A Record of "Fuzzy Math" by the Bush Administration

[Solly Mack]

The October 6, 2006 headline reads this:Budget Deficit Drops to $250 Billion



The story behind the story says this:




Bush Team's Fuzzy Math

"In his State of the Union address, the president pledged to halve the deficit by 2009. But his plan largely excludes the cost of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and does not reflect the long-term impact of Mr. Bush's proposal to make recent tax cuts permanent."


Halving the Deficit Will Involve Major Changes—or ‘Fuzzy Math’

Published: 01/10/2005


"These cuts will do little to alleviate the budget deficit. It is convenient for this administration to have such a large budget deficit so it can further its political priorities of shrinking the size and role of the federal government in the name of fiscal discipline. But the cuts the president will make in non-defense discretionary programs in his FY 2006 budget will do little to ease the budget deficit compared to rolling back some or all of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

The administration will certainly continue to use a “reducing the deficit” rationale to justify imposing entitlement caps in the FY 2006 budget. Entitlement programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, are funded by formulas set in law and not subject to the annual appropriations process. But by including entitlement caps in the budget, the Bush administration will further erode an important aspect of the social safety net just so they can avoid rolling back tax cuts for the super wealthy.

It has recently emerged the administration has another way of battling the budget deficit besides excessively cutting funding for programs and agencies. News sources, including the New York Times(have to pay for the article), reported the administration plans to both use the numbers to their advantage and omit the costs of certain major initiatives and policies.

" To show that President Bush can fulfill his campaign promise to cut the deficit in half by 2009, White House officials are preparing a budget that will assume a significant jump in revenues and omit the cost of major initiatives like overhauling Social Security. To make Mr. Bush's goal ..."|New York Times, reported the administration plans to both use the numbers to their advantage and omit the costs of certain major initiatives and policies.

The Times reported on Jan. 2 that administration officials have “decided to measure their progress against a $521 billion deficit they predicted last February rather than last year’s actual shortfall of $413 billion.” This means that they are going to use an inflated baseline in pursuing their goal of cutting the deficit in half. Last February, administration officials predicted a federal deficit of $521 billion. After the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, the Treasury Department reported that the 2004 budget deficit stood at $413 billion – $108 billion less than their earlier predicted deficit."



The Administration’s “Good News” Claim Is Based on Gamesmanship about Expectations

"The Administration claims that a $413 billion deficit reflects an “improvement in the nation’s budget picture.”<2> Such a claim is misleading at best. The Administration’s claim comes about only because the deficit did not increase as much in 2004 as the Administration earlier predicted it would. This is like a football coach predicting his team will go from a record of 6 wins and 10 losses to a 4-12 record the next year, and then celebrating when the team “improves” to 5-11."


The True Deficit is $574 Billion posted by DU'er ticktockman, complete with graph.