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1988-2000 Exit Poll Discrepancies were due to Uncounted Votes; but 2004 Differed in Kind and Scope [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 12:48 PM
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1988-2000 Exit Poll Discrepancies were due to Uncounted Votes; but 2004 Differed in Kind and Scope
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Uncounted and Switched Votes

TruthIsAll      source: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide, Ch. 19
1988-2004: Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies

Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 19882004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.

Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:
(2-party exit poll share in parenthesis)
 


Year
 

Democrat
 
RECORDED
VOTE-COUNT
UNCOUNTED
ADJUSTED
 
UNADJUSTED
EXIT POLL

AVERAGE
 
 
 
46.9 %
48.9 %
 
48.8 %
 
(52.7)
 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
 
Kerry
Gore
Clinton
Clinton
Dukakis
 
48.3
48.4
49.2
43.0
45.6
49.0
49.7
51.4
45.7
48.7
 
51.8
49.4
50.2
45.7
46.8
 
(52.3)
(51.4)
(55.8)
(56.8)
(47.3)

Look at this graph:

In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic EXIT POLL share exceeded the RECORDED vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share.

The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections.
Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.

The analysis shown below indicates that given Census 2000/2004 estimates of total votes cast and 12:22am National Exit Poll Voted 2000 shares, Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Even using Final NEP vote shares, Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters! The Final was 'forced' to match the recorded vote using mathematically impossible weights and by sharply increasing Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP.

There are some exit poll critics who claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique, and, therefore, to conclude that the election was stolen based on exit poll results is "crap" and "bad science". After all, they say, there were no allegations of fraud in 1992. They fail to mention or are unaware of the fact that in 1992 Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%), but that 9.4m votes were uncounted, of which 7080% were Democratic ( 75% Dem / 25% Rep are used in the model). When uncounted votes are included, the 52.041.5m adjusted vote (45.736.4%), exactly matched Clintons unadjusted exit poll.

From 1988-2000, after the uncounted adjustment, there was a 0.85% average Democratic exit poll discrepancy and 2.9 WPE. In 2004, after the 3.4m uncounted vote adjustment, the exit poll discrepancy was 2.8% and Bush's margin was reduced from 3.0m (62.059.0) to 1.3m (62.961.6).  But ...

Uncounted votes were only one component of Election Fraud 2004.  The Election Calculator Model determined that approximately 5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

Recorded and Uncounted Votes


Year
 
States Reported
VOTES COUNTED
VOTES COUNTED
Dem
Rep
Other
 
COUNTED-VOTE  Shares
Dem
Rep
Other
 
 
VOTES
UNCOUNTED
~75%
Dem
~25%
Rep/Oth

AVERAGE
 
104.0
48.8
47.9
7.2
 
46.9%
46.0%
7.1%
 
3.76
 
7.5
5.7
1.9

 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
 
122.3
105.4
96.3
104.4
91.6
59.0
51.0
47.4
44.9
41.8
62.0
50.5
39.1
39.0
48.9
1.2
4.0
9.7
20.4
0.9
 
48.3%
48.4%
49.2%
43.0%
45.6%
50.7%
47.9%
40.7%
37.4%
53.4%
1.0%
3.8%
10.1%
19.6%
1.0%
 
7.09
2.01
1.93
5.40
2.38
 
3.4
5.4
8.7
9.4
10.6
2.6
4.0
6.5
7.1
7.9
0.9
1.3
2.2
2.4
2.6
 

Total Votes Cast vs. Exit Poll

Year
Adjusted
 
Census Reported
VOTES  CAST
COUNTED+UNCOUNTED
Dem
Rep
Other
 
UNCOUNTED-Adjusted Sh
Dem
Rep
Other
 
EXIT POLL
Dem
 
post-Adj
Diff
 
EP2pty
Dem
 
UNCTD
/ CAST

AVERAGE
 
111.5
54.5
49.8
7.2
 
48.9%
44.6%
6.5%
 
48.8%
 
0.1%
 
52.7%
 
7.0%

 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
 
125.7
110.8
105.0
113.9
102.2
61.6
55.0
54.0
52.0
49.8
62.9
51.8
41.4
41.5
51.5
1.2
4.0
9.7
20.4
0.9
 
