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TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll [View All]

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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-21-06 12:31 PM
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TRUTHISALL: 1 in 76 BILLION Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll
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Edited on Tue Nov-21-06 12:56 PM by mom cat
The 116-poll House Generic Trend line projected a 56.4-41.6%
Democratic win, a 14.8% margin. The recorded vote was
51.3-46.4%, a 5.1% decline in Democratic vote share. The
Democratic margin declined from 10.6 million to 3.6 million
votes.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

116 Generic Poll Trendline		
Dem = 46.98+ .0419x
GOP = 38.06+ .0047x	

Substituting x=116 and allocating 60% (UVA) of the Undecided
vote to the Democrats: 
........Proj   UVA	Total
Dem	51.8	4.5	56.4
GOP	38.6	3.0	41.6

Assuming a 1.5% MoE, the probability that the Democratic vote
share would decline 5.1% from the Generic Poll (56.4%) to the
actual vote (51.3%) is 1 in 76 billion. The probability is
calculated using the Excel Normal Distribution function: 

Prob	= 1.310E-11	= NORMDIST(0.513,0.564,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
or 1 in 76,326,375,571

Calculate the odds for various MoE:
MoE.....Odds:1 in
1.00%	66,902,704,830,560,800,000
1.25%	1,501,199,875,790,170

1.50%	76,326,375,571

1.75%	181,561,494
2.00%	3,491,135
2.25%	227,190
2.50%	31,607
3.00%	2,333


U.S. House Vote
(in thousands)

	      Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep% Other% PMarg VMarg
Generic     41556	30946	1474	56.4%	42.0%	2.0%	14.4%	10610
Reported    37796	34194	1690	51.3%	46.4%	2.3%	4.9%	3602
Discrep    -3760	3248	216	-5.1%	4.4%	0.3%	-9.5%	-7008


Reported State Vote:
State Total Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep%	Other% PMarg VMarg

AL	579	224	352	3	38.7%	60.8%	0.5%	-22.1% -128
AK	202	81	115	6	40.1%	56.9%	3.0%	-16.8% -34
AZ	1127	479	576	72	42.5%	51.1%	6.4%	-8.6%	-97
AR	747	448	299	0	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	19.9%	149
CA	6236	3549	2479	208	56.9%	39.8%	3.3%	17.2%	1070
.
CO	1371	728	572	71	53.1%	41.7%	5.2%	11.4%	156
CT	1079	652	421	6	60.4%	39.0%	0.6%	21.4%	231
DE	509	197	291	21	38.7%	57.2%	4.1%	-18.5% -94
FL	3727	1497	2162	68	40.2%	58.0%	1.8%	-17.8% -665
GA	1916	799	1117	0	41.7%	58.3%	0.0%	-16.6% -318
.
HI	338	220	118	0	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%	30.2%	102
ID	435	173	243	19	39.8%	55.9%	4.4%	-16.1% -70
IL	3127	1732	1381	14	55.4%	44.2%	0.4%	11.2%	351
IN	1646	803	821	22	48.8%	49.9%	1.3%	-1.1%	-18
IA	1028	490	520	18	47.7%	50.6%	1.8%	-2.9%	-30
.
KS	827	361	450	16	43.7%	54.4%	1.9%	-10.8% -89
KY	1244	596	609	39	47.9%	49.0%	3.1%	-1.0%	-13
LA	901	294	580	27	32.6%	64.4%	3.0%	-31.7% -286
ME	529	345	161	23	65.2%	30.4%	4.3%	34.8%	184
MD	1344	828	475	41	61.6%	35.3%	3.1%	26.3%	353
.
MA	1068	793	198	77	74.3%	18.5%	7.2%	55.7%	595
MI	3516	1793	1626	97	51.0%	46.2%	2.8%	4.7%	167
MN	2178	1154	925	99	53.0%	42.5%	4.5%	10.5%	229
MS	581	251	295	35	43.2%	50.8%	6.0%	-7.6%	-44
MO	2050	965	1031	54	47.1%	50.3%	2.6%	-3.2%	-66
.
MT	805	314	476	15	39.0%	59.1%	1.9%	-20.1% -162
NE	586	257	329	0	43.9%	56.1%	0.0%	-12.3% -72
NV	573	287	259	27	50.1%	45.2%	4.7%	4.9%	28
NH	402	209	189	4	52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	5.0%	20
NJ	1859	949	885	25	51.0%	47.6%	1.3%	3.4%	64
.
NM	545	304	241	0	55.8%	44.2%	0.0%	11.6%	63
NY	3561	2285	1268	8	64.2%	35.6%	0.2%	28.6%	1017
NC	1842	935	907	0	50.8%	49.2%	0.0%	1.5%	28
ND	433	284	149	0	65.6%	34.4%	0.0%	31.2%	135
OH	3763	1970	1785	8	52.4%	47.4%	0.2%	4.9%	185
.
OK	905	373	518	14	41.2%	57.2%	1.5%	-16.0% -145
OR	1264	713	523	28	56.4%	41.4%	2.2%	15.0%	190
PA	3815	2061	1705	49	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	9.3%	356
RI	372	264	42	66	71.0%	11.3%	17.7%	59.7%	222
SC	1072	466	593	13	43.5%	55.3%	1.2%	-11.8% -127
.
SD	667	461	196	10	69.1%	29.4%	1.5%	39.7%	265
TN	1712	860	797	55	50.2%	46.6%	3.2%	3.7%	63
TX	3994	1783	2069	142	44.6%	51.8%	3.6%	-7.2%	-286
UT	549	234	283	32	42.6%	51.5%	5.8%	-8.9%	-49
VT	524	279	234	11	53.2%	44.7%	2.1%	8.6%	45
.
VA	2148	810	1220	118	37.7%	56.8%	5.5%	-19.1% -410
WA	1309	803	499	7	61.3%	38.1%	0.5%	23.2%	304
WV	446	258	188	0	57.8%	42.2%	0.0%	15.7%	70
WI	1852	1001	836	15	54.0%	45.1%	0.8%	8.9%	165
WY	377	184	186	7	48.8%	49.3%	1.9%	-0.5%	-2

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http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation_12255_image001.png

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http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
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