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Reply #17: Question 1, No. Question 2, Yes. [View All]

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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Tue Nov-11-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
17. Question 1, No. Question 2, Yes.
Edited on Tue Nov-11-08 05:23 PM by Up2Late
Both situation are bad, best is a very small inflation rate of .5 to 1.5% annually, because usually, in normal (good) times in the U.S. workers are given wage increases of 3-4% annually. In that situation, with an average inflation rate of 1.5% for all annual expenses, the worker is getting a little more wealthy each year.

But to answer question one, Yes and No. Falling prices do not help the economy by spurring consumer spending. Yes, they help the consumer in the very short term for very small items and non-durable goods (non-durable goods are goods that are used up when used once, or that have a lifespan of less than 3 years), but for durable goods (a good which does not quickly wear out, or more specifically, it yields services or utility over time rather than being completely used up when used once)deflation is very bad.

(from Wikipedia) <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durable_good >
Examples of consumer durable goods include cars, appliances, business equipment, electronic equipment, home furnishings and fixtures, housewares and accessories, photographic equipment, recreational goods, sporting goods, toys and games....

...Examples of non-durable goods include cosmetics, food, cleaning products, fuel, office supplies, packaging and containers, paper and paper products, personal products, rubber, plastics, textiles, clothing and footwear....

So since most non-durable goods are made my machines, which are more and more run by computer which make the need for human workers less and less every year and the fact that most of the durable goods listed above are now imported from lower wage countries, deflation quickly leads to unemployment which causes consumer spending to fall, and since unemployed people spend less on everything, but especially durable goods, it leads to more price cuts and more deflation...

To put it simply (and crudely), in a time of deflation, when the American economy is something like 70% consumer driven (or at least it was before the house of cards began to collapse), WE, the lower 97%, are F*cked.

And to answer question 2 directly, (2) Do wages contract in an deflationary environment? Yes, it's called unemployment or part-time employment.
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  Two Questions about Deflation Mike 03  Nov-11-08 04:19 PM   #0 
   " I don't know nuthin' 'bout birthin' no babies!! "...  AzDar   Nov-11-08 04:21 PM   #1 
   not a financial expert but...  Jim4Wes   Nov-11-08 04:24 PM   #2 
   Deflation hurts producers. Inflation hurts consumers.  Selatius   Nov-11-08 04:24 PM   #3 
   Hmmm. That wouldn't be very helpful, cutting wages. I'm beginning to see the conundrum.  Mike 03   Nov-11-08 04:26 PM   #5 
   Prices fall because spending has stopped  Warpy   Nov-11-08 04:24 PM   #4 
   That's what I meant about "self-correcting." As consumers begin to consume again, wouldn't  Mike 03   Nov-11-08 04:28 PM   #6 
      What happens is the value of everything is dropping  Jim4Wes   Nov-11-08 04:32 PM   #8 
      Okay, I'm starting to understand this now.  Mike 03   Nov-11-08 04:35 PM   #9 
      No. Deflation turns into a vicious circle  Warpy   Nov-11-08 04:49 PM   #12 
   Good question! I asked myself your n°1 as well. And I don't know either  BelgianMadCow   Nov-11-08 04:28 PM   #7 
   well here's wikipedia on it - the answer to n°1  BelgianMadCow   Nov-11-08 04:37 PM   #10 
   from an article I read today  bobbydem   Nov-11-08 04:46 PM   #11 
   A Fall in an Individual Commodity Like Oil Can be Beneficial  ribofunk   Nov-11-08 04:49 PM   #13 
   Consider how it affects "TIMING" of purchases  HamdenRice   Nov-11-08 05:03 PM   #14 
   my opinion re: this  CountAllVotes   Nov-11-08 05:09 PM   #15 
   prices of food here ARE dropping  bobbydem   Nov-11-08 05:12 PM   #16 
   California  CountAllVotes   Nov-11-08 05:21 PM   #18 
      Deflation is not a big problem with "non-durable goods," which are what you listed here...  Up2Late   Nov-11-08 05:39 PM   #19 
   Wasn't that once called stagflation?  evlbstrd   Nov-11-08 05:40 PM   #20 
      I almost mentioned stagflation in my post  CountAllVotes   Nov-11-08 05:46 PM   #21 
   Question 1, No. Question 2, Yes.  Up2Late   Nov-11-08 05:18 PM   #17 
 

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