Reply #66: Apparently the FBI has thought UBL dead since 2002:

[tekisui]

FBI counterterrorism chief Dale Watson said Wednesday he believes Osama bin Laden is dead — the first time a senior U.S. law enforcement official has publicly given an opinion on the al Qaeda leader's status.

Watson, speaking at a conference of law enforcement officials at a downtown hotel, quickly emphasized that he had no evidence that bin Laden was dead, but his comments suggest that the FBI has no intelligence that proves bin Laden is alive.

"Is (bin Laden) alive or is he dead?" Watson said. "I am not really sure of the answer ... I personally think he is probably not with us anymore but I have no evidence to support that."

July 17, 2002

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/07/17/attack/main515468.shtml