cavanaghjam
(355 posts)
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Fri Nov-26-04 12:20 AM
Response to Original message |
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in the real world his odds are excellent.
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| -ONE OUT OF 4.5 BILLION! |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 12:16 AM |
#0 |
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Unfortunately, |
cavanaghjam |
Nov-26-04 12:20 AM |
#1 |
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That we are the ones having to dig up the FRAUD for others to see |
nolabels |
Nov-26-04 12:30 AM |
#3 |
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Thank you! You are fucking awesome TIA! |
Gentle Giant |
Nov-26-04 12:25 AM |
#2 |
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Pleas don't . In our |
northamericancitizen |
Nov-27-04 12:33 AM |
#49 |
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I realize this post will raise eyebrows, but... |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 12:37 AM |
#4 |
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TIA you rock with your numbers! |
goclark |
Nov-26-04 02:55 AM |
#7 |
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UDAMAN TIA. Those who have ears should hear! |
autorank |
Nov-26-04 01:12 AM |
#5 |
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Okay your wording is tortured |
truehawk |
Nov-26-04 01:53 AM |
#6 |
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You are right. Your way is much clearer. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 06:49 AM |
#9 |
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This tells me that their tactic this time was to make minor adjustments |
CoffeeAnnan |
Nov-26-04 05:45 AM |
#8 |
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They probably pulled the same stunt |
Political_Junkie |
Nov-26-04 08:22 AM |
#10 |
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I agree.The way to make it appear legit is to positively tilt the tally |
CoffeeAnnan |
Nov-26-04 09:16 AM |
#11 |
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agreed. |
Political_Junkie |
Nov-26-04 09:37 AM |
#12 |
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Sh*t, They're gonna make me write a paper. |
hootinholler |
Nov-26-04 10:40 AM |
#17 |
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Organization is essential and must happen quickly... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 02:18 PM |
#32 |
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Halt and Audit Motion |
november3rd |
Nov-26-04 06:23 PM |
#43 |
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two questions, if I may |
m berst |
Nov-28-04 08:35 AM |
#99 |
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A testable hypothesis exists and here is an attempt... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 01:41 PM |
#29 |
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Simple Question TIA |
Nederland |
Nov-26-04 09:42 AM |
#13 |
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Go ahead. Refute the analysis, if you can. Avoid the strawmen. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 10:23 AM |
#16 |
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Personal? |
Nederland |
Nov-26-04 12:09 PM |
#25 |
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from Jonathan Swift |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-27-04 07:20 PM |
#78 |
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Thank you |
Nederland |
Nov-27-04 08:43 PM |
#83 |
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thankyou for doing that TIA |
keepthemhonest |
Nov-26-04 09:53 AM |
#14 |
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Noone seems to want to run the "adjusted" numbers |
skids |
Nov-26-04 10:03 AM |
#15 |
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There is NO way to explain away this analysis without resorting |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 11:02 AM |
#19 |
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HEADS UP! I WILL NOT BACK ON DU UNTIL SUNDAY. HAVE FUN. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 11:06 AM |
#20 |
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Analysis and assumptions |
keithjx |
Nov-26-04 10:50 AM |
#18 |
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Excellent suggestion...and I hope efforts are underway... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 02:04 PM |
#31 |
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Looking at all them numbers there it seems that there could be......... |
nolabels |
Nov-26-04 11:23 AM |
#21 |
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There is no ONE equation. The analysis works from the states |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-26-04 11:35 AM |
#22 |
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What I was getting on about |
nolabels |
Nov-26-04 01:05 PM |
#28 |
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I think I understand what you are suggesting... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 02:38 PM |
#33 |
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To that tune I would agree |
nolabels |
Nov-26-04 06:18 PM |
#42 |
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Thank you for your comments and... |
understandinglife |
Nov-27-04 08:00 AM |
#63 |
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Well, then this article seems a lot more likely! |
spooked911 |
Nov-26-04 11:58 AM |
#23 |
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Central Vote Tabulation: uncovering the method |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 12:00 PM |
#24 |
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What seems very striking to me |
spooked911 |
Nov-26-04 12:19 PM |
#26 |
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Isn't it amazing |
teewrex |
Nov-26-04 12:46 PM |
#27 |
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Hi teewrex |
seito |
Nov-26-04 01:55 PM |
#30 |
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Kick for TIA |
goclark |
Nov-26-04 02:45 PM |
#34 |
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kick |
darkism |
Nov-26-04 03:47 PM |
#35 |
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Right-wingers who aren't ignoring all this are saying |
another5bdem |
Nov-26-04 03:58 PM |
#36 |
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I also believe that the exit polls were correct |
EOTE |
Nov-26-04 06:13 PM |
#39 |
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I also understood that not all the polls were incorrect, though. |
