Reply #7: "Training" vs. culture

[GreenZoneLT]

That's actually a very good question. The major emphasis right now, even before the ISG report, is increasing the trainers embedded with Iraqi troops. The hope is that we can indoctrinate the new Iraqi Army with professionalism and national patriotism that overcomes their tribal and sectarian loyalties.

Of course, as Hillary noted, hope is not a plan. I haven't seen anything detailed enough about the training to make me think they'll be able to create an army that is able to step in the middle of sectarian fighting without taking sides. Oh, well, might as well be optimistic; assuming the worst won't help.

The police -- fugeddaboudit. As Gen. McCaffrey said recently, they are a disaster. The Iraqi Army's probably going to wind up fighting THEM.

There's no danger of us having to fight the new Iraqi army as a body. One, they're barely armed; they have rifles and machine guns and that's about it. The major worry I have is that after we leave, the Iraqi army will splinter along sectarian lines, and the old Baathist professional army members will shift over to the Sunni insurgency. The Shiites have the numbers and the arms from Iran, but the Sunnis have the best fighters, including nearly all of the Baathist officer corps.

The worst, and quite likely scenario is U.S. withdrawal followed by a Balkan-style meltdown, with Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia all picking a team to arm, and Turkey muscling in on Iraqi Kurdistan. Thanks, neocons! Way to transform the Middle East!