TruthIsAll
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Sat Nov-20-04 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
| 54. Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls. |
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They matched up very closely.
One post has a graph of all the states; the other a graph of the 20 battleground states.
The state final pre-election polling was right on.
Average deviation: less than 1/2 of one percent.
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| -4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 12:24 AM |
#0 |
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Looks much more realistic to me |
Cronus Protagonist |
Nov-17-04 12:37 AM |
#1 |
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LOOK HERE |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 12:39 AM |
#2 |
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Yup, I thought they looked much more realistic |
Cronus Protagonist |
Nov-17-04 01:01 AM |
#3 |
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Plus there are more numbers aren't there TIA looks like 51 states to me |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 01:18 AM |
#6 |
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Link to Final ELECTION MODEL Projection |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 10:38 AM |
#22 |
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They kept NH in play all night. |
Old and In the Way |
Nov-17-04 01:04 AM |
#4 |
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look at the numbers from electoral-vote.com for Nov 1 ... |
imaginary girl |
Nov-17-04 01:12 AM |
#5 |
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the same site's numbers for Nov 2 |
unpossibles |
Nov-17-04 01:19 AM |
#7 |
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Actually he explained those numbers |
imaginary girl |
Nov-17-04 01:42 AM |
#10 |
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The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4% |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 01:24 AM |
#8 |
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Yup, the Minnesota numbers |
Carolab |
Nov-17-04 01:37 AM |
#9 |
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Same data plus actual results and red shift |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 01:54 AM |
#11 |
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Sorted by Redshift (the Freeman / Simon Analysis) |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:04 AM |
#13 |
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Only 9 States shifted to Kerry - 42 Shifted against him |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:06 AM |
#14 |
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As a graph... someone else can probably do a better version of this |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:12 AM |
#15 |
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can somene make a graph including all the state names? (nt) |
Middle Finger Bush |
Nov-17-04 02:23 PM |
#27 |
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Looking at these figures |
Justathought |
Nov-17-04 04:21 PM |
#35 |
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What would be interesting |
Nederland |
Nov-17-04 08:25 PM |
#46 |
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Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls. |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-20-04 12:04 PM |
#54 |
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Note the 8% point swing in New York... you might have thought the NYT... |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:18 AM |
#16 |
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THIS IS GREAT.. for comparison, is 00/96 data available? |
BREMPRO |
Nov-17-04 08:10 AM |
#19 |
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I found a link to 2000 data.. it was a bit of a jungle though. |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:01 PM |
#23 |
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Here it is - 2000 exit poll resources |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:02 PM |
#24 |
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You have reversed your Delaware and DC Numbers TIA |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:02 AM |
#12 |
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Sample sizes... This data is based on roughly half the total exit poll |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:27 AM |
#17 |
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One wouldn't expect a big shift, |
ewulf |
Nov-17-04 03:15 PM |
#30 |
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That said the samples in each state are much smaller |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 04:39 PM |
#37 |
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Wrong spot n/t |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 04:49 PM |
#38 |
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Instant News.... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 03:51 AM |
#18 |
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Some advice for communicating with boobies... |
Peace Patriot |
Nov-18-04 09:25 AM |
#50 |
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It's in line w/ predictions made by electoral-vote.com |
Bread and Circus |
Nov-17-04 08:37 AM |
#20 |
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Want a little help with that, B&C? |
Eloriel |
Nov-17-04 04:07 PM |
#33 |
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ALTHECAT, THIS WAS THE FINAL ELECTION MODEL PROJECTION |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 08:54 AM |
#21 |
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Is this your final projection TIA? |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:09 PM |
#25 |
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To be precise, the state polling data was the BASIS for my projection |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 03:40 PM |
#31 |
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Al, I'm sorry but I don't recall where I got the last 4 of the 51 states |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-17-04 03:48 PM |
#32 |
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DEAR DUers - PLEASE CONGRATULATE TIA.... |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 02:17 PM |
#26 |
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Great Work TIA! |
tex-wyo-dem |
Nov-17-04 03:00 PM |
#28 |
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I sit in awe of everyone and their great work on this |
notadmblnd |
Nov-17-04 04:12 PM |
#34 |
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Thanks TIA! The act of a true patriot. |
bleever |
Nov-17-04 03:10 PM |
#29 |
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Awesome work, TIA! I'll send to Kim Zetter, who has some integrity at |
Ojai Person |
Nov-17-04 04:38 PM |
#36 |
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A good link to use if sending this data... blogging it or posting it |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 04:53 PM |
#40 |
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UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 04:50 PM |
#39 |
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Here is a link to the exit poll site |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 04:59 PM |
#42 |
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EVEN MORE REVEALING OF BUSHFRAUD |
Shalom |
Nov-17-04 04:57 PM |
#41 |
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Excellent analysis |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 05:01 PM |
#43 |
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There's The Mandate |
CAcyclist |
Nov-18-04 02:54 PM |
#52 |
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NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA |
althecat |
Nov-17-04 06:15 PM |
#44 |
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Look At Red Shift Votes: Biggest Spikes are FL,PA,OH ! |
Shalom |
Nov-17-04 08:04 PM |
#45 |
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Kick |
uhhuh |
Nov-18-04 01:08 AM |
#47 |
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am kick |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-18-04 08:54 AM |
#48 |
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Great work! |
paritom |
Nov-18-04 09:22 AM |
#49 |
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kick |
madrigal |
Nov-18-04 01:44 PM |
#51 |
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kick |
SoCalDemGrrl |
Nov-18-04 03:28 PM |
#53 |
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Saturday Night Kick |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-20-04 07:45 PM |
#55 |
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Kick |
4democracy |
Nov-20-04 09:30 PM |
#56 |
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Truth, you are my hero |
mahina |
Nov-20-04 09:42 PM |
#57 |
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Keep kicked until it sinks in... |
TruthIsAll |
Nov-24-04 07:44 PM |
#58 |
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