   #13 
   That's 1 C, 1 R and 2 D  itsrobert   Nov-03-09 07:38 PM   #19 
   True ... but not for long  Dogmudgeon   Nov-03-09 10:07 PM   #21 
      Not so fast! NYT has Owens leading Hoffman 51%- 44% right now, with 23% reporting  Mister Ed   Nov-03-09 10:15 PM   #23 
         Yep ... I'm blowing it tonight  Dogmudgeon   Nov-03-09 11:29 PM   #24 
   Hard to discern any national trend from mid-Atlantic state. Esp. with the corruption in NJ  Roland99   Nov-03-09 10:10 PM   #22 
   That may be the best result - perhaps the party will take a break of trying to tear  grantcart   Nov-03-09 07:30 PM   #15 
   Nate just Tweeted this  mvdDU Moderator   Nov-03-09 07:30 PM   #16 
   it's not a referendum on Obama or health care.  endless october   Nov-03-09 07:31 PM   #17 
 

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