Reply #4: It's a very fragile, weak republic

[Selatius]

There are agreements in place that would prevent the militias from re-arming and waging war against each other. You cited one of them. Because the peace in Lebanon has always been precarious, Israel's bombing of Lebanon could have the unfortunate blow back of sending the rest of Lebanon back into civil war. This time, it could be not over the make-up of the Lebanese Parliament with respect to Muslims and Christians but over whether Hezbollah should disarm or be allowed to keep its weapons.

If it comes to that, it is possible that several Shi'ite militias will side with Hezbollah against Christian militias and possibly Sunni militias that want Hezbollah to disarm.