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Reply #126: This analysis is an embarrassment. [View All]

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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-22-06 07:47 AM
Response to Original message
126. This analysis is an embarrassment.
Edited on Wed Nov-22-06 07:56 AM by Skinner
To those of you who keep demanding to see the problem, here it is:

The problem is not in the mathematics (although I have not checked the math, so it's possible that there are errors there, too). The problem is in the assumptions he used before he even started.

TIA assumes that the "generic poll" should match the recorded votes. This is, quite simply, WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Does everyone here know what the "generic poll" is? The generic poll (usually referred to as the "generic congressional ballot") asks respondents which political party they support in the upcoming congressional election -- but it does not provide any names of any candidates. The generic congressional ballot is not -- and was never intended to be -- an accurate prediction of how people will vote. The point of the generic congressional ballot is to get a general sense of the mood of the voters.

Think, people. THINK.

Most American voters are not political junkies or activists. Even during an election season they could not tell you for certain the name of their member of Congress. When they get a call asking them their preference between a generic Democratic candidate and a generic Republican candidate, they will simply respond based on party. A large proportion of voters would be unable to think of the name of the candidate that represents each party in their upcoming congressional election.

But what happens when those same voters enter the voting booth on election day? They are presented with a list of NAMES OF REAL PEOPLE, their candidates, listed by office and political party. And they remember what they like and dislike about all of these people. They might have expressed support for a particular party, and they might hold that generic opinion of that party, but they like their own member of Congress and don't particularly care what party he or she is in. Or they might remember the ads about how a particular candidate was a crook or sexual deviant, and now that they finally face the realization he or she is running in their congressional district, they cannot possibly vote for him or her regardless of what party he represents.

Bottom line:

You can do the best, most accurate, most awesome mathematics in the history of the world, but if you start with completely false assumptions, your "analysis" is going to be worthless.

