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Reply #74: The new French report shows why "warning fatigue" is highly unlikely [View All]

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HamdenRice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-18-07 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. The new French report shows why "warning fatigue" is highly unlikely
Edited on Wed Apr-18-07 06:10 PM by HamdenRice
The main point of the le Monde article is not that it describes a specific warning, as the American media has portrayed it. It is that the article provides an entirely new context in which to understand how those warnings flowed from a successful intelligence penetration of AQ.

Up until now, "warning fatigue" was a possible explanation because AQ was a "black box" out of which seemed to flow incomplete or contradictory intelligence. Le Monde's dossier shows that AQ was not a black box, but was virtually transparent.

The old paradigm was that "warning fatigue" might set in because our warnings were: AQ is going to strike in Germany; AQ is going to strike in Chicago; AQ is going to strike airplanes; etc.

The new paradigm is that French, Uzbek and Northern Alliance intelligence operatives have penetrated the command structure of AQ. They are following the plot as it unravels.

The report you cite is from September 2002, before even the 9/11 Commission hearings, and the revelation of the August presidential PDB. The reporter knew very little about what the Bush administration knew and in what form its intelligence was received. That very Independent news article, however, is based on intelligence from the Uzbek jihadist movement that was leaked to a not very enthusiastic Taliban foreign minister who tried to convey it to the US embassy. In 2002, that might have seemed to a reporter like a loose tidbit of information. The Le Monde report, however, shows that that same Uzbek jihadist source was thoroughly penetrated by Uzbek and French intelligence -- that the French likely knew from the fake Uzbek jihadis in bin Laden's command structure what bin Laden was planning, even before the Taliban's foreign minister knew! That information would have been provided to the US CIA station chief in Paris -- and presumably directly to Tenet in Washington -- in narrative form in the context of a years' worth of steady narrative reports about what was coming out of bin Laden's camps through Uzbek channels.

The "warning fatigue" comment comes from an unnamed state department official when the Bush administration was still in full blown stonewall mode. But by the time of the 9/11 Commission hearings, both Tenet and Clark have admitted that they did not have "warning fatigue" but that "their hair was on fire" because of intelligence reports that were converging, not diverging, in their indications.

The Le Monde report means it is crucial for us to know how specific the reports were that were coming out of the Uzbek-French connection, and whether there were other intelligence agencies that penetrated AQ as thoroughly, and how specific those reports were.

The Le Monde report convincingly indicates that it is likely that those reports were very, very concrete and specific.

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