Reply #5: Most of Iraq is shi'a. al-Sadr's daddy provided real, concrete help to

[MADem]

the Ayatullah Khomeini while he was in exile in Iraq. Khomeini's pic is all over Sadr City. They wear the black turban (the "we are descended from Muhamad" hat in Shia Islam) which makes them the coolest guys in the neighborhood. One of the main reasons that Sadr's daddy was killed was because of this closeness with the Iranian revolution.

The Iranians are helping the Iraqis KILL the Sunnis, see. That's why the Sunni House of Saud has told BushCo (when Cheney came for his asschewing last month) that there will be no rapproachment with Iran, and that the US is NOT allowed to leave Iraq, or else they would FUND a Sunni insurgency.

The Shi'ites hold most of the cards in Iraq nowadays. It's a bad time to be a Sunni there, because the once-trampled shi'a majority is into 'payback time' -- the question is, how much payback will satisfy them, or are they looking for a full-scale extermination? Some sure as hell are; others just want a pound or two of flesh.

The Iranians want to extend their influence in what is being termed a shi'a 'crescent' from Iran all the way to the sea in Lebanon. They want to use the majority population in Iraq as well as the substantial minority in Lebanon to accomplish this, and use as a bridge the smaller minority communities in Syria.

The Sunnis across the Arab world are freaking out at this plan--first, because they think Shi'ites are whacky (not 'true' Muslims, frankly, some of them feel) and this movement is led by people who are NOT Arabs--they're Persians, and I won't even get into the prejudices that go back and forth there. The Arabs think the Persians are soft and indolent mongrels, and the Persians think the Arabs are ignorant idiots who live in the desert and don't have social graces.

That is a broad brush view of the situation, and you'll find a ton of nuance in between, but it's how the lines are drawn of late.