You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU
mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-21-06 12:31 PM
Original message
TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll
Advertisements [?]
Edited on Tue Nov-21-06 12:56 PM by mom cat
The 116-poll House Generic Trend line projected a 56.4-41.6%
Democratic win, a 14.8% margin. The recorded vote was
51.3-46.4%, a 5.1% decline in Democratic vote share. The
Democratic margin declined from 10.6 million to 3.6 million
votes.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

116 Generic Poll Trendline		
Dem = 46.98+ .0419x
GOP = 38.06+ .0047x	

Substituting x=116 and allocating 60% (UVA) of the Undecided
vote to the Democrats: 
........Proj   UVA	Total
Dem	51.8	4.5	56.4
GOP	38.6	3.0	41.6

Assuming a 1.5% MoE, the probability that the Democratic vote
share would decline 5.1% from the Generic Poll (56.4%) to the
actual vote (51.3%) is 1 in 76 billion. The probability is
calculated using the Excel Normal Distribution function: 

Prob	= 1.310E-11	= NORMDIST(0.513,0.564,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
or 1 in 76,326,375,571

Calculate the odds for various MoE:
MoE.....Odds:1 in
1.00%	66,902,704,830,560,800,000
1.25%	1,501,199,875,790,170

1.50%	76,326,375,571

1.75%	181,561,494
2.00%	3,491,135
2.25%	227,190
2.50%	31,607
3.00%	2,333


U.S. House Vote
(in thousands)

	      Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep% Other% PMarg VMarg
Generic     41556	30946	1474	56.4%	42.0%	2.0%	14.4%	10610
Reported    37796	34194	1690	51.3%	46.4%	2.3%	4.9%	3602
Discrep    -3760	3248	216	-5.1%	4.4%	0.3%	-9.5%	-7008


Reported State Vote:
State Total Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep%	Other% PMarg VMarg

