Cleveland Audit Reveals Vote Count Discrepancy in Bush’s Favor–Need Help!

[Time for change]

We are requesting help in attempting to confirm vote count discrepancies in Cuyahoga County, which could prove election fraud in the 2004 Presidential election. Here is the background to this effort, the current status of our efforts to audit the Cuyahoga County election returns, and details of our future plans and request for help.


Background

It was well known in the days prior to the 2004 Presidential election that a Kerry/Edwards victory was almost certain if they carried either Ohio or Florida. Central to Kerry’s chances of carrying Ohio was a good turnout in Cuyahoga County, and especially in Cleveland, the most heavily Democratic city in the state.

Therefore, Cleveland was very heavily targeted by Democrats, with a massive voter registration drive and an intense voter turnout effort on Election Day. And these efforts appeared to be highly successful by Election Day, with 230 thousand new voters registered in Cuyahoga County in 2004, the success of the voter turnout effort evidenced by the presence of impressively long voting lines throughout Cleveland, and the Ohio exit poll showing a comfortable Kerry lead throughout the day. Even CNN’s right wing hack, Robert Novak, acknowledged that it would be an uphill climb for Bush.

But disappointing returns throughout the evening meant that by late evening, despite the exit poll continuing to show a comfortable Kerry lead, the hope for a Kerry victory depended on Cuyahoga County. But this remaining hope soon faded, as it became clear that the voter turnout from Cleveland was in fact miserably low, and by noon the next day John Kerry conceded the election.

What went wrong in Cuyahoga County?
The Democrats were not the only major Party that heavily targeted Cleveland. The Republicans also appear to have targeted it – but in a different manner. The 230 thousand new voters registered in Cuyahoga County did not show up in the final official voter registration figures because of massive, apparently illegal purging of the voter roles, which was apparently targeted at Democrats, as discussed in detail in this thread.

But that wouldn’t explain the low “voter turnout”, which is calculated as the percent of registered voters who vote. The low voter turnout could have been caused by central tabulator fraud, whereby the Cuyahoga County central tabulator deleted votes, especially from highly Democratic precincts. There is a good amount of evidence to support this possibility, including the following:

1) Surprisingly low voter turnout despite the presence of long voting lines throughout the city, as explained in this thread

2) Reversal of the normal positive association between number of voting machines per population and voter turnout, as explained in Section IV, page 3, of the Democratic National Committee report on the Ohio Election

3) Numerous anomalies noted by the Green Party observer to the official recount

4) Failure of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections to conduct the official recount according to the rules, including their non-random selection of precincts to be recounted, resulting in the indictment of two election workers.


Status of the current effort to audit the Cuyahoga County results

In the absence of a full hand recount of Cuyahoga County, one thing that could shed light on the theory that the central tabulator deleted votes would be a comparison of pre-tabulator vote counts with official (post-tabulator) vote counts. If the official post-tabulator counts are substantially less than the pre-tabulator counts, that could indicate fraudulent deletion of votes by the county’s central tabulator.

After making numerous requests to the Director of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections, Michael Vu, to provide those counts, and having received promises but no action from him, I sought help from Ray Beckerman’s Ohio Project. Consequently, Ron, a computer science professional and one of the Project’s most active volunteers, made an initial attempt to audit the pre-tabulator vote counts. What he has found so far is quite interesting IMO.

Ron has so far gathered data from 15 Cleveland precincts, all which voted heavily for Kerry. Of those 15 precincts, 11 demonstrated either very small or no discrepancies between pre- and post-tabulator vote counts, but the other four demonstrated substantial discrepancies. In all four of those precincts the post-tabulator (official) vote count is LESS than the pre-tabulator count, as indicated in the poll book summaries. The total discrepancy (i.e., lost votes) for the 15 precincts (almost all of that attributed to four precincts) is 163 votes. Since those precincts voted heavily for Kerry (over 90% on average), this vote loss favors Bush by a net of about 140 votes.


Future plans and request for help

Though data from the 15 precincts suggest a more widespread problem, the sample size is too small to base solid conclusions on it. Ron’s plan now is to obtain similar data (i.e., pre-tabulator counts) on about 200 additional, randomly selected precincts in Cuyahoga County, and then to compare those counts with the official post-tabulator counts.

If he continues to find large discrepancies between pre- and post-tabulator counts and is able to confirm the legal basis for those counts, and especially if Bush leaning precincts fail to show the same pattern (or show an opposite pattern), then we will have identified a very interesting situation that could be highly suggestive of fraud.

If that turns out to be the case, we would then make efforts to publicize this information as widely as possible, as well as consider what legal measures are available to pursue. The official recount of a three percent Cuyahoga County sample of precincts failed to find any vote discrepancy. How a fair recount could have failed to identify a single vote discrepancy is difficult to fathom, given the substantial discrepancies that Ron has already identified after looking at only 15 precincts. The precincts used in the official recount were not chosen randomly, but rather were chosen by the Cuyahoga County BOE. If election fraud was rampant in Cuyahoga County, they probably would have known what precincts they could safely use for the official recount.

Ron is seeking help with this effort. With helpers available to him the process can be made much more efficient and completed much faster. Also, it would be great to have witnesses available in case the BOE gives him any trouble.

If anyone who lives around the Cleveland area (The investigation will take place at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in downtown Cleveland) is willing to help out in this effort, please let me know. Whatever time you are willing to donate could be very helpful in unraveling the mystery of the Ohio 2004 Presidential election.


Note: Ron just joined DU, so he will be able to answer questions that I am unable to answer. Since he just joined this evening, it will be a few hours before he is allowed to post. His screen name is adagiopop.