ON EDIT: If you want to see how the outcome compares to the pre-election polls, you need to look at the pre-election polls that list candidates by name from each and every congressional district. Someone mentione up-thread that this is precisely what folks like Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg did before the election, and their predictions were quite accurate.
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  -TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll mom cat  Nov-21-06 12:31 PM   #0 
  - Sorry, I got lost in the figures.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 12:38 PM   #1 
  - There is one chance in 76 billion that it was not rigged.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 01:37 PM   #8 
     - Thanks mom cat.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 02:09 PM   #18 
     - DATA TYPOS FIXED HERE ... (from TIA)  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:08 PM   #28 
     - Please note another eror in the text:  mom cat   Nov-21-06 04:31 PM   #45 
     - Be warned: she's very wrong indeed.  Donald Ian Rankin   Nov-23-06 07:59 AM   #184 
     - Yikes!!!  Roland99   Nov-21-06 06:58 PM   #56 
     - NO! NO! No, that's completely and utterly wrong, twice over!  Donald Ian Rankin   Nov-23-06 07:55 AM   #183 
     - Bush obviously prayed for a miracle! n/t  bananarepublican   Nov-25-06 03:36 AM   #220 
  - Hey, how is TIA doing?  iconoclastic cat   Nov-21-06 12:44 PM   #2 
  - Oh, Dear  ribofunk   Nov-21-06 12:47 PM   #3 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:13 PM   #30 
     - T he generic poll is assumed to be wrong  creeksneakers2   Nov-21-06 09:28 PM   #77 
     - TIA: Generic polls ask "would you vote for the Dem or Rep in your district"?  mom cat   Nov-22-06 07:52 AM   #127 
     - Ha! Ha, I say!  smalll   Nov-21-06 09:49 PM   #82 
     - Could you pls provide a citation or reference for your statement that  snot   Nov-21-06 10:35 PM   #84 
     - Take a look at the following link -  smalll   Nov-22-06 12:42 PM   #154 
     - TIA HAS THE LAST LAUGH  mom cat   Nov-22-06 08:02 AM   #129 
     - that's called "cherry-picking"  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 08:55 AM   #143 
        - TIA: Reply to foo-bar  mom cat   Nov-22-06 04:08 PM   #161 
           - so he admits he's cherry-picking  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 07:42 PM   #175 
           - thanks for the shout-out, guy  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:19 AM   #177 
     - TIA: 2004 pre-election poll detail  mom cat   Nov-22-06 08:04 AM   #130 
     - I see his surrogates...  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:46 AM   #112 
        - I assume that was just a direct quotation  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:02 AM   #119 
  - It's obvious some people have never taken Statistics  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 12:49 PM   #4 
  - No many of us haven't.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 12:55 PM   #6 
  - TIA has three graduate degrees in mathematics. nt  bleever   Nov-21-06 12:58 PM   #7 
  - So he claims. This is the Internet.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #13 
  - I keep hearing that  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #14 
  - And he uses Excel for everything...  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:16 PM   #31 
  - oh dear. Next time will you be 1000?  uppityperson   Nov-22-06 01:47 AM   #95 
  - "I'm not a statistician" -TIA  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:54 PM   #47 
  - TIA's resume as to studies is decent - and I believe him to be an honest guy.  papau   Nov-21-06 09:02 PM   #70 
     - grepping around with his "areas of expertise" brings up the course list for Clemson?  nick303   Nov-21-06 09:15 PM   #74 
        - It's a standard course list for a math major - no big deal IMO n/t  papau   Nov-21-06 10:18 PM   #83 
  - I'm A Billionaire  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:45 AM   #106 
  - TIA is brilliant and I would trust his work over the NYT or  goclark   Nov-22-06 09:32 AM   #147 
  - They're losers, and they know it's all going to come out in the wash.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-22-06 12:37 PM   #153 
     - yeah, all the skeptics will be sorry when the TIA revolution comes!  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 02:13 PM   #193 
     - Well, GV, I made two, what might be called, primary posts,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 03:59 PM   #197 
     - nice flame bait  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:11 PM   #199 
        - You may be able to learn from that. "Vulgarisation", as the French put it,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 04:14 PM   #200 
           - shall we be candid?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:27 PM   #201 
              - Well, I certainly wouldn't expect to learn anything from you, GV.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 02:14 PM   #204 
                 - do you actually read our posts?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-24-06 02:41 PM   #205 
     - Absolutely They Won't  stepnw1f   Nov-25-06 02:05 PM   #226 
  - That's irrelevant ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 08:36 PM   #216 
  - What about this analysis by the Election Defense Alliance?  ramblin_dave   Nov-21-06 01:47 PM   #11 
  - Exactly. The analysis of fraud is coming in from several reliable sources.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:14 PM   #20 
  - I think we all expected fraud  malaise   Nov-21-06 08:46 PM   #69 
  - this was debunked on the ER forum, but the dream lives on  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:59 PM   #48 
     - Two things for which I'll loan you enough rope to hang  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 12:15 AM   #88 
     - it's "fluoride" (and "fluoridation", "fluoridated")  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:38 AM   #94 
        - Fluoride or flouride - It was also 11:15Pm when I posted  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 11:48 AM   #152 
     - "Like Creationism, only people outside of their field can even  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-22-06 01:02 PM   #155 
        - "you people"? minus Skinner I presume?  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 07:27 PM   #174 