AL	579	224	352	3	38.7%	60.8%	0.5%	-22.1% -128
AK	202	81	115	6	40.1%	56.9%	3.0%	-16.8% -34
AZ	1127	479	576	72	42.5%	51.1%	6.4%	-8.6%	-97
AR	747	448	299	0	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	19.9%	149
CA	6236	3549	2479	208	56.9%	39.8%	3.3%	17.2%	1070
.
CO	1371	728	572	71	53.1%	41.7%	5.2%	11.4%	156
CT	1079	652	421	6	60.4%	39.0%	0.6%	21.4%	231
DE	509	197	291	21	38.7%	57.2%	4.1%	-18.5% -94
FL	3727	1497	2162	68	40.2%	58.0%	1.8%	-17.8% -665
GA	1916	799	1117	0	41.7%	58.3%	0.0%	-16.6% -318
.
HI	338	220	118	0	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%	30.2%	102
ID	435	173	243	19	39.8%	55.9%	4.4%	-16.1% -70
IL	3127	1732	1381	14	55.4%	44.2%	0.4%	11.2%	351
IN	1646	803	821	22	48.8%	49.9%	1.3%	-1.1%	-18
IA	1028	490	520	18	47.7%	50.6%	1.8%	-2.9%	-30
.
KS	827	361	450	16	43.7%	54.4%	1.9%	-10.8% -89
KY	1244	596	609	39	47.9%	49.0%	3.1%	-1.0%	-13
LA	901	294	580	27	32.6%	64.4%	3.0%	-31.7% -286
ME	529	345	161	23	65.2%	30.4%	4.3%	34.8%	184
MD	1344	828	475	41	61.6%	35.3%	3.1%	26.3%	353
.
MA	1068	793	198	77	74.3%	18.5%	7.2%	55.7%	595
MI	3516	1793	1626	97	51.0%	46.2%	2.8%	4.7%	167
MN	2178	1154	925	99	53.0%	42.5%	4.5%	10.5%	229
MS	581	251	295	35	43.2%	50.8%	6.0%	-7.6%	-44
MO	2050	965	1031	54	47.1%	50.3%	2.6%	-3.2%	-66
.
MT	805	314	476	15	39.0%	59.1%	1.9%	-20.1% -162
NE	586	257	329	0	43.9%	56.1%	0.0%	-12.3% -72
NV	573	287	259	27	50.1%	45.2%	4.7%	4.9%	28
NH	402	209	189	4	52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	5.0%	20
NJ	1859	949	885	25	51.0%	47.6%	1.3%	3.4%	64
.
NM	545	304	241	0	55.8%	44.2%	0.0%	11.6%	63
NY	3561	2285	1268	8	64.2%	35.6%	0.2%	28.6%	1017
NC	1842	935	907	0	50.8%	49.2%	0.0%	1.5%	28
ND	433	284	149	0	65.6%	34.4%	0.0%	31.2%	135
OH	3763	1970	1785	8	52.4%	47.4%	0.2%	4.9%	185
.
OK	905	373	518	14	41.2%	57.2%	1.5%	-16.0% -145
OR	1264	713	523	28	56.4%	41.4%	2.2%	15.0%	190
PA	3815	2061	1705	49	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	9.3%	356
RI	372	264	42	66	71.0%	11.3%	17.7%	59.7%	222
SC	1072	466	593	13	43.5%	55.3%	1.2%	-11.8% -127
.
SD	667	461	196	10	69.1%	29.4%	1.5%	39.7%	265
TN	1712	860	797	55	50.2%	46.6%	3.2%	3.7%	63
TX	3994	1783	2069	142	44.6%	51.8%	3.6%	-7.2%	-286
UT	549	234	283	32	42.6%	51.5%	5.8%	-8.9%	-49
VT	524	279	234	11	53.2%	44.7%	2.1%	8.6%	45
.
VA	2148	810	1220	118	37.7%	56.8%	5.5%	-19.1% -410
WA	1309	803	499	7	61.3%	38.1%	0.5%	23.2%	304
WV	446	258	188	0	57.8%	42.2%	0.0%	15.7%	70
WI	1852	1001	836	15	54.0%	45.1%	0.8%	8.9%	165
WY	377	184	186	7	48.8%	49.3%	1.9%	-0.5%	-2

.
.
.
.
.
.


HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE: POLLING DATA,
ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.truthisall.net/

Downloads in a minute (4mb)
Easy to use (3 inputs)
Press F9 to run 200 simulations
Pre-election/exit polls
(51 State & 18 National)

A challenge to all those who still believe Bush won: Use the
National Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" demographic
("NatExit" sheet) to come up with just ONE
plausible Bush win scenario. 

Note the feasibility constraint: The maximum ratio of Bush
2000 voters to the total 2004 vote is 39.8% (48.7mm/122.3mm)

Post the scenario on the Election Forum at
ProgressiveIndependent.com and/or Democratic Undergound.com 

