Reply #43: '18% of independent voters said it raised... doubts about voting... D"

[ProgressiveEconomist]

"Wasn't relevant"? When an AWOL was directly impugning the concern for soldiers of a genuine war hero, not using surrogates as two years ago? A week before a crucial election, every potential bit of ammunition against Dubya is relevant, IMO.

Apparently, voters' memories -- and media news cycles -- are much shorter than two years. Foley/Predatorgate has disappeared from the headlines, and the generic Democratic advantage over Republicans has shrunk to alarming levels, apparently in large part due to Republican exploitation of Kerry's botched punchline.

From http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-11-05-nati... :

"President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center. ... The survey of 1,362 likely voters, taken Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of 3 points.

The president and the war in Iraq remain at the center of this election: 36% of likely voters saying that are casting a ballot for a candidate to send a message that they oppose Bush; 20% to send a message that they support him.

What's shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller. A month ago, the Democratic margin among registered and likely voters was identical. Bush and other Republicans have warned about the perils of electing a Democratic-controlled Congress, and they also accused Kerry of belittling U.S. troops in Iraq with comments he said were a botched joke. In the Pew survey, 84% of voters said they had heard about Kerry's remark, and 18% of independent voters said it raised serious doubts about voting for a Democrat."