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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #51
65. Republicans Wary of Pollsters
<snip>There is also the theory of oversampling Kerry voters which, while not a prevaling theory, probably does have at lest a slight effect given that Republicans are likely to ignore a pollster than a Democrat (since the pollsters are decked out in ABC-CBS-NBC-AP-etc. apparrell and over 50% of repubs don't trust the media, compared to just 38% of Dems). <snip>

Yet... the overwhelming 'reason' given by MSM was that "Moral Values"
was important to voters -- which shocked a lot of correspondents. Is it possible, that the Republicans gave info about the things they were most worried about, but didn't tell who they voted for? Anyone have the Numbers for how many picked Moral Values comment And told who they voted for, -vs just giving that reason without telling who they voted for?

just wondering.

thanks.
tracy
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  -ONE OUT OF 4.5 BILLION! TruthIsAll  Nov-26-04 12:16 AM   #0 
  - Unfortunately,  cavanaghjam   Nov-26-04 12:20 AM   #1 
  - That we are the ones having to dig up the FRAUD for others to see  nolabels   Nov-26-04 12:30 AM   #3 
  - Thank you! You are fucking awesome TIA!  Gentle Giant   Nov-26-04 12:25 AM   #2 
  - Pleas don't . In our  northamericancitizen   Nov-27-04 12:33 AM   #49 
  - I realize this post will raise eyebrows, but...  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 12:37 AM   #4 
  - TIA you rock with your numbers!  goclark   Nov-26-04 02:55 AM   #7 
  - UDAMAN TIA. Those who have ears should hear!  autorank   Nov-26-04 01:12 AM   #5 
  - Okay your wording is tortured  truehawk   Nov-26-04 01:53 AM   #6 
  - You are right. Your way is much clearer.  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 06:49 AM   #9 
  - This tells me that their tactic this time was to make minor adjustments  CoffeeAnnan   Nov-26-04 05:45 AM   #8 
  - They probably pulled the same stunt  Political_Junkie   Nov-26-04 08:22 AM   #10 
     - I agree.The way to make it appear legit is to positively tilt the tally  CoffeeAnnan   Nov-26-04 09:16 AM   #11 
        - agreed.  Political_Junkie   Nov-26-04 09:37 AM   #12 
        - Sh*t, They're gonna make me write a paper.  hootinholler   Nov-26-04 10:40 AM   #17 
        - Organization is essential and must happen quickly...  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 02:18 PM   #32 
           - Halt and Audit Motion  november3rd   Nov-26-04 06:23 PM   #43 
           - two questions, if I may  m berst   Nov-28-04 08:35 AM   #99 
        - A testable hypothesis exists and here is an attempt...  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 01:41 PM   #29 
  - Simple Question TIA  Nederland   Nov-26-04 09:42 AM   #13 
  - Go ahead. Refute the analysis, if you can. Avoid the strawmen.  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 10:23 AM   #16 
  - Personal?  Nederland   Nov-26-04 12:09 PM   #25 
  - from Jonathan Swift  Peace Patriot   Nov-27-04 07:20 PM   #78 
     - Thank you  Nederland   Nov-27-04 08:43 PM   #83 
  - thankyou for doing that TIA  keepthemhonest   Nov-26-04 09:53 AM   #14 
  - Noone seems to want to run the "adjusted" numbers  skids   Nov-26-04 10:03 AM   #15 
  - There is NO way to explain away this analysis without resorting  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 11:02 AM   #19 
     - HEADS UP! I WILL NOT BACK ON DU UNTIL SUNDAY. HAVE FUN.  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 11:06 AM   #20 
  - Analysis and assumptions  keithjx   Nov-26-04 10:50 AM   #18 
  - Excellent suggestion...and I hope efforts are underway...  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 02:04 PM   #31 
  - Looking at all them numbers there it seems that there could be.........  nolabels   Nov-26-04 11:23 AM   #21 
  - There is no ONE equation. The analysis works from the states  TruthIsAll   Nov-26-04 11:35 AM   #22 
     - What I was getting on about  nolabels   Nov-26-04 01:05 PM   #28 
        - I think I understand what you are suggesting...  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 02:38 PM   #33 
           - To that tune I would agree  nolabels   Nov-26-04 06:18 PM   #42 
              - Thank you for your comments and...  understandinglife   Nov-27-04 08:00 AM   #63 
