Political Realignment

[RoyGBiv]

There are a few theories about political realignment. Most of them agree that a distinct realignment took place in 1860, another in 1896, and another in 1936 (not 1933 as some idealists have proposed). Arthur Schlesinger has one theory that doesn't entirely fit with this. A number of historians, political scientists, economists, and sociologists have another.

Where it gets cloudy is 1980. Does the theory that explains all those other years apply then or not?

There's no concrete answer.

Regardless, I have an observation that explains, to some extent, the weirdness of DU in the last few weeks.

We're all Democrats, right? Yes. Most of us are liberals, yes? Damn straight. Some of us are more liberal that others.

But what does that mean?

Well, it doesn't mean anything concrete. One member of DU who is far and away more left-wing than most, by traditional measures, has come out in favor of this so-called bailout bill. Other DUers, who are self-described moderates, have come out declaring their unqualified opposition. Other left-wingers have condemned it. Other moderates have applauded it.

We've got trolls among us as well, and they don't seem to know what to believe. Bush is for it? BARNY FRANKY is for it? Harry Reid is for it? You've got the gamut there. What the fuck? Idiot to conservative to liberal to moderate to nutjob. A lot of people are for it. A lot of people are against it.

What's a person to believe?

We had a political realignment in 1936. Since this was FDR's second term, a lot of pop historians (the people that write HS textbooks) don't acknowledge the difference between the political coalition that elected him in 1932 and that which put him into his second term, third, and fourth terms. They were different people, different interests. But those who pushed him to the White House for his second term started getting together during the first term, but they hadn't solidified yet. See, during the first term, FDR didn't do much. He deferred. He tried to work off the policies of his predecessor (that would be Hoover) and make those policies work. But, they didn't, and to make something work, FDR needed a new coalition. And he got one, finally, years after he first ran for office.

I don't know. I can't know. No one can know until after the fact. But, I believe, based on history and the patterns evidence, that we are headed toward a new political coalition. That's why, in part, some of us who think we are conservative or moderate sound like communists and why others who are so leftist they put Marx to shame come off sounding like poster boys for the Right.

The rules have changed. You don't know it yet, not really, but our world has been upended. The same kind of political and economic forces that ruled in the 1930s are coming into place today, and we would do well to recognize that and learn from it.

If we don't, bread lines will be the best-case scenario.