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Reply #46: The when is easy to figure out... [View All]

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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-04-07 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. The when is easy to figure out...
At least as an optimistic figure, I did the math in post 45, and came up with about 54 years worth of oil left in the world. Of course, this figure isn't accurate, it makes a few assumptions, the first is that oil consumption stays flat for those 54 years(it won't), second that all that oil is economically recoverable(it isn't), and third that the reserve estimates, which are optimistic, are actually accurate(doubt they are).

My math basically is for a situation where all oil is extracted, put in a big assed tank, in let's say Texas, and is refined as needed for consumption, which stays flat at about 82.59 million barrels per day. I'm going to guess and say it won't last that long in real life.
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  -Peak Oil: Real or not?? MisterHowdy  Jun-04-07 09:23 PM   #0 
  - Doesn't matter  Mark 2000   Jun-04-07 09:24 PM   #1 
  - you still have time to edit you post-  QuestionAll   Jun-04-07 09:27 PM   #3 
  - Most have given up on trying to get anything like halfway decent English out of internet folks.  BlooInBloo   Jun-04-07 09:29 PM   #5 
  - Welcome to DU, Mark 2000!  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 09:31 PM   #7 
  - Not.  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 09:25 PM   #2 
  - Its a fact, the Earth, and all its resources are limited...  Solon   Jun-04-07 09:28 PM   #4 
  - As Mad Max said in the Road Warrior.  JeffR   Jun-04-07 09:30 PM   #6 
  - What do mean, "real"?  Canuckistanian   Jun-04-07 09:32 PM   #8 
  - good point about not knowing.  MisterHowdy   Jun-04-07 09:40 PM   #14 
     - DUer GliderGuider and I have met a few times - he's the authority on Peak Oil  Canuckistanian   Jun-04-07 09:54 PM   #22 
     - thanks for the link  MisterHowdy   Jun-04-07 09:56 PM   #24 
     - Yes, Grasshopper, that is the real question  loindelrio   Jun-04-07 10:27 PM   #34 
  - I tend to think that peak oil is the real deal  MadHound   Jun-04-07 09:33 PM   #9 
  - If you want to get caught up with the peak oil doomsday scenarios, it will rule your life.  elocs   Jun-04-07 09:34 PM   #10 
  - all ready starting to rule my life.  MisterHowdy   Jun-04-07 09:47 PM   #17 
  - That too.  HypnoToad   Jun-04-07 09:48 PM   #20 
  - Sounds great!  rockymountaindem   Jun-04-07 09:54 PM   #23 
  - We are at peak NOW  Pigwidgeon   Jun-04-07 09:35 PM   #11 
  - Couldn't OPEC simply decide to produce more oil?  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 09:47 PM   #18 
     - Nope, next question! n/t  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:26 PM   #33 
     - Wrong! Next nonsensical response.  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 10:40 PM   #35 
        - First, that article is a "call" for OPEC to increase oil production...  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:49 PM   #36 
           - I don't think you really believed that I thought they could double production.  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 10:52 PM   #37 
              - Considering the post you were responding to, yes that is exactly what I thought...  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:56 PM   #39 
     - Produce more oil how?  uppityperson   Jun-05-07 12:54 AM   #49 
        - By no longer deciding to produce less oil in order to manipulate the price.  BuyingThyme   Jun-05-07 12:56 AM   #50 
           - I believe resources are limited. Do you?  uppityperson   Jun-05-07 01:04 AM   #51 
              - I just don't believe they've yet reached a peak.  BuyingThyme   Jun-05-07 01:09 AM   #52 
  - It's real  pscot   Jun-04-07 09:36 PM   #12 
  - so far...chilling responses  MisterHowdy   Jun-04-07 09:37 PM   #13 
  - See #15 for why I'm no so sure it is real. A fabricated reality is just as profitable,  HypnoToad   Jun-04-07 09:47 PM   #16 
  - Psychological manipulation.  HypnoToad   Jun-04-07 09:45 PM   #15 
  - hopefully, as you say, the truth is in the middle.  MisterHowdy   Jun-04-07 09:52 PM   #21 
  - Yeah, so the oil companies, 50 years ago, told Hubbard to make up this Peak Oil shit...  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:22 PM   #31 
  - Here's over 110 investigative articles by Mike Ruppert about PEAK OIL and ENERGY Look what happened  in_cog_ni_to   Jun-04-07 09:48 PM   #19 
  - Holy crap! And his residence was burglarized also!  Ilsa   Jun-04-07 10:02 PM   #26 
  - Its not the theory that I question  Jim4Wes   Jun-04-07 09:58 PM   #25 
  - Seems rather difficult to find "new oil fields" when all of them are practically tapped...  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:09 PM   #28 
     - Your analysis avoids  Jim4Wes   Jun-04-07 10:17 PM   #29 
        - What does economics have to do with it, I'm talking science, not voodoo...  Solon   Jun-04-07 10:25 PM   #32 
           - Couple things  Jim4Wes   Jun-04-07 11:01 PM   #40 
              - I find the definition of "giant oil field" interesting...  Solon   Jun-04-07 11:40 PM   #45 
  - "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones."  jtrockville   Jun-04-07 10:04 PM   #27 
  - I like that.  BuyingThyme   Jun-04-07 10:19 PM   #30 
  - I think that the *easy* oil has peaked...  Flatulo   Jun-04-07 10:54 PM   #38 
  - oil is a finite resource  sad_one   Jun-04-07 11:01 PM   #41 
  - enough said.  lonestarnot   Jun-04-07 11:30 PM   #43 
  - thanks for those links  zippy890   Jun-05-07 04:54 AM   #55 
     - I'm glad you found them useful  sad_one   Jun-05-07 06:48 PM   #57 
  - Peak Oil Is Primarily An Economic Event  loindelrio   Jun-04-07 11:28 PM   #42 
  - As an abstract's real.  TransitJohn   Jun-04-07 11:31 PM   #44 
  - The when is easy to figure out...  Solon   Jun-04-07 11:51 PM   #46 
     - :o)  TransitJohn   Jun-05-07 12:24 AM   #47 
        - To a degree that is true.  some guy   Jun-05-07 04:43 AM   #54 
           - That is true, and in some cases it is already happening, Oil Shale and Oil Sands...  Solon   Jun-05-07 05:21 AM   #56 
  - this a serious question?  RedCappedBandit   Jun-05-07 12:31 AM   #48 
  - It Will Happen  ribofunk   Jun-05-07 04:36 AM   #53 
  - Well oil can't last forever, but we have enough to continue on for a while  gravity   Jun-05-07 06:51 PM   #58 
  - Sort of real, but more as a catalyst for action than a catastrophe in the waiting  ThomWV   Jun-05-07 06:59 PM   #59 
  - hope your right about finding better sources of energy  MisterHowdy   Jun-05-07 08:17 PM   #61 
  - Peak Oil Not The Problem  SubjectiveHistory   Jun-05-07 07:57 PM   #60 
  - yes, eventually, Oil is not a renewable resource  LSK   Jun-05-07 08:18 PM   #62 

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