49.0%
49.7%
51.4%
45.7%
48.7%
50.0%
46.8%
39.4%
36.4%
50.4%
1.0%
3.6%
9.2%
17.9%
0.9%
 
51.8%
49.4%
50.2%
45.7%
46.8%
 
-2.8%
0.3%
1.2%
0.0%
1.9%
 
52.3%
51.4%
55.8%
56.8%
47.3%
 
2.74%
4.86%
8.31%
8.48%
10.37%
 

The Census Bureau website states the following:

The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the official turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here.

The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. According to investigative reporter Greg Palast, government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots.

Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure. In 13 states the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by 730,000 votes. The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k). Apparently more votes were padded than suppressed in the 13 states. But the net discrepancy does not contain the necessary information to calculate the actual number of uncounted and padded votes.

There are many combinations which would provide the net number. For example, of the 3.4m vote difference, 4.0m could have been suppressed (uncounted) and 0.6m padded (stuffed). Or 5.0m suppressed and 1.6m padded. In Florida, the least onerous case would be if the total 238k discrepancy was due to vote padding. But it is far more likely that vote padding occurred in Republican districts while vote suppression took place in heavily Democratic minority districts. The net 238k difference could have been due to 338k padded and 100k suppressed votes.

The Election Calculator


2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 
 
 
2004 Calculated True Vote
 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 
 
 
12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00


Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million
 
Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42
 
Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38
 
Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80
 

Deaths

2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41
 

Alive

52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39
 
Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'

DNV
95%
95%
95%


100.13
 
Total Votes
Cast in '04
25.62
49.70
46.60
  3.82

125.74
True Vote
 
'Voted 2000'
Weight
20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74
 

Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9
 

Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1
 

Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73 
 


Sensitivity  Analysis
Kerry National Vote

Kerry Share of
Gore Voters


Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)
53.2%
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
61.0%
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%
54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%
55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%
55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%

 

Kerry Margin (millions)
9.87
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
61.0%
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8
12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9
13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9
14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9
15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9
 


Refer to source for three other Sensitivity Analyses on Kerry's National Vote.

Required Bush share of returning Gore voters: 2000-2004 uncounted vote scenarios

Most likely scenario:
       2000/2004 U.S. Vote Census estimates & the 12:22am NEP Voted 2000 shares (13047 random selection, 1% MoE):

       Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Least likely scenario:
       U.S. Vote Census estimates and the 'forced' Final NEP Voted 2000 shares (13660 respondents):

       Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Assumptions
        1.22% annual voter mortality
        95% of 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004
        Final NEP vote shares:
          Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004:   Bush required 18.1% of returning Gore Voters
          Uncounted votes not included:   Bush required 16.3% of returning Gore Voters

          Refer to source for "Final NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations.

        12:22am NEP vote shares:
          Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004:   Bush required 21.5% of returning Gore Voters
          Uncounted votes not included:   Bush required 20.0% of returning Gore Voters

          Refer to source for "12:22am NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations.


Calculation of Switched Votes
Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Given:
125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)
122.29m votes recorded
3.45m votes uncounted

Assume:
2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry
0.87% annual mortality
95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

Calculate:
The approximate number of Kerry votes which were switched to Bush.
True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)

S = 4.49  =  TRU  =  66.10 − 59.03 − 2.58
Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Switched vote rate:
SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8%


True Vote Reconciliation
 
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total
Recorded
59.027
62.040
  1.228

122.30
Share
75%
24%
1%

100%
 
Uncounted
2.584
0.827
0.034

3.445
 
(Adjusted)
61.611
62.867
  1.262

125.74
 
Switched
+4.488
−4.488
   0.000

   0.000
Share
+6.79%
−7.69%
  0.00%

  0.00%
 
True Vote
66.097
58.375
  1.262

125.74
 
Share
52.57%
46.43%
  1.01%

100.0%
 
 
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total
 


VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS
(Votes in thousands)

  • NET UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    75%:
    24%:
    1%:

    100%:
    2,582
    826
    34

    3,443




    (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)
     

