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The Traveler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-16-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
19. No clubbing required!
Edited on Sat Aug-16-08 10:14 PM by The Traveler
The injection of the historical references into this discussion is quite beneficial. The point of my thrust, not well made, is that much could have been done diplomatically to relieve pressures induced by the movement of former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO.

Again, I ask you to consider these facts from the viewpoint of a military planner in the Russian Federation.

1) In the late 1980s, America forms relations with Iraq and provides advice and lethal material.

2) In the early 1990s, America unwinds its "Air/Land Battle" doctrine and hardware upon that same nation. (BTW I am quite proud of the small role I played in the development of said doctrine and hardware.)

3) In 2003, America concots a rationale for invading that same country. Subsequently that same rationale is demonstrated to be hollow and false, and it is shown semi-convincingly that the world and American people were deliberately deceived. It does appear that it was largely about oil and strategic positioning.

4) From this, we can conclude America has no problem zapping a former partner if circumstances are deemed advantageous for doing so.

5) Simultaneously, military and political alliances are formed on my border. High tech weaponry including missile defense and precision munitions (shown to be effective in item 2 above) are being moved in.

Given the volatility of American intentions, a response to oppose these trends would appear to be necessary. Or, at least, if I were a military planner for Russia, that would be my feeling. The action in Georgia provides a means to check tactical readiness, wring out some kinks, probe the adversary (the US, really) and observe reactions and resolve.

Now, I am not particularly fond of Putin's regime. Frankly, I think they have been harboring some dark ambitions for quite a while now. My point is, that a well intentioned and relatively unagressive government might be given pause by the pattern outlined above. A aggressive and ambitious government might seek to exploit that pattern in a bid for a more dominant position in world affairs.

From a military planner's viewpoint, now is a good time for such action. American diplomatic leverage is at an all time low, and recent comments from Bush and McCain about international law etc. may play well here but produce laughter abroad and further weakens that leverage. The American military is obviously quite busy right now, and this does add a little bit of load to the back, a little salt to the wound. And all of this, of course, does cause our military planners to scratch options of the list as reserves of force capacity must be budgeted against a potential emerging Russian threat.

In chess, this would be called a forcing move. Our current leadership plays checkers. I am not hopeful that the administration response will be well strategically well crafted. So far, it seems my pessimism is well founded.

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  -A wake up call: the Republicans *did not want* this Russian invasion of Georgia. Donald Ian Rankin  Aug-16-08 05:27 PM   #0 
  - But it is Bush's fault  The Traveler   Aug-16-08 05:32 PM   #1 
  - You're reaching.  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-16-08 05:52 PM   #3 
  - hardly. he's quite right. who upset the balance of power?  Hannah Bell   Aug-16-08 08:00 PM   #16 
  - Not really  The Traveler   Aug-16-08 10:16 PM   #20 
  - Just why did Georgia bomb and raize a civilian city with no military targets?  Bandit   Aug-17-08 10:13 AM   #32 
  - There are two possible answers to that; I don't know which it is yet.  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-17-08 10:57 AM   #34 
  - ok, then explain what Karl Rove was doing in Georgia earlier this summer.  yardwork   Aug-18-08 04:04 PM   #44 
  - The outcry over the state of the Russian military began before Bush II.  igil   Aug-16-08 06:03 PM   #4 
     - britain gave the us bad treatment in the 18th-19th centuries. nothing  Hannah Bell   Aug-16-08 08:03 PM   #17 
     - No clubbing required!  The Traveler   Aug-16-08 10:11 PM   #19 
     - so Israel should invade Poland for its anti-semitism?  RainDog   Aug-18-08 09:58 AM   #36 
  - There are The Republicans...  AntiFascist   Aug-16-08 05:32 PM   #2 
  - BWHAHAHAHAHAHA!  Karenina   Aug-16-08 06:07 PM   #5 
  - Yeah...Cold Wars are TERRIBLE for Military Industrial Complexes....  Junkdrawer   Aug-16-08 06:09 PM   #6 
  - The first rule of DU:  Occam Bandage   Aug-16-08 06:12 PM   #7 
  - I think it is still not clear about who attacked who  MiniMe   Aug-16-08 06:55 PM   #8 
  - Of course they want to return to the cold war.  MrSlayer   Aug-16-08 07:02 PM   #9 
  - I think you're making the mistake of thinking the Republicans are cartoon villains.  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-16-08 07:32 PM   #10 
     - ??????  lynyrd_skynyrd   Aug-16-08 07:37 PM   #11 
     - Yes they act by buying the ones in politics and then pull their strings accordingly.  Uncle Joe   Aug-16-08 07:40 PM   #12 
     - I think you are making the mistake of thinking they are not. nt  bemildred   Aug-16-08 08:27 PM   #18 
     - Well that depends on the flavour of self-interest.  baby_mouse   Aug-17-08 06:07 AM   #26 
     - They're not cartoon villains...but the majority SPEAK and VOTE that way...  Junkdrawer   Aug-17-08 06:55 AM   #28 
     - they're real people who genuinely want to make the world  seemslikeadream   Aug-18-08 09:48 AM   #35 
     - wow, that's one of the most ignorant, gullible remarks I've ever read here  RainDog   Aug-18-08 10:07 AM   #37 
  - OK  seemslikeadream   Aug-16-08 07:52 PM   #13 
  - I find it hard to believe georgia would have moved against russian  Hannah Bell   Aug-16-08 07:56 PM   #14 
  - Why Did 1,000 Marines Participate In A Georgia Military Excercise In July?  Better Believe It   Aug-16-08 07:59 PM   #15 
  - Possibly because Russian invasion of Georgia didn't look unlikely?  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-17-08 05:22 AM   #24 
  - " . .. and they don't want to see a return to the Cold War" --- ????  defendandprotect   Aug-16-08 11:45 PM   #21 
  - to renew the cold war, for their own selfish greedy needs  alyce douglas   Aug-18-08 10:32 AM   #40 
  - Until proven otherwise, I think McCain started this with one of his daily calls to Georgia.  MarjorieG   Aug-16-08 11:47 PM   #22 
  - Yes, the Bushites hate war  daleo   Aug-17-08 12:20 AM   #23 
  - You are an authority on what republiks want?  greyhound1966   Aug-17-08 05:25 AM   #25 
  - By DU standards, it seems so - in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-17-08 06:42 AM   #27 
  - You're only kidding yourself.  Xap   Aug-17-08 07:41 AM   #29 
  - Sadly, I can't say the same to you.  Donald Ian Rankin   Aug-17-08 09:01 AM   #31 
  - Sorry but neoconservative adventurism and hubris has led to this.  mmonk   Aug-17-08 08:41 AM   #30 
  - ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##  DU GrovelBot   Aug-17-08 10:13 AM   #33 
  - Well, I guess that depends.  yibbehobba   Aug-18-08 10:08 AM   #38 
  - The neo-cons were also wrong about Russia in the 1970s and 1980s  RainDog   Aug-18-08 10:23 AM   #39 
     - Great documentary.  yibbehobba   Aug-18-08 10:47 AM   #41 
        - It's the outcome of their view of the world  RainDog   Aug-18-08 11:21 AM   #42 
  - Oh my darling, can you ever forgive me for my sin of thinking badly of Republicans?  Overseas   Aug-18-08 03:26 PM   #43 

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