another5bdem |
Nov-27-04 01:57 AM |
#52 |
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that is my understanding as well |
m berst |
Nov-28-04 08:48 AM |
#100 |
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dKos post -- From 3 States to 16: A Miracle Surely happened.... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 04:14 PM |
#37 |
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Pravda: "Like it or lump it"..... |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 06:14 PM |
#40 |
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Kick! |
Melissa G |
Nov-26-04 07:51 PM |
#45 |
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great work |
cynthia |
Nov-26-04 05:00 PM |
#38 |
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Great work |
EOTE |
Nov-26-04 06:16 PM |
#41 |
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This is great |
EOTE |
Nov-26-04 06:26 PM |
#44 |
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Kick (n/t) |
understandinglife |
Nov-26-04 08:08 PM |
#46 |
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that pesky assumption |
thereismore |
Nov-26-04 10:58 PM |
#47 |
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welcome to DU |
Faye |
Nov-26-04 11:00 PM |
#48 |
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I would lay little hope on anything gov at about this time |
nolabels |
Nov-27-04 01:13 AM |
#50 |
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Thank you for the link and outlining an other perspective. n/t |
northamericancitizen |
Nov-27-04 01:59 AM |
#53 |
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The numerical estimate of 4.5 billion to one is not meaningless |
EOTE |
Nov-27-04 08:18 AM |
#64 |
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Yeah... |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-27-04 08:06 PM |
#80 |
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but why are there problems (whatever the cause) ONLY in states/areas |
bobbieinok |
Nov-27-04 08:33 PM |
#82 |
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I think you are missing something |
m berst |
Nov-28-04 08:53 AM |
#101 |
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STATISTICS LESSON: DO NOT TRUST THESE NUMBERS!! |
c-macdonald |
Nov-27-04 01:23 AM |
#51 |
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In your colloquial "never bet on a sure thing" |
nolabels |
Nov-27-04 02:05 AM |
#54 |
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I've played your game already... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-27-04 02:27 AM |
#56 |
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Just saying if you keep on doing the same thing you will get same result |
nolabels |
Nov-27-04 03:32 AM |
#61 |
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No it won't be overturned |
tavalon |
Nov-27-04 06:39 AM |
#62 |
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We can't just sit back and hope for the best |
The Bear |
Nov-27-04 02:16 AM |
#55 |
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i don't think we should just sit around and wait... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-27-04 02:30 AM |
#57 |
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Deleted message |
Name removed |
Nov-27-04 09:29 AM |
#67 |
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Sorry... don't buy it |
AuntiBush |
Nov-27-04 02:27 PM |
#70 |
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yes i'm a troll... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-27-04 03:32 PM |
#72 |
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of course |
m berst |
Nov-28-04 09:05 AM |
#103 |
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A picture is worth a thousand words |
Protect The Vote |
Nov-27-04 02:34 AM |
#58 |
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i agree... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-27-04 02:39 AM |
#59 |
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I think we can address some of your concerns now |
Protect The Vote |
Nov-27-04 02:55 AM |
#60 |
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to address your graph... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-28-04 01:30 AM |
#91 |
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You know exits polls are not random |
Protect The Vote |
Nov-28-04 02:46 PM |
#105 |
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c-macdonald, if you are truly the statistician you say you are... |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-28-04 06:24 PM |
#107 |
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Have you had a response, yet, to this comment? |
understandinglife |
Nov-29-04 01:12 PM |
#120 |
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I'm checking the numbers n/t |
c-macdonald |
Nov-29-04 02:47 PM |
#122 |
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My calculation is incorrect? You better look at this. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 03:07 PM |
#123 |
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It's too bad you found it necessary to erase your original calculations. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 03:18 PM |
#124 |
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here's the post: |
c-macdonald |
Nov-29-04 04:05 PM |
#125 |
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obviously you want to keep it as simple as possible |
c-macdonald |
Nov-29-04 04:25 PM |
#126 |
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Oh well |
bemis12 |
Nov-29-04 04:30 PM |
#127 |
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Let's see your analysis. In full. Don't just say it. Show it. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 05:55 PM |
#130 |
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You are wrong, once again. If exit poll data is not normally distributed.. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 06:10 PM |
#131 |
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The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 06:52 PM |
#133 |
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2002 - do exit polls exist |
sonoradesertdem |
Nov-27-04 08:02 PM |
#79 |
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Republicans Wary of Pollsters |
KaliTracy |
Nov-27-04 08:24 AM |
#65 |
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I don't think there is any reason to believe |
EOTE |
Nov-27-04 08:29 AM |
#66 |
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But That Was the Reason... |
KaliTracy |
Nov-27-04 05:41 PM |
