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Reply #50: Some advice for communicating with boobies... [View All]

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #18
50. Some advice for communicating with boobies...
...and even with smart people who might be seeing things at 5 a.m. before they've had their second cup of java...

And I sent this to Scoop, too (to alastair@scoop.co.nz )

Subject: URGENT! Need better explanation on exit polls

Re:
Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions - Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

1. Urgent! Please include a simple explanation for boobies. Im not a boobie. Im pretty smart--but it took me a half hour to figure out what youre saying--that the graph shows the discrepancy between exit polls and Diebold results in all states. And Im still not 100% sure thats what youre saying. Back up--give a sentence or two to the basic controversy, as it stood at the time of Freemans report.

And you need to explain the word swing. At first brush, your text and graph seemed to merely be saying that Bush won--that votes "swung" toward Bush as the evening went on. Yeah, thats the problem. It's the word "swing." What does swing mean?

(We also use it for swing states and swing public opinion your way--meaning momentum, motion. You mean inexplicable discrepancy in Bushs favor--dont you? Not that votes swung toward Bush, but that the Diebold results inexplicably began to favor Bush, compared to the exit polls which favored Kerry.)

Here's your problematic intro sentence (which is not enough of an intro to the graph): The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing. (The "swing" of WHAT in favour of Bush?)

This is very, very, very, very, very, very important--so it needs to be clear to people.


2. You wrote: Dr Freeman's academic paper . He concludes that the reasons are unknown.

Why dont you use parts of his actual quote?

Suggested rewrite: He concludes: the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make an unavoidable hypothesis, and states that further investigation is warranted.

His full quote:

Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate.
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  -4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE TruthIsAll  Nov-17-04 12:24 AM   #0 
  - Looks much more realistic to me  Cronus Protagonist   Nov-17-04 12:37 AM   #1 
  - LOOK HERE  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 12:39 AM   #2 
  - Yup, I thought they looked much more realistic  Cronus Protagonist   Nov-17-04 01:01 AM   #3 
     - Plus there are more numbers aren't there TIA looks like 51 states to me  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:18 AM   #6 
  - Link to Final ELECTION MODEL Projection  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 10:38 AM   #22 
  - They kept NH in play all night.  Old and In the Way   Nov-17-04 01:04 AM   #4 
  - look at the numbers from electoral-vote.com for Nov 1 ...  imaginary girl   Nov-17-04 01:12 AM   #5 
  - the same site's numbers for Nov 2  unpossibles   Nov-17-04 01:19 AM   #7 
     - Actually he explained those numbers  imaginary girl   Nov-17-04 01:42 AM   #10 
  - The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4%  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:24 AM   #8 
  - Yup, the Minnesota numbers  Carolab   Nov-17-04 01:37 AM   #9 
  - Same data plus actual results and red shift  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:54 AM   #11 
  - Sorted by Redshift (the Freeman / Simon Analysis)  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:04 AM   #13 
  - Only 9 States shifted to Kerry - 42 Shifted against him  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:06 AM   #14 
  - As a graph... someone else can probably do a better version of this  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:12 AM   #15 
  - can somene make a graph including all the state names? (nt)  Middle Finger Bush   Nov-17-04 02:23 PM   #27 
  - Looking at these figures  Justathought   Nov-17-04 04:21 PM   #35 
  - What would be interesting  Nederland   Nov-17-04 08:25 PM   #46 
  - Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls.  TruthIsAll   Nov-20-04 12:04 PM   #54 
  - Note the 8% point swing in New York... you might have thought the NYT...  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:18 AM   #16 
  - THIS IS GREAT.. for comparison, is 00/96 data available?  BREMPRO   Nov-17-04 08:10 AM   #19 
     - I found a link to 2000 data.. it was a bit of a jungle though.  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:01 PM   #23 
        - Here it is - 2000 exit poll resources  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:02 PM   #24 
  - You have reversed your Delaware and DC Numbers TIA  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:02 AM   #12 
  - Sample sizes... This data is based on roughly half the total exit poll  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:27 AM   #17 
  - One wouldn't expect a big shift,  ewulf   Nov-17-04 03:15 PM   #30 
     - That said the samples in each state are much smaller  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:39 PM   #37 
        - Wrong spot n/t  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:49 PM   #38 
  - Instant News.... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions  althecat   Nov-17-04 03:51 AM   #18 
  - Some advice for communicating with boobies...  Peace Patriot   Nov-18-04 09:25 AM   #50 
  - It's in line w/ predictions made by electoral-vote.com  Bread and Circus   Nov-17-04 08:37 AM   #20 
  - Want a little help with that, B&C?  Eloriel   Nov-17-04 04:07 PM   #33 
  - ALTHECAT, THIS WAS THE FINAL ELECTION MODEL PROJECTION  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 08:54 AM   #21 
  - Is this your final projection TIA?  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:09 PM   #25 
     - To be precise, the state polling data was the BASIS for my projection  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 03:40 PM   #31 
     - Al, I'm sorry but I don't recall where I got the last 4 of the 51 states  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 03:48 PM   #32 
  - DEAR DUers - PLEASE CONGRATULATE TIA....  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:17 PM   #26 
  - Great Work TIA!  tex-wyo-dem   Nov-17-04 03:00 PM   #28 
  - I sit in awe of everyone and their great work on this  notadmblnd   Nov-17-04 04:12 PM   #34 
  - Thanks TIA! The act of a true patriot.  bleever   Nov-17-04 03:10 PM   #29 
  - Awesome work, TIA! I'll send to Kim Zetter, who has some integrity at  Ojai Person   Nov-17-04 04:38 PM   #36 
  - A good link to use if sending this data... blogging it or posting it  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:53 PM   #40 
  - UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:50 PM   #39 
  - Here is a link to the exit poll site  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:59 PM   #42 
  - EVEN MORE REVEALING OF BUSHFRAUD  Shalom   Nov-17-04 04:57 PM   #41 
  - Excellent analysis  althecat   Nov-17-04 05:01 PM   #43 
  - There's The Mandate  CAcyclist   Nov-18-04 02:54 PM   #52 
  - NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA  althecat   Nov-17-04 06:15 PM   #44 
  - Look At Red Shift Votes: Biggest Spikes are FL,PA,OH !  Shalom   Nov-17-04 08:04 PM   #45 
  - Kick  uhhuh   Nov-18-04 01:08 AM   #47 
  - am kick  TruthIsAll   Nov-18-04 08:54 AM   #48 
  - Great work!  paritom   Nov-18-04 09:22 AM   #49 
  - kick  madrigal   Nov-18-04 01:44 PM   #51 
     - kick  SoCalDemGrrl   Nov-18-04 03:28 PM   #53 
        - Saturday Night Kick  TruthIsAll   Nov-20-04 07:45 PM   #55 
           - Kick  4democracy   Nov-20-04 09:30 PM   #56 
  - Truth, you are my hero  mahina   Nov-20-04 09:42 PM   #57 
  - Keep kicked until it sinks in...  TruthIsAll   Nov-24-04 07:44 PM   #58 
 

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