Reply #111: TruthIsAll: Kerry Won!!! ...An Interview with TruthIsAll

[autorank]

Link: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0512/S00242.htm
(permission to quote extensively granted by the author,
autorank aka Michael Collins)


Sunday, 25 December 2005, 7:43 am
Opinion: Michael Collins

Kerry Won!!! Statistical Tools Everyone Can Use

The 2004 Election Controversy will not stop. Statistical analysis of polls is now more accessible
with free interactive Excel-based election models available on the Internet.
Plus an interview with TruthIsAll.
Special for “Scoop” Independent News
from Washington DC
Michael Collins

USEFUL RELATED LINKS:
• The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation
• Excel Polling Simulation Model
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/MonteCarloPollingSimulation.xls
• 2004 Election Model Projection; Exit Poll Collection; Excel Interactive Election Simulation; Other links.
http://www.truthisall.net/

The Kerry concession speech on November 3, 2004 marked the beginning, not the end of the controversy over the 2004 election. Just hours before the speech, Vice Presidential Candidate John Edwards emerged and said that, “John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election every vote would count and every vote will be counted."

Democrats were in a state of shock. 2004 was a banner year for new registrations, party financial support, and activism. Reported new registrations favored Democrats all over the country. Democrats were well ahead of Republicans in new registrations in Ohio. South Florida, the “scene of the crime” in 2000, saw major Democratic efforts and a lackluster Republican response.

Democrats matched and exceeded Republicans in funds raised. For the first time, the internet proved to be a highly potent form of fund raising. The Democrats collected $10 million a month for the Kerry Campaign on the Internet alone. Other groups supporting the Democrats raised substantial funds. MoveOn.Org and New Democratic Network ran parallel campaign commercials and provided other support with the $25 million they raised during the election cycle.

Activism was at an all time high. People who had never worked in elections volunteered in large numbers and local Democratic parties throughout the country saw a surge in citizen participation.

While Kerry may have conceded the election at 2:14 p.m., Nov. 3, a large portion of the population failed to accept the final results. They knew something was wrong.

As one Virginia activist said, “This is simply not possible, the national results or here in Virginia.”

<snip>

An Interview with TruthIsAll

When was your first post on the 2004 election controversy?

Nov. 4, 2004: On DU “To Believe Bush Won the Election….” Will Pitt referenced the full post in an article he wrote a few days later and it spread all over the Net.

How many main posts on DemocraticUnderground (DU) and ProgressiveIndependent (PI) and other forums have you written on the election?

About 150 original posts.

Why all this energy devoted to the 2004 election?

I was appalled when the election was stolen from Gore in 2000. I had posted daily projections of my Election Model on DU in the four months leading up to the election. The projections were based on state and national polls. The final national model had Kerry 51.6 % of the two-party vote; the state model 51.8 %. The state model included a Monte Carlo simulation with a Kerry expected total of 337 electoral votes.

The initial exit polls and the Iowa Election Markets showed that Kerry was a 3% winner. When Bush came from nowhere after 9 p.m. to win, I had this feeling of Déjà vu. So I decided to confirm the doubts using mathematical probability analysis, based on the
preliminary exit poll data downloaded by Jonathan Simon.

Your posts on DU are like no others. They are intense, complex, and require careful reading? What do you hope to accomplish with your new work.

My goal is to present the analysis in such a way as to inform both those who may have limited training in mathematics and those more knowledgeable. At the same time I want to negate the straw man arguments of those who attempt to obfuscate and misrepresent the accuracy of the pre-election and exit polls.

Where can you be reached for questions on this work and other dialog?

I’m posting on PI (primarily in the “Elections & Voting Rights” forum – which contains a collection of TIA's most recent posts.)

From your first posts on DU, you have attracted a large group of avid supporters? What is it that draws these users to your work?

It’s probably because they are frustrated like I am that the truth has been kept hidden by the media, politicians, Democratic bloggers and professional naysayers. They appreciate that the analysis is comprehensive and honestly arrived at.

In addition to supporters, there have been smaller cadres of users highly critical of your work. How do you explain that?

I firmly believe a few have a clear agenda to debunk the exit polls. But how do they explain the pre-election polls? Others are in denial. They can’t accept that their votes don’t count. Many are math-phobic and miss the essential analysis. Others feel the need to impress colleagues with their conservative credentials by knocking a spread-sheet blogger. Others just think I’m just an arrogant wise-ass.

Are the criticisms you receive helpful in revising your thinking or redirecting your analysis? Examples?

Yes. They inspire me to do additional analysis. As an example, the UCSV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis was attacked by the usual suspects. I decided to take a different approach than USCV and developed an Exit Poll Response Optimization model based on the same E/M 1250 precinct response and WPE
data. The results confirmed the USCV analysis. Later, I did a similar analysis based on state exit poll data which also confirmed USCV.

Who and what are the major influences on your work, both in applied mathematics and political advocacy?

I almost failed elementary 9th grade algebra. One day as I was entering class, I saw my mother speaking to the teacher. From that day forward, I studied hard and got a perfect score on my 12th grade advanced algebra final. I went on to get bachelors and two masters degrees in applied math. As a career, I have focused on applying mathematics in the development of engineering, investment and financial models.

As far as political influence, my favorites: JFK, Hubert Humphrey, George
McGovern and Harry Truman, Adlai Stevenson, Edward R. Morrow, Bill Moyers.

Anything you’d like to say in closing?

I’ll keep posting as long as I have something to say. If my work has in some small measure helped to raise awareness, then it’s all been worth it.

Thank you for taking the time to talk with me.