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation_12255_image001.png

View the original 11/1/04 election model forecast of Kerry
winning 51.63-51.80% of the 2-party vote:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
  -TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll mom cat  Nov-21-06 12:31 PM   #0 
  - Sorry, I got lost in the figures.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 12:38 PM   #1 
  - There is one chance in 76 billion that it was not rigged.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 01:37 PM   #8 
     - Thanks mom cat.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 02:09 PM   #18 
     - DATA TYPOS FIXED HERE ... (from TIA)  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:08 PM   #28 
     - Please note another eror in the text:  mom cat   Nov-21-06 04:31 PM   #45 
     - Be warned: she's very wrong indeed.  Donald Ian Rankin   Nov-23-06 07:59 AM   #184 
     - Yikes!!!  Roland99   Nov-21-06 06:58 PM   #56 
     - NO! NO! No, that's completely and utterly wrong, twice over!  Donald Ian Rankin   Nov-23-06 07:55 AM   #183 
     - Bush obviously prayed for a miracle! n/t  bananarepublican   Nov-25-06 03:36 AM   #220 
  - Hey, how is TIA doing?  iconoclastic cat   Nov-21-06 12:44 PM   #2 
  - Oh, Dear  ribofunk   Nov-21-06 12:47 PM   #3 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:13 PM   #30 
     - T he generic poll is assumed to be wrong  creeksneakers2   Nov-21-06 09:28 PM   #77 
     - TIA: Generic polls ask "would you vote for the Dem or Rep in your district"?  mom cat   Nov-22-06 07:52 AM   #127 
     - Ha! Ha, I say!  smalll   Nov-21-06 09:49 PM   #82 
     - Could you pls provide a citation or reference for your statement that  snot   Nov-21-06 10:35 PM   #84 
     - Take a look at the following link -  smalll   Nov-22-06 12:42 PM   #154 
     - TIA HAS THE LAST LAUGH  mom cat   Nov-22-06 08:02 AM   #129 
     - that's called "cherry-picking"  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 08:55 AM   #143 
        - TIA: Reply to foo-bar  mom cat   Nov-22-06 04:08 PM   #161 
           - so he admits he's cherry-picking  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 07:42 PM   #175 
           - thanks for the shout-out, guy  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:19 AM   #177 
     - TIA: 2004 pre-election poll detail  mom cat   Nov-22-06 08:04 AM   #130 
     - I see his surrogates...  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:46 AM   #112 
        - I assume that was just a direct quotation  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:02 AM   #119 
  - It's obvious some people have never taken Statistics  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 12:49 PM   #4 
  - No many of us haven't.  Cleita   Nov-21-06 12:55 PM   #6 
  - TIA has three graduate degrees in mathematics. nt  bleever   Nov-21-06 12:58 PM   #7 
  - So he claims. This is the Internet.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #13 
  - I keep hearing that  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #14 
  - And he uses Excel for everything...  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:16 PM   #31 
  - oh dear. Next time will you be 1000?  uppityperson   Nov-22-06 01:47 AM   #95 
  - "I'm not a statistician" -TIA  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:54 PM   #47 
  - TIA's resume as to studies is decent - and I believe him to be an honest guy.  papau   Nov-21-06 09:02 PM   #70 
     - grepping around with his "areas of expertise" brings up the course list for Clemson?  nick303   Nov-21-06 09:15 PM   #74 
        - It's a standard course list for a math major - no big deal IMO n/t  papau   Nov-21-06 10:18 PM   #83 
  - I'm A Billionaire  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:45 AM   #106 
  - TIA is brilliant and I would trust his work over the NYT or  goclark   Nov-22-06 09:32 AM   #147 
  - They're losers, and they know it's all going to come out in the wash.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-22-06 12:37 PM   #153 
     - yeah, all the skeptics will be sorry when the TIA revolution comes!  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 02:13 PM   #193 
     - Well, GV, I made two, what might be called, primary posts,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 03:59 PM   #197 
     - nice flame bait  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:11 PM   #199 
        - You may be able to learn from that. "Vulgarisation", as the French put it,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 04:14 PM   #200 
           - shall we be candid?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:27 PM   #201 
              - Well, I certainly wouldn't expect to learn anything from you, GV.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 02:14 PM   #204 
                 - do you actually read our posts?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-24-06 02:41 PM   #205 
     - Absolutely They Won't  stepnw1f   Nov-25-06 02:05 PM   #226 