  • SWITCHED VOTES
    4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were switched to Bush

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION

True Vote
Uncounted
Net
Switched   
Recorded
66,097
-2,582
63,515
-4,488
59,027
100.0%
  3.91%
96.09%
  6.79%
89.30%

 

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE

 
True Vote (000s)
Electoral Vote (EV)



Recorded Vote-Count
Change
True Vote
  shares
Kerry
59,027
  7,070
66,097
52.57%
Bush
62,040
-3,662
58,378
46.43%
Kerry
252
  97
336
Bush
286
  -97
202

 


BASE CASE SUMMARY

Switched votes: 6.8%
Uncounted Votes: 3,442 (000s)
Uncounted Alloocation: 75%-K 24%-B 1%-O

Uncounted %

75%
24%
1%
2.74%
 

Kerry
Bush
Other
Total
Recorded

59027
62040
1228
122295


48.27%
50.73%
1.00%
100.0%
 
Uncounted

2582
826
34
3442
 
Adjusted

61609
62866
1262
125737


49.0%
50.0%
1.0%
100.0%


2.11%
0.68%
0.03%
2.81%
 
Switched

+4488
−4488
0
0
 
True Vote

66097
58375
1262
125737
Share

52.57%
46.43%
1.01%
100.0%


Kerry
Bush
Other
Total
 


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I

Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)
(Kerry 75% share of uncounted votes)

Recorded Share Recorded Vote Kerry Electoral Vote
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush States which
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 59027 62040 -3013 252 286 flipped to Bush
SVR
6.8% 52.57% 46.43% 66097 58383 7714 336 202 CO FL IA MO NV NM OH
6.5% 52.42% 46.58% 65906 58570 7336 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH
6.0% 52.15% 46.84% 65575 58901 6675 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH
5.0% 51.63% 47.37% 64914 59562 5353 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH

4.0% 51.10% 47.90% 64253 60223 4031 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH
3.0% 50.58% 48.42% 63592 60883 2709 289 249 IA NV NM
2.0% 50.05% 48.95% 62931 61544 1387 289 249 IA NV NM
1.0% 49.52% 49.47% 62270 62205 65 264 274 IA NM
0.0% 49.00% 50.00% 61609 62866 -1257 264 274 IA NM

Refer to source for:

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin


State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes

(in thousands)

Recorded Vote Uncounted Switched TRUE Vote
Total Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin EVote
122295 59027 62040 48.27% 50.73% 2582 826 4488 66097 58378 52.57% 46.43% Change Flip

AL 1877 694 1176 37.0% 62.7% 42 14 47 784 1142 40.5% 59.1% 6.4%
AK 307 111 191 36.2% 62.2% 7 2 8 125 186 39.7% 58.7% 6.3%
AZ 1998 894 1104 44.7% 55.3% 31 10 61 986 1053 48.3% 51.6% 7.0%
AR 1049 470 573 44.8% 54.6% 19 6 32 521 547 48.5% 50.9% 7.2%
CA 12255 6745 5510 55.0% 45.0% 246 79 458 7449 5131 59.2% 40.8% 8.6%

CO 2116 1002 1101 47.4% 52.0% 31 10 68 1101 1043 51.0% 48.3% 7.3% 9
CT 1564 857 694 54.8% 44.4% 26 8 58 941 644 58.9% 40.3% 8.4%
DC 226 203 21 89.8% 9.3% 10 3 14 227 10 94.8% 4.3% 4.4%
DE 373 200 172 53.6% 46.1% 8 2 14 221 161 57.7% 42.0% 8.5%
FL 7582 3584 3965 47.3% 52.3% 140 45 243 3967 3766 51.1% 48.5% 7.5% 27

GA 3280 1366 1914 41.6% 58.4% 81 26 93 1540 1847 45.4% 54.5% 7.1%
HI 426 232 194 54.5% 45.5% 18 6 16 265 184 59.0% 40.9% 9.7%
ID 590 181 409 30.7% 69.3% 7 2 12 201 399 33.5% 66.5% 4.9%
IL 5238 2892 2346 55.2% 44.8% 99 32 196 3187 2181 59.4% 40.6% 8.6%
IN 2448 969 1479 39.6% 60.4% 37 12 66 1072 1425 42.9% 57.1% 6.3%