           - Cry baby. You can dish it out to believers, but you can't take it, when  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 11:59 AM   #190 
              - comparing bad science to bad science is offensive?  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 01:40 PM   #192 
              - Funny. You didn't sound at all open to any argument for Creationism.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 03:13 PM   #195 
                 - so the comparison is insulting to Creationism?  foo_bar   Nov-24-06 03:54 PM   #208 
                    - ""But like most terms of abuse, 'reductionism' has no fixed meaning."  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 04:34 PM   #210 
                       - "That's where you seem to lacking in perception."  foo_bar   Nov-24-06 04:46 PM   #211 
                          - More quotes? Tee, hee. Jim Lehrer's you latest guru, is he? I must say  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 06:46 PM   #213 
                             - do secular fundamentalists have gurus?  foo_bar   Nov-25-06 11:19 PM   #235 
              - yadda yadda yadda  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 03:11 PM   #194 
  - care to elaborate?  nashville_brook   Nov-21-06 02:47 PM   #26 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:38 PM   #38 
     - Just curious...have you taken statistics?  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 04:14 PM   #41 
        - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 04:17 PM   #42 
           - I'll take that as a 'No'  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 04:23 PM   #44 
              - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 05:12 PM   #49 
                 - If you'll re-read my initial post you may notice that my only point was  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 05:18 PM   #50 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 06:12 PM   #52 
                    - It's not my job to teach you statistics  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 06:23 PM   #53 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 07:24 PM   #57 
                    - And I'm still waiting for ONE of you to tell me you took a stat course  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 07:25 PM   #58 
                       - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 08:36 PM   #67 
                       - And still you avoid the subject...  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 09:22 PM   #75 
                          - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 10:47 PM   #85 
                             - Bring it on, you say? Consider it brought.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 07:59 AM   #128 
                                - Thanks for stepping in Skinner. n/t  seasonedblue   Nov-22-06 08:13 AM   #131 
                                - Why?  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:29 AM   #135 
                                   - OK.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 08:34 AM   #138 
                                      - Ok  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:38 AM   #139 
                                      - Better watch it, Skinner.  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:41 PM   #171 
                       - Okay, I passed a couple college statistics courses  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:06 AM   #97 
                          - Read Mine Below  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:52 AM   #142 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 08:34 PM   #66 
                    - Who's Chester?  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:49 AM   #107 
                    - I took statistics in college.  stevietheman   Nov-21-06 08:13 PM   #62 
                       - .  Hav   Nov-21-06 09:45 PM   #81 
                          - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 10:55 PM   #86 
                          - the whole OP is a mistake  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:41 AM   #109 
                          - Then Provide Some  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:31 AM   #136 
                             - I don't know who you are  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:19 PM   #173 
                          - Here's Two Of Them, Beet  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:33 AM   #137 
                             - THANK YOU!  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:43 AM   #140 
                             - I've Had These Discussions Before With TIA  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:48 AM   #141 
                             - TIA Replies to ProfessorGAC and Skinner  mom cat   Nov-22-06 01:53 PM   #156 
                                - In other words, he's full ot it.  rinsd   Nov-22-06 02:03 PM   #157 
                                - yawn  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:24 AM   #178 
                                - TIA should do his homework, any homework  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 10:57 AM   #189 
                          - it's a variation on a theme  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:01 AM   #90 
                             - .  Hav   Nov-22-06 07:05 AM   #125 
                             - Brilliant post ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 09:23 PM   #219 
  - polls do have a plus and minus factor--it is not an exact science.  WI_DEM   Nov-21-06 12:51 PM   #5 
  - All of that has been taken into consideration.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 01:39 PM   #9 
  - If it had been we wouldn't keep having stupid threads like this.  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 03:18 PM   # 
     - Is that why you troll these threads? Because of unaccounted MOEs?  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:12 AM   #98 
  - It's funny, however, that the plus/minus factor  davekriss   Nov-21-06 01:41 PM   #10 
     - no, that's not it  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 08:11 PM   #61 
        - That was my point  davekriss   Nov-22-06 02:32 AM   #103 
           - no, your premise is incorrect  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:36 AM   #108 