  - That's irrelevant ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 08:36 PM   #216 
  - What about this analysis by the Election Defense Alliance?  ramblin_dave   Nov-21-06 01:47 PM   #11 
  - Exactly. The analysis of fraud is coming in from several reliable sources.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:14 PM   #20 
  - I think we all expected fraud  malaise   Nov-21-06 08:46 PM   #69 
  - this was debunked on the ER forum, but the dream lives on  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:59 PM   #48 
     - Two things for which I'll loan you enough rope to hang  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 12:15 AM   #88 
     - it's "fluoride" (and "fluoridation", "fluoridated")  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:38 AM   #94 
        - Fluoride or flouride - It was also 11:15Pm when I posted  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 11:48 AM   #152 
     - "Like Creationism, only people outside of their field can even  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-22-06 01:02 PM   #155 
        - "you people"? minus Skinner I presume?  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 07:27 PM   #174 
           - Cry baby. You can dish it out to believers, but you can't take it, when  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 11:59 AM   #190 
              - comparing bad science to bad science is offensive?  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 01:40 PM   #192 
              - Funny. You didn't sound at all open to any argument for Creationism.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-23-06 03:13 PM   #195 
                 - so the comparison is insulting to Creationism?  foo_bar   Nov-24-06 03:54 PM   #208 
                    - ""But like most terms of abuse, 'reductionism' has no fixed meaning."  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 04:34 PM   #210 
                       - "That's where you seem to lacking in perception."  foo_bar   Nov-24-06 04:46 PM   #211 
                          - More quotes? Tee, hee. Jim Lehrer's you latest guru, is he? I must say  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 06:46 PM   #213 
                             - do secular fundamentalists have gurus?  foo_bar   Nov-25-06 11:19 PM   #235 
              - yadda yadda yadda  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 03:11 PM   #194 
  - care to elaborate?  nashville_brook   Nov-21-06 02:47 PM   #26 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:38 PM   #38 
     - Just curious...have you taken statistics?  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 04:14 PM   #41 
        - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 04:17 PM   #42 
           - I'll take that as a 'No'  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 04:23 PM   #44 
              - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 05:12 PM   #49 
                 - If you'll re-read my initial post you may notice that my only point was  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 05:18 PM   #50 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 06:12 PM   #52 
                    - It's not my job to teach you statistics  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 06:23 PM   #53 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 07:24 PM   #57 
                    - And I'm still waiting for ONE of you to tell me you took a stat course  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 07:25 PM   #58 
                       - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 08:36 PM   #67 
                       - And still you avoid the subject...  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 09:22 PM   #75 
                          - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 10:47 PM   #85 
                             - Bring it on, you say? Consider it brought.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 07:59 AM   #128 
                                - Thanks for stepping in Skinner. n/t  seasonedblue   Nov-22-06 08:13 AM   #131 
                                - Why?  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:29 AM   #135 
                                   - OK.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 08:34 AM   #138 
                                      - Ok  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:38 AM   #139 
                                      - Better watch it, Skinner.  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:41 PM   #171 
                       - Okay, I passed a couple college statistics courses  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:06 AM   #97 
                          - Read Mine Below  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:52 AM   #142 
                    - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 08:34 PM   #66 
                    - Who's Chester?  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:49 AM   #107 