#75 |
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the "moral values" talk was a myth... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-28-04 01:34 AM |
#92 |
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Thanks for your post. A couple of questions. |
spooky3 |
Nov-28-04 08:04 AM |
#95 |
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impressive looking post |
m berst |
Nov-28-04 09:01 AM |
#102 |
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what it's about: |
thereismore |
Nov-27-04 01:00 PM |
#68 |
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American democracy's finest hour |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-27-04 06:57 PM |
#77 |
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Beautifully stated! |
wishful thinking |
Nov-28-04 12:35 AM |
#87 |
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nobody's saying it didn't happen... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-28-04 02:01 AM |
#93 |
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A little intellectual exercise |
thereismore |
Nov-28-04 03:12 AM |
#94 |
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"we need to beat them with facts"--yes, but you're not presenting facts. |
spooky3 |
Nov-28-04 08:23 AM |
#97 |
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Speculation about the validity of the exit poll data does not render them |
spooky3 |
Nov-28-04 08:15 AM |
#96 |
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I can't stop laughing. Are you serious? Or are you just pulling our legs? |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 08:14 PM |
#135 |
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Analyses of votes compared to 2000 and newly register voters-same pattern |
berniew1 |
Nov-27-04 02:11 PM |
#69 |
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Thank you for the links & is there a link for NC absentee... |
understandinglife |
Nov-27-04 05:19 PM |
#74 |
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North Carolina analysis |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-27-04 09:48 PM |
#84 |
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CNN exit polls - Fraud live, and yet who reacted ? |
LiberalMandrake |
Nov-27-04 02:42 PM |
#71 |
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Exit polls only count in Ukraine, silly! |
robbedvoter |
Nov-27-04 05:19 PM |
#73 |
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power of the people |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 12:29 AM |
#114 |
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The exit poll data being used was only |
LilKim |
Nov-27-04 06:25 PM |
#76 |
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Not exactly....and Brad commented much more...... |
understandinglife |
Nov-27-04 08:17 PM |
#81 |
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Thanks for the link which |
LilKim |
Nov-27-04 11:12 PM |
#86 |
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Well, let's see the list of names from Jackman.... |
understandinglife |
Nov-28-04 01:06 AM |
#88 |
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The "baseball game" metaphor is right... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-28-04 01:20 AM |
#89 |
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Greetings From Canada! |
Mr Nadir |
Nov-27-04 10:04 PM |
#85 |
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i agree our election system sucks... |
c-macdonald |
Nov-28-04 01:23 AM |
#90 |
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2nd that |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 12:33 AM |
#115 |
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Ahem... |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-29-04 11:24 AM |
#117 |
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aye aye |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 12:00 PM |
#118 |
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welcome to DU, Mr. Nadir! |
spooky3 |
Nov-28-04 08:25 AM |
#98 |
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Not just exit polls -- actual RESULTS seem to have changed |
DSperoRN |
Nov-28-04 11:17 AM |
#104 |
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really incriminating |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 12:24 AM |
#113 |
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It helps to give an example... |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-29-04 02:12 PM |
#121 |
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the stats and exit polls |
ngant17 |
Nov-28-04 06:19 PM |
#106 |
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The question is -- WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? |
cloudythescribbler |
Nov-28-04 06:52 PM |
#108 |
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GLAD TO BE BACK! I HAVE READ THE THREAD WITH GREAT INTEREST. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-28-04 06:53 PM |
#109 |
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question about probabilities |
waz_nc |
Nov-28-04 09:54 PM |
#110 |
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The probabilities are in percentage points, not decimals. 1.2% = .012 |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-28-04 10:15 PM |
#111 |
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What became of the over polling of female voters? |
PrisonerLazy8 |
Nov-28-04 11:38 PM |
#112 |
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oversampling of one subgroup is |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 12:36 AM |
#116 |
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Yeah, but... |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-29-04 12:23 PM |
#119 |
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Yes |
Nederland |
Nov-29-04 04:30 PM |
#128 |
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the evidence |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 05:40 PM |
#129 |
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exit polls |
mmiixx |
Nov-29-04 06:43 PM |
#132 |
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simple |
thereismore |
Nov-29-04 09:10 PM |
#136 |
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"Occam's razor and all that". Succor for those who refuse to think. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-29-04 06:57 PM |
#134 |
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Wayne Madsen has been reporting on a story that Bush did rig the election |
spooked911 |
Dec-01-04 02:43 PM |
#137 |
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