IA 1500 742 752 49.5% 50.1% 19 6 50 811 708 53.2% 46.4% 7.4% 7
KS 1180 435 736 36.9% 62.4% 18 6 30 482 712 40.1% 59.2% 5.9%
KY 1791 713 1069 39.8% 59.7% 26 8 48 788 1029 43.1% 56.4% 6.3%
LA 1929 820 1102 42.5% 57.1% 49 16 56 925 1062 46.4% 53.2% 7.3%
ME 735 397 330 54.0% 44.9% 9 3 27 433 306 57.9% 41.0% 8.0%

MD 2370 1334 1024 56.3% 43.2% 60 19 91 1484 952 60.6% 38.9% 9.1%
MA 2875 1804 1071 62.7% 37.3% 46 15 122 1972 963 67.2% 32.8% 9.4%
MI 4816 2479 2313 51.5% 48.0% 89 28 168 2736 2173 55.4% 44.0% 8.0%
MN 2811 1445 1347 51.4% 47.9% 41 13 98 1584 1262 55.3% 44.0% 7.8%
MS 1146 458 685 40.0% 59.8% 31 10 31 520 664 43.8% 55.9% 7.0%

MO 2715 1259 1456 46.4% 53.6% 45 15 85 1390 1385 50.1% 49.9% 7.3% 11
MT 446 174 266 39.0% 59.6% 6 2 12 192 256 42.3% 56.4% 6.1%
NE 773 254 513 32.9% 66.4% 11 3 17 282 499 35.8% 63.4% 5.3%
NV 821 397 419 48.4% 51.0% 14 5 27 438 397 52.2% 47.2% 7.6% 5
NH 675 340 331 50.4% 49.0% 8 3 23 371 311 54.1% 45.3% 7.5%

NJ 3600 1911 1670 53.1% 46.4% 72 23 130 2113 1563 57.2% 42.3% 8.4%
NM 751 370 377 49.3% 50.2% 13 4 25 408 356 53.1% 46.4% 7.7% 5
NY 7377 4314 2963 58.5% 40.2% 158 50 293 4764 2720 62.8% 35.9% 9.1%
NC 3487 1526 1961 43.8% 56.2% 74 24 104 1704 1881 47.5% 52.5% 7.2%
ND 312 111 197 35.6% 63.1% 4 1 8 123 191 38.7% 60.1% 5.7%

OH 5601 2741 2860 48.9% 51.1% 94 30 186 3021 2704 52.8% 47.2% 7.6% 20
OK 1464 504 960 34.4% 65.6% 28 9 34 566 935 37.7% 62.3% 5.8%
OR 1810 943 867 52.1% 47.9% 26 8 64 1033 811 56.0% 44.0% 7.9%
PA 5732 2938 2794 51.3% 48.7% 93 30 199 3231 2624 55.2% 44.8% 7.9%
RI 434 260 169 59.9% 38.9% 7 2 18 284 153 64.2% 34.7% 9.0%

SC 1606 662 938 41.2% 58.4% 38 12 45 745 905 45.0% 54.6% 7.0%
SD 386 149 233 38.6% 60.4% 6 2 10 165 225 41.9% 57.1% 6.1%
TN 2429 1036 1384 42.7% 57.0% 45 14 70 1151 1328 46.3% 53.4% 6.9%
TX 7360 2833 4527 38.5% 61.5% 129 41 192 3155 4376 41.9% 58.1% 6.3%
UT 916 241 664 26.3% 72.5% 12 4 16 269 651 28.9% 69.9% 4.4%

VT 309 184 121 59.5% 39.2% 4 1 12 200 110 63.8% 34.9% 8.7%
VA 3172 1455 1717 45.9% 54.1% 68 22 99 1622 1640 49.7% 50.3% 7.5%
WA 2838 1510 1305 53.2% 46.0% 47 15 103 1660 1218 57.2% 42.0% 8.2%
WV 755 327 424 43.3% 56.2% 9 3 22 359 405 46.7% 52.7% 6.6%
WI 2984 1490 1478 49.9% 49.5% 44 14 101 1635 1391 53.7% 45.7% 7.6%
WY 242 71 168 29.3% 69.4% 3 1 5 79 164 32.0% 66.7% 4.8%