                    - I took statistics in college.  stevietheman   Nov-21-06 08:13 PM   #62 
                       - .  Hav   Nov-21-06 09:45 PM   #81 
                          - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 10:55 PM   #86 
                          - the whole OP is a mistake  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:41 AM   #109 
                          - Then Provide Some  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:31 AM   #136 
                             - I don't know who you are  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:19 PM   #173 
                          - Here's Two Of Them, Beet  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:33 AM   #137 
                             - THANK YOU!  Beetwasher   Nov-22-06 08:43 AM   #140 
                             - I've Had These Discussions Before With TIA  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:48 AM   #141 
                             - TIA Replies to ProfessorGAC and Skinner  mom cat   Nov-22-06 01:53 PM   #156 
                                - In other words, he's full ot it.  rinsd   Nov-22-06 02:03 PM   #157 
                                - yawn  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:24 AM   #178 
                                - TIA should do his homework, any homework  foo_bar   Nov-23-06 10:57 AM   #189 
                          - it's a variation on a theme  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:01 AM   #90 
                             - .  Hav   Nov-22-06 07:05 AM   #125 
                             - Brilliant post ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 09:23 PM   #219 
  - polls do have a plus and minus factor--it is not an exact science.  WI_DEM   Nov-21-06 12:51 PM   #5 
  - All of that has been taken into consideration.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 01:39 PM   #9 
  - If it had been we wouldn't keep having stupid threads like this.  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 03:18 PM   # 
     - Is that why you troll these threads? Because of unaccounted MOEs?  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:12 AM   #98 
  - It's funny, however, that the plus/minus factor  davekriss   Nov-21-06 01:41 PM   #10 
     - no, that's not it  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 08:11 PM   #61 
        - That was my point  davekriss   Nov-22-06 02:32 AM   #103 
           - no, your premise is incorrect  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:36 AM   #108 
              - Always happy when you show up OTOH...  seasonedblue   Nov-22-06 08:21 AM   #132 
              - I view the response...  davekriss   Nov-22-06 10:36 AM   #149 
              - (blush) have a great one too! n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:17 PM   #172 
              - You still make my case  davekriss   Nov-22-06 10:27 AM   #148 
                 - your points about BIAS are right on!  nashville_brook   Nov-22-06 11:46 AM   #151 
                 - you have a lot to learn  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 07:40 AM   #182 
                 - well, if your point is  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:04 AM   #185 
                    - Turkey calls  davekriss   Nov-23-06 03:29 PM   #196 
                       - not really  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 04:09 PM   #198 
                          - OK, I read your paper  davekriss   Nov-26-06 12:11 AM   #236 
                             - thanks for the qq.  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-26-06 07:27 AM   #238 
                                - mal-pResidency discount  davekriss   Nov-27-06 10:41 PM   #239 
                                   - you're asking the right questions  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-28-06 05:46 AM   #240 
  - Oh come off it already. This posts just cause loss of credibility.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 01:49 PM   #12 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 03:39 PM   #39 
  - He never had any credibility to begin with. n/t  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:59 AM   #117 
  - That's why Chimp didn't fire Rummy before the election.  Last Stand   Nov-21-06 01:55 PM   #15 
  - Ah, so the fact that the election wasn't stolen PROVES it would have been.  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 01:59 PM   #16 
     - what's your point? We're now talking numbers here.  Last Stand   Nov-21-06 02:11 PM   #19 
     - Thank you for that clarification.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:16 PM   #21 
     - That is not what the poster said.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:18 PM   #33 
  - Recommended.  understandinglife   Nov-21-06 02:00 PM   #17 
  - #5 here. This just keeps geting better.!!!!!!!!!!!! n/t  autorank   Nov-21-06 02:23 PM   #22 