  - Well, then this article seems a lot more likely!  spooked911   Nov-26-04 11:58 AM   #23 
  - Central Vote Tabulation: uncovering the method  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 12:00 PM   #24 
  - What seems very striking to me  spooked911   Nov-26-04 12:19 PM   #26 
  - Isn't it amazing  teewrex   Nov-26-04 12:46 PM   #27 
  - Hi teewrex  seito   Nov-26-04 01:55 PM   #30 
     - Kick for TIA  goclark   Nov-26-04 02:45 PM   #34 
  - kick  darkism   Nov-26-04 03:47 PM   #35 
  - Right-wingers who aren't ignoring all this are saying  another5bdem   Nov-26-04 03:58 PM   #36 
  - I also believe that the exit polls were correct  EOTE   Nov-26-04 06:13 PM   #39 
     - I also understood that not all the polls were incorrect, though.  another5bdem   Nov-27-04 01:57 AM   #52 
        - that is my understanding as well  m berst   Nov-28-04 08:48 AM   #100 
  - dKos post -- From 3 States to 16: A Miracle Surely happened....  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 04:14 PM   #37 
  - Pravda: "Like it or lump it".....  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 06:14 PM   #40 
     - Kick!  Melissa G   Nov-26-04 07:51 PM   #45 
  - great work  cynthia   Nov-26-04 05:00 PM   #38 
  - Great work  EOTE   Nov-26-04 06:16 PM   #41 
  - This is great  EOTE   Nov-26-04 06:26 PM   #44 
  - Kick (n/t)  understandinglife   Nov-26-04 08:08 PM   #46 
  - that pesky assumption  thereismore   Nov-26-04 10:58 PM   #47 
  - welcome to DU  Faye   Nov-26-04 11:00 PM   #48 
  - I would lay little hope on anything gov at about this time  nolabels   Nov-27-04 01:13 AM   #50 
     - Thank you for the link and outlining an other perspective. n/t  northamericancitizen   Nov-27-04 01:59 AM   #53 
  - The numerical estimate of 4.5 billion to one is not meaningless  EOTE   Nov-27-04 08:18 AM   #64 
  - Yeah...  Peace Patriot   Nov-27-04 08:06 PM   #80 
  - but why are there problems (whatever the cause) ONLY in states/areas  bobbieinok   Nov-27-04 08:33 PM   #82 
  - I think you are missing something  m berst   Nov-28-04 08:53 AM   #101 
  - STATISTICS LESSON: DO NOT TRUST THESE NUMBERS!!  c-macdonald   Nov-27-04 01:23 AM   #51 
  - In your colloquial "never bet on a sure thing"  nolabels   Nov-27-04 02:05 AM   #54 
  - I've played your game already...  c-macdonald   Nov-27-04 02:27 AM   #56 
     - Just saying if you keep on doing the same thing you will get same result  nolabels   Nov-27-04 03:32 AM   #61 
     - No it won't be overturned  tavalon   Nov-27-04 06:39 AM   #62 
  - We can't just sit back and hope for the best  The Bear   Nov-27-04 02:16 AM   #55 
  - i don't think we should just sit around and wait...  c-macdonald   Nov-27-04 02:30 AM   #57 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Nov-27-04 09:29 AM   #67 
     - Sorry... don't buy it  AuntiBush   Nov-27-04 02:27 PM   #70 
     - yes i'm a troll...  c-macdonald   Nov-27-04 03:32 PM   #72 
     - of course  m berst   Nov-28-04 09:05 AM   #103 
  - A picture is worth a thousand words  Protect The Vote   Nov-27-04 02:34 AM   #58 
  - i agree...  c-macdonald   Nov-27-04 02:39 AM   #59 
  - I think we can address some of your concerns now  Protect The Vote   Nov-27-04 02:55 AM   #60 
  - to address your graph...  c-macdonald   Nov-28-04 01:30 AM   #91 
     - You know exits polls are not random  Protect The Vote   Nov-28-04 02:46 PM   #105 
  - c-macdonald, if you are truly the statistician you say you are...  TruthIsAll   Nov-28-04 06:24 PM   #107 
     - Have you had a response, yet, to this comment?  understandinglife   Nov-29-04 01:12 PM   #120 
     - I'm checking the numbers n/t  c-macdonald   Nov-29-04 02:47 PM   #122 
        - My calculation is incorrect? You better look at this.  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 03:07 PM   #123 
           - It's too bad you found it necessary to erase your original calculations.  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 03:18 PM   #124 
           - here's the post:  c-macdonald   Nov-29-04 04:05 PM   #125 
           - obviously you want to keep it as simple as possible  c-macdonald   Nov-29-04 04:25 PM   #126 
              - Oh well  bemis12   Nov-29-04 04:30 PM   #127 
              - Let's see your analysis. In full. Don't just say it. Show it.  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 05:55 PM   #130 
              - You are wrong, once again. If exit poll data is not normally distributed..  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 06:10 PM   #131 