Padded Votes

State Kerry Bush Other Total Padded Cast Padded%Cast
Alaska 111 191 11 313 20 293 6.70%
Colorado 1,002 1,101 27 2,130 33 2,097 1.60%
Connecticut 857 694 27 1,579 55 1,524 3.60%
Florida 3,584 3,965 62 7,610 238 7,372 3.20%
Idaho 181 409 8 598 13 585 2.30%
Maine 397 330 14 741 5 736 0.70%
Michigan 2,479 2,314 46 4,839 21 4,818 0.40%
NewHampshire 341 331 6 678 1 677 0.10%
Ohio 2,741 2,860 27 5,628 143 5,485 2.60%
SouthDakota 149 233 6 388 10 378 2.70%
Tennessee 1,036 1,384 16 2,437 118 2,319 5.10%
Virginia 1,455 1,717 27 3,198 64 3,134 2.10%
Washington 1,510 1,305 44 2,859 8 2,851 0.30%

Total 15,843 16,833 322 32,999 730 32,269 2.20%

Uncounted Votes

State Kerry Bush Other Total Unctd Cast Unctd%Cast
Alabama 694 1,176 13 1,883 177 2,060 8.60%
Arizona 894 1,104 15 2,013 226 2,239 10.10%
Arkansas 470 573 12 1,055 85 1,140 7.50%
California 6,745 5,510 165 12,420 387 12,807 3.00%
Delaware 200 172 3 375 10 385 2.60%
D. C. 203 21 3 228 42 270 15.70%
Georgia 1,366 1,914 21 3,302 30 3,332 0.90%
Hawaii 232 194 3 429 4 433 0.90%
Illinois 2,892 2,346 37 5,274 398 5,672 7.00%
Indiana 969 1,479 20 2,468 130 2,598 5.00%
Iowa 742 752 13 1,507 15 1,522 1.00%
Kansas 435 736 16 1,188 0 1,188 0.02%
Kentucky 713 1,069 14 1,796 134 1,930 6.90%
Louisiana 820 1,102 21 1,943 124 2,067 6.00%
Maryland 1,334 1,025 27 2,387 26 2,413 1.10%
Massachusetts 1,804 1,071 37 2,912 173 3,085 5.60%
Minnesota 1,445 1,347 37 2,828 59 2,887 2.00%
Mississippi 458 685 9 1,152 111 1,263 8.80%
Missouri 1,259 1,456 16 2,731 84 2,815 3.00%
Montana 174 266 11 450 32 482 6.60%
Nebraska 254 513 11 778 15 793 1.90%
Nevada 397 419 14 830 41 871 4.80%
New Jersey 1,911 1,670 30 3,612 81 3,693 2.20%
New Mexico 371 377 8 756 81 837 9.60%
New York 4,314 2,963 114 7,391 307 7,698 4.00%
N Carolina 1,526 1,961 14 3,501 138 3,639 3.80%
North Dakota 111 197 5 313 17 330 5.20%
Oklahoma 504 960 0 1,464 77 1,541 5.00%
Oregon 943 867 27 1,837 87 1,924 4.50%
Pennsylvania 2,938 2,794 38 5,770 75 5,845 1.30%
Rhode Island 260 169 8 437 30 467 6.40%
S Carolina 662 938 18 1,618 281 1,899 14.80%
Texas 2,833 4,527 51 7,411 539 7,950 6.80%
Utah 241 664 23 928 94 1,022 9.20%
Vermont 184 121 7 312 4 316 1.20%
West Virginia 327 424 6 756 42 798 5.30%
Wisconsin 1,490 1,478 29 2,997 13 3,010 0.40%
Wyoming 71 168 5 243 4 247 1.40%

Total 43,185 45,207 903 89,295 4,173 93,468 4.70%










 
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