  - Glad to see you. I thought you had gone on vacation.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 02:27 PM   #24 
  - The problem isn't mathematical or statisticaL  robcon   Nov-21-06 02:27 PM   #23 
  - The exit polls are known to have a Dem bias.  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:09 PM   #29 
  - Actually, exit polls are quite reliable. The theory of the "Dem Bias"  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:22 PM   #34 
  - Link?  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:29 PM   #37 
  - riiiiiiiiight  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 05:46 PM   #51 
  - Known to have a Dem bias by whom?  crazylikafox   Nov-21-06 03:23 PM   #35 
     - I heard in on NPR.  survivor999   Nov-21-06 03:28 PM   #36 
        - this roundup might help  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:09 AM   #120 
  - From TIA: THESE ARE 116 PRE-ELECTION GENERIC POLLS, NOT EXIT POLLS  mom cat   Nov-21-06 04:12 PM   #40 
  - Neither one is necessarily wrong.  Ms. Toad   Nov-21-06 07:42 PM   #59 
  - well, the issue here isn't wins in individual districts  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-06 08:26 PM   #65 
     - You're right - its not as bad as my initial quick look  Ms. Toad   Nov-21-06 09:12 PM   #72 
        - yeah, it's all pretty remarkable  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:44 AM   #110 
  - Ha! Ha! I say -  smalll   Nov-21-06 09:38 PM   #80 
  - The importance of your post, the point you make here, cannot be  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 04:03 PM   #209 
     - what is this, self-parody?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:24 AM   #223 
        - Just respond to smalll's post. How come the sudden interest  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-25-06 02:22 PM   #227 
           - on MY part?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:29 PM   #229 
  - Individual house race polls showed results very similar to what happened.  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:32 AM   #102 
  - You don't really know how well the polls generalize...  Sancho   Nov-21-06 08:43 PM   #68 
  - Indeed. They are overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas and  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:31 AM   #101 
     - I actually disagree with the first part  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:56 AM   #116 
        - I don't know about that. I did see a couple states that had some strange  Zynx   Nov-22-06 03:15 PM   #159 
           - sorry, took me a while to find this again...  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 09:01 AM   #188 
  - K&R  sfexpat2000   Nov-21-06 02:34 PM   #25 
  - Just as we figured, though we didn't use statistics...  TheGoldenRule   Nov-21-06 03:00 PM   #27 
  - Bingo! They misunderestimated their opposition!  mom cat   Nov-21-06 03:17 PM   #32 
  - another great moment in TIA "history"  foo_bar   Nov-21-06 04:19 PM   #43 
  - You should know about shrill.  mom cat   Nov-21-06 06:28 PM   #54 
  - "I know what you are, but what am I?"  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:02 AM   #92 
  - Yes...  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-21-06 08:17 PM   #63 
  - Sam Wang, assistant professor of molecular biology ?  LeftCoast   Nov-21-06 09:32 PM   #79 
  - actually the PhDs in statistics aren't always a bargain either  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:47 AM   #114 
     - I Posted Wang's Results Because He Had It "Right" And "Wrong"  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 06:11 AM   #121 
        - yup, and even his wrong was pretty right  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 06:26 AM   #122 
           - Dr. Wang is an honest scientist  slackmaster   Nov-23-06 07:34 AM   #180 
              - yes, this reminds me of one of TIA's greatest hits  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:17 AM   #186 
  - Wang subsequently admitted he was wrong  foo_bar   Nov-22-06 01:13 AM   #93 
  - Yeah. Same with the work of the insurance company actuaries. Absolutely  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 03:35 PM   #206 
  - Definite K&R . It does just keep getting more interesting.  livvy   Nov-21-06 04:33 PM   #46 
  - Just a thought maybe the rigging was  kster   Nov-21-06 09:14 PM   #73 
  - Well then, odds are votes were stolen, again. nm  texpatriot2004   Nov-21-06 06:43 PM   #55 
  - k&r'd, hon...  bridgit   Nov-21-06 07:51 PM   #60 
  - K&R'd  chill_wind   Nov-21-06 08:25 PM   #64 
  - This happens in virtually every election.  Zynx   Nov-21-06 09:06 PM   #71 
  - TIA is like Fox News, only for the left....  ShaneGR   Nov-21-06 09:27 PM   #76 
  - Interesting comparison -- one single "crank" with a theory vs. a major network  0rganism   Nov-22-06 02:23 AM   #99 
  - My guess?  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 06:02 AM   #118 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-21-06 09:31 PM   #78 