              - Always happy when you show up OTOH...  seasonedblue   Nov-22-06 08:21 AM   #132 
              - I view the response...  davekriss   Nov-22-06 10:36 AM   #149 
              - (blush) have a great one too! n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:17 PM   #172 
              - You still make my case  davekriss   Nov-22-06 10:27 AM   #148 
                 - your points about BIAS are right on!  nashville_brook   Nov-22-06 11:46 AM   #151 
                 - you have a lot to learn  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:40 AM   #182 
                 - well, if your point is  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:04 AM   #185 
                    - Turkey calls  davekriss   Nov-23-06 03:29 PM   #196 
                       - not really  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:09 PM   #198 
                          - OK, I read your paper  davekriss   Nov-26-06 12:11 AM   #236 
                             - thanks for the qq.  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-26-06 07:27 AM   #238 
                                - mal-pResidency discount  davekriss   Nov-27-06 10:41 PM   #239 
                                   - you're asking the right questions  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-28-06 05:46 AM   #240 
  - Oh come off it already. This posts just cause loss of credibility.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #12 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:39 PM   #39 
  - He never had any credibility to begin with. n/t  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:59 AM   #117 
  - That's why Chimp didn't fire Rummy before the election.  Last Stand   Nov-21-06 01:55 PM   #15 
  - Ah, so the fact that the election wasn't stolen PROVES it would have been.  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 01:59 PM   #16 
     - what's your point? We're now talking numbers here.  Last Stand   Nov-21-06 02:11 PM   #19 
     - Thank you for that clarification.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:16 PM   #21 
     - That is not what the poster said.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:18 PM   #33 
  - Recommended.  understandinglife   Nov-21-06 02:00 PM   #17 
  - #5 here. This just keeps geting better.!!!!!!!!!!!! n/t  autorank   Nov-21-06 02:23 PM   #22 
  - Glad to see you. I thought you had gone on vacation.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:27 PM   #24 
  - The problem isn't mathematical or statisticaL  robcon   Nov-21-06 02:27 PM   #23 
  - The exit polls are known to have a Dem bias.  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:09 PM   #29 
  - Actually, exit polls are quite reliable. The theory of the "Dem Bias"  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:22 PM   #34 
  - Link?  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:29 PM   #37 
  - riiiiiiiiight  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 05:46 PM   #51 
  - Known to have a Dem bias by whom?  crazylikafox   Nov-21-06 03:23 PM   #35 
     - I heard in on NPR.  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:28 PM   #36 
        - this roundup might help  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:09 AM   #120 
  - From TIA: THESE ARE 116 PRE-ELECTION GENERIC POLLS, NOT EXIT POLLS  mom cat   Nov-21-06 04:12 PM   #40 
  - Neither one is necessarily wrong.  Ms. Toad   Nov-21-06 07:42 PM   #59 
  - well, the issue here isn't wins in individual districts  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 08:26 PM   #65 
     - You're right - its not as bad as my initial quick look  Ms. Toad   Nov-21-06 09:12 PM   #72 
        - yeah, it's all pretty remarkable  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:44 AM   #110 
  - Ha! Ha! I say -  smalll   Nov-21-06 09:38 PM   #80 
  - The importance of your post, the point you make here, cannot be  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 04:03 PM   #209 
     - what is this, self-parody?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:24 AM   #223 
        - Just respond to smalll's post. How come the sudden interest  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-25-06 02:22 PM   #227 
           - on MY part?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:29 PM   #229 
  - Individual house race polls showed results very similar to what happened.  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:32 AM   #102 
  - You don't really know how well the polls generalize...  Sancho   Nov-21-06 08:43 PM   #68 
  - Indeed. They are overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas and  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:31 AM   #101 
     - I actually disagree with the first part  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:56 AM   #116 
        - I don't know about that. I did see a couple states that had some strange  Zynx   Nov-22-06 03:15 PM   #159 
           - sorry, took me a while to find this again...  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 09:01 AM   #188 
  - K&R  sfexpat2000   Nov-21-06 02:34 PM   #25 
  - Just as we figured, though we didn't use statistics...  TheGoldenRule   Nov-21-06 03:00 PM   #27 
  - Bingo! They misunderestimated their opposition!  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:17 PM   #32 
  - another great moment in TIA "history"  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:19 PM   #43 
  - You should know about shrill.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 06:28 PM   #54 
  - "I know what you are, but what am I?"  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:02 AM   #92 
  - Yes...  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-21-06 08:17 PM   #63 
  - Sam Wang, assistant professor of molecular biology ?  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 09:32 PM   #79 
  - actually the PhDs in statistics aren't always a bargain either  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:47 AM   #114 
     - I Posted Wang's Results Because He Had It "Right" And "Wrong"  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 06:11 AM   #121 
        - yup, and even his wrong was pretty right  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:26 AM   #122 
           - Dr. Wang is an honest scientist  slackmaster   Nov-23-06 07:34 AM   #180 
