Reply #4: Obama Doing Well in Early Red State Polls

[Dr Ron]

Obama Doing Well in Early Red State Polls

http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=3426

June 17th, 2008 by Ron Chusid

Polls this far before an election are not very predictive as many people have not made up their minds and many events to come could influence the results. The national polls also mean little as the electoral college determines the winner based upon individual state results. While polling in individual states can change dramatically between now and the election, current polls look very favorable for Obama.

Ohio was a key state in 2004 and this year it looks like the Buckeye State is going to go blue. Public Policy Polling, which was accurate in their predictions for the Democratic Primary, shows Obama with a 50% to 39% lead over McCain.

Virginia also looks competitive. Rasmussen shows Obama with a one point lead. A Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain only leading by two points in Nevada. Other red states might not be likely to flip, but Obama is doing much better than expected. For example, Rasmussen only gives McCain a ten point lead in Kansas, which might force McCain to devote resources just to hold on to formerly solidly Republican states.

Due to leads in several red states, predictions with regards to the electoral college look very favorable for Obama. Mark Nicholas has listed several:

Obama McCain Net

Electoral-Vote.com 304 221 Obama +83
FiveThirtyEight.com 300 238 Obama +62
Real Clear Politics 238 190 Obama +48
Rasmussen Reports 260 240 Obama +20
MSNBC 200 200 Tied
CNN 190 194 McCain +4

(The formating isn’t working well but hopefully readers can figure out the intent of the columns.)

It is interesting that the two media polls, which have an interest in portraying a close horse race, show the race to be closer than the more independent sites. Naturally CNN, the Conservative News Network, has the most favorable results for McCain. MSNBC, which in recent years has tried moving to the left after their attempts to be a Fox clone failed financially, has them tied as a good representation of their mixed ideological nature.