  - I'm pretty much for mental health  truedelphi   Nov-22-06 12:19 AM   #89 
  - WOW!!!!  helderheid   Nov-21-06 11:29 PM   #87 
  - k&r  Swamp Rat   Nov-22-06 01:02 AM   #91 
  - Cook and Rothenberg predicted about a 30 seat pickup before the election  tritsofme   Nov-22-06 01:54 AM   #96 
  - Exactly.  Zynx   Nov-22-06 02:29 AM   #100 
  - I'm not impressed by the mumbo jumbo  Cocoa   Nov-22-06 04:25 AM   #104 
  - Here's The Final Round Of Polls  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:42 AM   #105 
  - Interesting.  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:45 AM   #111 
  - :-(  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 05:46 AM   #113 
  - does getting other people to post it for him count?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-06 05:50 AM   #115 
  - Oh My God you folks are obsessed!!!!!  Perky   Nov-22-06 06:54 AM   #123 
  - Who Are You To Dispute 76,000,000,000 To 1 Odds?  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 06:55 AM   #124 
  - The "Massive army of knowing conspirators" theory is just one version  slackmaster   Nov-23-06 07:36 AM   #181 
  - This analysis is an embarrassment.  Skinner   Nov-22-06 07:47 AM   #126 
  - Absolutely  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:26 AM   #134 
  - Skinner, this is one of the best posts I have ever seen on DU  slackmaster   Nov-22-06 04:13 PM   #162 
  - I just want to say thank you ...  RoyGBiv   Nov-24-06 08:41 PM   #217 
  - so here's my question  Bill McBlueState   Nov-25-06 01:55 PM   #225 
     - It is a topic worth discussing  Mr_Spock   Nov-26-06 12:34 AM   #237 
  - Enormous And Unsupportable Assumptions Abound  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 08:23 AM   #133 
  - You're correct, Professor. Those "leaps in logic" include  Dick Diver   Nov-22-06 09:05 AM   #145 
     - You And Me, Dick. Let's Go To The Geek Club  ProfessorGAC   Nov-22-06 09:08 AM   #146 
        - Sorry, Professor. When I wrote my post  Dick Diver   Nov-22-06 10:47 AM   #150 
  - PELOSI GET RID OF THE MACMINES  natrat   Nov-22-06 08:57 AM   #144 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-22-06 02:50 PM   #158 
  - We Can Settle This Easily And Fairly....  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 03:24 PM   #160 
  - YES!  slackmaster   Nov-22-06 04:21 PM   #165 
  - Thank You  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-23-06 05:30 AM   #176 
  - Or to the journals of AAPOR or the American Statistical Association, etc.  Gormy Cuss   Nov-22-06 04:41 PM   #169 
  - The lunacy continues with the help of water carriers  rinsd   Nov-22-06 04:18 PM   #163 
  - My Suggestion Is Eminently Reasonable...  DemocratSinceBirth   Nov-22-06 04:20 PM   #164 
  - Yes, it was  rinsd   Nov-22-06 04:26 PM   #167 
  - 'tis a consummation devoutly to be wish'd n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-23-06 08:20 AM   #187 
  - You know what?  yibbehobba   Nov-22-06 05:39 PM   #170 
  - Gore should still be President  savemefromdumbya   Nov-22-06 04:23 PM   #166 
  - this is all bs  DaveinMD   Nov-22-06 04:35 PM   #168 
  - This reminds me of Dan Rather's "Memogate".  CJCRANE   Nov-23-06 07:26 AM   #179 
  - Precicely.  mom cat   Nov-24-06 10:41 AM   #202 
  - And they wonder why we pillory them!  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-24-06 03:51 PM   #207 
     - well, I've always wondered  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:06 AM   #221 
        - I'm sure you have, GV.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-25-06 02:31 PM   #228 
           - I'm glad to see you say that  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:34 PM   #230 
  - Hmm...a 5.1% decline in Democratic vote share. Reminds me of my pre-election prediction  Kip Humphrey   Nov-23-06 12:24 PM   #191 
  - Whoever TIA is, he's pushing garbage.  bigriver   Nov-24-06 11:40 AM   #203 
     - He accurately showed that both the 2000 and 2004 elections  Cleita   Nov-24-06 04:59 PM   #212 
        - And I should trust your words why?  bigriver   Nov-24-06 07:26 PM   #214 
           - The reason his sycophants have to post his bilge is outlined here:  T Town Jake   Nov-24-06 07:39 PM   #215 
           - Curious.  Cleita   Nov-24-06 08:52 PM   #218 
              - no numbers or pie charts are necessary  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 07:11 AM   #222 
                 - Oh because some other mathematical geniuses have come  Cleita   Nov-25-06 11:52 AM   #224 
                    - no, you are seeing a lot of ridicule  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-25-06 05:43 PM   #231 
                    - This post is incorrect on so many levels.  Dick Diver   Nov-25-06 06:15 PM   #232 
                       - Thanks for bringing up my calculator again.  Cleita   Nov-25-06 06:23 PM   #233 
                          - Fine, then. Since you choose to participate in the conversation  Dick Diver   Nov-25-06 06:55 PM   #234 
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC