Early polls suggest Dems can increase Senate majority

[seafan]

Early polls suggest Dems can increase Senate majority

By Aaron Blake
05/27/08

A flood of recent polls supports Democratic arguments that the party will win a larger majority in the Senate in the next election.
Democrats have now polled ahead or within the margin of error in 11 Republican-held seats, as polls conducted in recent weeks show openings in second-tier targets including Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas.

There are 23 Republican seats up for grabs this election cycle — including five open seats. Democrats have only 12 members up for reelection and no open seats.
The only Democratic-held seat that is polling close is in Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) will face each other. The majority of races that are polling close are in Republican-held seats.

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The most recent numbers, released Tuesday by independent Rasmussen Reports, showed businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) 49-44 in the race for McConnell’s Kentucky seat. ..... “National Journal refuses to print Rasmussen polls, yet Democrat leaders will trumpet bogus polls like this one in a futile effort to create a false sense of momentum ..... McConnell spokesman Justin Brasell said, ..... But whatever the individual flaws of the polls, combined, they show a general election trending heavily towards Democrats, Miller said.
“I don’t know whether to put too much stock or too little into one given poll; each poll is a piece of data,” Miller said. “But those certainly aren’t the only polls that show these incumbents in trouble.”

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Mitch McConnell

“Take all of them collectively, and what this does show is that the environment is as bad for Republicans today as it was in November 2006, with no sign of improvement,” Duffy said.
A similar situation is also playing out in North Carolina, where state Sen. Kay Hagan has polled within 5 points of Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) in four polls in the aftermath of Hagan’s May 6 primary win. The most recent came last week, when the local John W. Pope Civitas Institute polled Dole ahead 45-43.
Dole’s campaign attacked the automated polls earlier this month and noted that one of them was from a Democratic-leaning firm. The Civitas poll is not automated, and it is from a GOP-leaning firm.

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Elizabeth Dole

Democrats have also polled ahead in at least some of the polling in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia, polling substantial leads in the latter three. They have also been within the margin of error in Minnesota and Oregon.
Though it hasn’t polled close yet, the party is also banking on Rep. Tom Allen (Maine) closing the gap in his race against Sen. Susan Collins (R). .....

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Susan Collins




The party's over.