              - yes, this reminds me of one of TIA's greatest hits  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:17 AM   #186 
  - Wang subsequently admitted he was wrong  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:13 AM   #93 
  - Yeah. Same with the work of the insurance company actuaries. Absolutely  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 03:35 PM   #206 
  - Definite K&R . It does just keep getting more interesting.  livvy   Nov-21-06 04:33 PM   #46 
  - Just a thought maybe the rigging was  kster   Nov-21-06 09:14 PM   #73 
  - Well then, odds are votes were stolen, again. nm  texpatriot2004   Nov-21-06 06:43 PM   #55 
  - k&r'd, hon...  bridgit   Nov-21-06 07:51 PM   #60 
  - K&R'd  chill_wind   Nov-21-06 08:25 PM   #64 
  - This happens in virtually every election.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 09:06 PM   #71 
  - TIA is like Fox News, only for the left....  ShaneGR   Nov-21-06 09:27 PM   #76 
  - Interesting comparison -- one single "crank" with a theory vs. a major network  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:23 AM   #99 
  - My guess?  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 06:02 AM   #118 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 09:31 PM   #78 
  - I'm pretty much for mental health  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 12:19 AM   #89 
  - WOW!!!!  helderheid   Nov-21-06 11:29 PM   #87 
  - k&r  Swamp Rat   Nov-22-06 01:02 AM   #91 
  - Cook and Rothenberg predicted about a 30 seat pickup before the election  tritsofme   Nov-22-06 01:54 AM   #96 
  - Exactly.  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:29 AM   #100 
  - I'm not impressed by the mumbo jumbo  Cocoa   Nov-22-06 04:25 AM   #104 
  - Here's The Final Round Of Polls  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:42 AM   #105 
  - Interesting.  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:45 AM   #111 
  - :-(  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 05:46 AM   #113 
  - does getting other people to post it for him count?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:50 AM   #115 
  - Oh My God you folks are obsessed!!!!!  Perky   Nov-22-06 06:54 AM   #123 
  - Who Are You To Dispute 76,000,000,000 To 1 Odds?  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 06:55 AM   #124 
  - The "Massive army of knowing conspirators" theory is just one version  slackmaster   Nov-23-06 07:36 AM   #181 
  - This analysis is an embarrassment.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 07:47 AM   #126 
  - Absolutely  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:26 AM   #134 
  - Skinner, this is one of the best posts I have ever seen on DU  slackmaster   Nov-22-06 04:13 PM   #162 
  - I just want to say thank you ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 08:41 PM   #217 
  - so here's my question  Bill McBlueState   Nov-25-06 01:55 PM   #225 
     - It is a topic worth discussing  Mr_Spock   Nov-26-06 12:34 AM   #237 
  - Enormous And Unsupportable Assumptions Abound  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:23 AM   #133 
  - You're correct, Professor. Those "leaps in logic" include  Dick Diver   Nov-22-06 09:05 AM   #145 
     - You And Me, Dick. Let's Go To The Geek Club  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 09:08 AM   #146 
        - Sorry, Professor. When I wrote my post  Dick Diver   Nov-22-06 10:47 AM   #150 
  - PELOSI GET RID OF THE MACMINES  natrat   Nov-22-06 08:57 AM   #144 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-22-06 02:50 PM   #158 
  - We Can Settle This Easily And Fairly....  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 03:24 PM   #160 
  - YES!  slackmaster   Nov-22-06 04:21 PM   #165 
  - Thank You  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-23-06 05:30 AM   #176 
  - Or to the journals of AAPOR or the American Statistical Association, etc.  Gormy Cuss   Nov-22-06 04:41 PM   #169 
  - The lunacy continues with the help of water carriers  rinsd   Nov-22-06 04:18 PM   #163 
  - My Suggestion Is Eminently Reasonable...  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:20 PM   #164 
  - Yes, it was  rinsd   Nov-22-06 04:26 PM   #167 
  - 'tis a consummation devoutly to be wish'd n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:20 AM   #187 
  - You know what?  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:39 PM   #170 
  - Gore should still be President  savemefromdumbya   Nov-22-06 04:23 PM   #166 
  - this is all bs  DaveinMD   Nov-22-06 04:35 PM   #168 
  - This reminds me of Dan Rather's "Memogate".  CJCRANE   Nov-23-06 07:26 AM   #179 
  - Precicely.  mom cat   Nov-24-06 10:41 AM   #202 
  - And they wonder why we pillory them!  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 03:51 PM   #207 
     - well, I've always wondered  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:06 AM   #221 
        - I'm sure you have, GV.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-25-06 02:31 PM   #228 
           - I'm glad to see you say that  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:34 PM   #230 
  - Hmm...a 5.1% decline in Democratic vote share. Reminds me of my pre-election prediction  Kip Humphrey   Nov-23-06 12:24 PM   #191 
  - Whoever TIA is, he's pushing garbage.  bigriver   Nov-24-06 11:40 AM   #203 
     - He accurately showed that both the 2000 and 2004 elections  Cleita   Nov-24-06 04:59 PM   #212 
        - And I should trust your words why?  bigriver   Nov-24-06 07:26 PM   #214 
           - The reason his sycophants have to post his bilge is outlined here:  T Town Jake   Nov-24-06 07:39 PM   #215 
           - Curious.  Cleita   Nov-24-06 08:52 PM   #218 
              - no numbers or pie charts are necessary  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:11 AM   #222 
                 - Oh because some other mathematical geniuses have come  Cleita   Nov-25-06 11:52 AM   #224 
                    - no, you are seeing a lot of ridicule  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:43 PM   #231 
                    - This post is incorrect on so many levels.  Dick Diver   Nov-25-06 06:15 PM   #232 
                       - Thanks for bringing up my calculator again.  Cleita   Nov-25-06 06:23 PM   #233 
                          - Fine, then. Since you choose to participate in the conversation  Dick Diver   Nov-25-06 06:55 PM   #234 
 

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