You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #188: sorry, took me a while to find this again... [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-23-06 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #159
188. sorry, took me a while to find this again...
Even sampling an urban area might be trickier than one might think. The pollsters define "geostrata" in each state, intended to pick up on salient regularities such as the one you mention (I know nothing about WI, just taking your word for it!), and then use a sampling method designed to cover the partisanship spectrum more or less uniformly. Their models look at deviations from past performance. So if some region or 'type' of precinct is out of trend relative to the others, they may not immediately get a good measure of what is going on, but they at least have some early indication that something is.

On average in 2004, their precinct samples were reasonably accurate, but from state to state, there were pretty big discrepancies in both directions -- i.e., the vote counts in the sampled precincts (plus attempts to model absentee vote, etc.) didn't yield good predictions of the state totals. (Apparently the biggest discrepancy was in Kansas: paging Thomas Frank!)* Whether those discrepancies were driven by rural areas, urban areas, or neither in particular, I don't know. I just don't want people to think that there is some slam-dunk explanation, based on the exit pollsters stupidly undersampling rural areas and not compensating for it: that's not how the exit polls work.

* Here I'm drawing on pp. 29-30 of the evaluation report.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC