Whats up with the 3 remaining senate races

[Juche]

My understanding is Begich is still ahead by 1022 and the rest are in large cities and Begich favored territories. This is similiar to what happened in Oregon where they were still counting but the remaining votes were in dem favored territory. So if we get Begich that is 58.

Franken is still behind about 220 votes, but on 538 they talk about how 0.25-0.9% of ballots will probably be reclassified (errors made on the ballot that the computers didn't count as votes but a hand count will catch as an intentional vote for Franken or Coleman) during the recount, so about 7500-25000 senate votes added. He also claims that voters more likely to prefer Franken (younger, first time, lower income) may be more likely to make mistakes on the ballots that will be caught in the recount, so reclassifications may slightly benefit Franken (assume 51/49 rather than a 50/50 split as Franken's voters may be more likely to make mistakes that get caught in the hand recount).

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/frankens-odds-of...

They claim if 0.75% of ballots are reclassifed and classified to prefer Franken to Coleman 51/49 then Franken has a 86% of winning.

Does the dem have a chance in Georgia? I'm assuming the votes that went to the libertarian candidate will go to Chambliss this time. Does martin have a chance there?

Also I think O'reilly threatened to move to Ireland if Franken won (this was before the race got as close as it is now). Any word on that?