                 - The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates.  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 06:52 PM   #133 
  - 2002 - do exit polls exist  sonoradesertdem   Nov-27-04 08:02 PM   #79 
  - Republicans Wary of Pollsters  KaliTracy   Nov-27-04 08:24 AM   #65 
  - I don't think there is any reason to believe  EOTE   Nov-27-04 08:29 AM   #66 
     - But That Was the Reason...  KaliTracy   Nov-27-04 05:41 PM   #75 
        - the "moral values" talk was a myth...  c-macdonald   Nov-28-04 01:34 AM   #92 
  - Thanks for your post. A couple of questions.  spooky3   Nov-28-04 08:04 AM   #95 
  - impressive looking post  m berst   Nov-28-04 09:01 AM   #102 
  - what it's about:  thereismore   Nov-27-04 01:00 PM   #68 
  - American democracy's finest hour  Peace Patriot   Nov-27-04 06:57 PM   #77 
  - Beautifully stated!  wishful thinking   Nov-28-04 12:35 AM   #87 
  - nobody's saying it didn't happen...  c-macdonald   Nov-28-04 02:01 AM   #93 
  - A little intellectual exercise  thereismore   Nov-28-04 03:12 AM   #94 
     - "we need to beat them with facts"--yes, but you're not presenting facts.  spooky3   Nov-28-04 08:23 AM   #97 
  - Speculation about the validity of the exit poll data does not render them  spooky3   Nov-28-04 08:15 AM   #96 
  - I can't stop laughing. Are you serious? Or are you just pulling our legs?  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 08:14 PM   #135 
  - Analyses of votes compared to 2000 and newly register voters-same pattern  berniew1   Nov-27-04 02:11 PM   #69 
  - Thank you for the links & is there a link for NC absentee...  understandinglife   Nov-27-04 05:19 PM   #74 
     - North Carolina analysis  Peace Patriot   Nov-27-04 09:48 PM   #84 
  - CNN exit polls - Fraud live, and yet who reacted ?  LiberalMandrake   Nov-27-04 02:42 PM   #71 
  - Exit polls only count in Ukraine, silly!  robbedvoter   Nov-27-04 05:19 PM   #73 
  - power of the people  thereismore   Nov-29-04 12:29 AM   #114 
  - The exit poll data being used was only  LilKim   Nov-27-04 06:25 PM   #76 
  - Not exactly....and Brad commented much more......  understandinglife   Nov-27-04 08:17 PM   #81 
     - Thanks for the link which  LilKim   Nov-27-04 11:12 PM   #86 
     - Well, let's see the list of names from Jackman....  understandinglife   Nov-28-04 01:06 AM   #88 
     - The "baseball game" metaphor is right...  c-macdonald   Nov-28-04 01:20 AM   #89 
  - Greetings From Canada!  Mr Nadir   Nov-27-04 10:04 PM   #85 
  - i agree our election system sucks...  c-macdonald   Nov-28-04 01:23 AM   #90 
  - 2nd that  thereismore   Nov-29-04 12:33 AM   #115 
  - Ahem...  Peace Patriot   Nov-29-04 11:24 AM   #117 
     - aye aye  thereismore   Nov-29-04 12:00 PM   #118 
  - welcome to DU, Mr. Nadir!  spooky3   Nov-28-04 08:25 AM   #98 
  - Not just exit polls -- actual RESULTS seem to have changed  DSperoRN   Nov-28-04 11:17 AM   #104 
  - really incriminating  thereismore   Nov-29-04 12:24 AM   #113 
  - It helps to give an example...  Peace Patriot   Nov-29-04 02:12 PM   #121 
  - the stats and exit polls  ngant17   Nov-28-04 06:19 PM   #106 
  - The question is -- WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?  cloudythescribbler   Nov-28-04 06:52 PM   #108 
  - GLAD TO BE BACK! I HAVE READ THE THREAD WITH GREAT INTEREST.  TruthIsAll   Nov-28-04 06:53 PM   #109 
  - question about probabilities  waz_nc   Nov-28-04 09:54 PM   #110 
  - The probabilities are in percentage points, not decimals. 1.2% = .012  TruthIsAll   Nov-28-04 10:15 PM   #111 
  - What became of the over polling of female voters?  PrisonerLazy8   Nov-28-04 11:38 PM   #112 
     - oversampling of one subgroup is  thereismore   Nov-29-04 12:36 AM   #116 
        - Yeah, but...  Peace Patriot   Nov-29-04 12:23 PM   #119 
           - Yes  Nederland   Nov-29-04 04:30 PM   #128 
              - the evidence  thereismore   Nov-29-04 05:40 PM   #129 
              - exit polls  mmiixx   Nov-29-04 06:43 PM   #132 
                 - simple  thereismore   Nov-29-04 09:10 PM   #136 
              - "Occam's razor and all that". Succor for those who refuse to think.  TruthIsAll   Nov-29-04 06:57 PM   #134 
                 - Wayne Madsen has been reporting on a story that Bush did rig the election  spooked911   Dec-01-04 02:43 PM   #137 
 

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