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Reply #46: What would be interesting [View All]

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:25 PM
Response to Reply #15
46. What would be interesting
Is to do the same graph after adjusting for the fact that the 4pm exit poll samples contained 58% women. We know that oversampling women favors Kerry, but I bet your chart would still show a skew toward Bush even after you adjusted the sample M/F ratio.
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  -4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE TruthIsAll  Nov-17-04 12:24 AM   #0 
  - Looks much more realistic to me  Cronus Protagonist   Nov-17-04 12:37 AM   #1 
  - LOOK HERE  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 12:39 AM   #2 
  - Yup, I thought they looked much more realistic  Cronus Protagonist   Nov-17-04 01:01 AM   #3 
     - Plus there are more numbers aren't there TIA looks like 51 states to me  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:18 AM   #6 
  - Link to Final ELECTION MODEL Projection  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 10:38 AM   #22 
  - They kept NH in play all night.  Old and In the Way   Nov-17-04 01:04 AM   #4 
  - look at the numbers from electoral-vote.com for Nov 1 ...  imaginary girl   Nov-17-04 01:12 AM   #5 
  - the same site's numbers for Nov 2  unpossibles   Nov-17-04 01:19 AM   #7 
     - Actually he explained those numbers  imaginary girl   Nov-17-04 01:42 AM   #10 
  - The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4%  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:24 AM   #8 
  - Yup, the Minnesota numbers  Carolab   Nov-17-04 01:37 AM   #9 
  - Same data plus actual results and red shift  althecat   Nov-17-04 01:54 AM   #11 
  - Sorted by Redshift (the Freeman / Simon Analysis)  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:04 AM   #13 
  - Only 9 States shifted to Kerry - 42 Shifted against him  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:06 AM   #14 
  - As a graph... someone else can probably do a better version of this  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:12 AM   #15 
  - can somene make a graph including all the state names? (nt)  Middle Finger Bush   Nov-17-04 02:23 PM   #27 
  - Looking at these figures  Justathought   Nov-17-04 04:21 PM   #35 
  - What would be interesting  Nederland   Nov-17-04 08:25 PM   #46 
  - Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls.  TruthIsAll   Nov-20-04 12:04 PM   #54 
  - Note the 8% point swing in New York... you might have thought the NYT...  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:18 AM   #16 
  - THIS IS GREAT.. for comparison, is 00/96 data available?  BREMPRO   Nov-17-04 08:10 AM   #19 
     - I found a link to 2000 data.. it was a bit of a jungle though.  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:01 PM   #23 
        - Here it is - 2000 exit poll resources  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:02 PM   #24 
  - You have reversed your Delaware and DC Numbers TIA  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:02 AM   #12 
  - Sample sizes... This data is based on roughly half the total exit poll  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:27 AM   #17 
  - One wouldn't expect a big shift,  ewulf   Nov-17-04 03:15 PM   #30 
     - That said the samples in each state are much smaller  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:39 PM   #37 
        - Wrong spot n/t  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:49 PM   #38 
  - Instant News.... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions  althecat   Nov-17-04 03:51 AM   #18 
  - Some advice for communicating with boobies...  Peace Patriot   Nov-18-04 09:25 AM   #50 
  - It's in line w/ predictions made by electoral-vote.com  Bread and Circus   Nov-17-04 08:37 AM   #20 
  - Want a little help with that, B&C?  Eloriel   Nov-17-04 04:07 PM   #33 
  - ALTHECAT, THIS WAS THE FINAL ELECTION MODEL PROJECTION  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 08:54 AM   #21 
  - Is this your final projection TIA?  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:09 PM   #25 
     - To be precise, the state polling data was the BASIS for my projection  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 03:40 PM   #31 
     - Al, I'm sorry but I don't recall where I got the last 4 of the 51 states  TruthIsAll   Nov-17-04 03:48 PM   #32 
  - DEAR DUers - PLEASE CONGRATULATE TIA....  althecat   Nov-17-04 02:17 PM   #26 
  - Great Work TIA!  tex-wyo-dem   Nov-17-04 03:00 PM   #28 
  - I sit in awe of everyone and their great work on this  notadmblnd   Nov-17-04 04:12 PM   #34 
  - Thanks TIA! The act of a true patriot.  bleever   Nov-17-04 03:10 PM   #29 
  - Awesome work, TIA! I'll send to Kim Zetter, who has some integrity at  Ojai Person   Nov-17-04 04:38 PM   #36 
  - A good link to use if sending this data... blogging it or posting it  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:53 PM   #40 
  - UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:50 PM   #39 
  - Here is a link to the exit poll site  althecat   Nov-17-04 04:59 PM   #42 
  - EVEN MORE REVEALING OF BUSHFRAUD  Shalom   Nov-17-04 04:57 PM   #41 
  - Excellent analysis  althecat   Nov-17-04 05:01 PM   #43 
  - There's The Mandate  CAcyclist   Nov-18-04 02:54 PM   #52 
  - NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA  althecat   Nov-17-04 06:15 PM   #44 
  - Look At Red Shift Votes: Biggest Spikes are FL,PA,OH !  Shalom   Nov-17-04 08:04 PM   #45 
  - Kick  uhhuh   Nov-18-04 01:08 AM   #47 
  - am kick  TruthIsAll   Nov-18-04 08:54 AM   #48 
  - Great work!  paritom   Nov-18-04 09:22 AM   #49 
  - kick  madrigal   Nov-18-04 01:44 PM   #51 
     - kick  SoCalDemGrrl   Nov-18-04 03:28 PM   #53 
        - Saturday Night Kick  TruthIsAll   Nov-20-04 07:45 PM   #55 
           - Kick  4democracy   Nov-20-04 09:30 PM   #56 
  - Truth, you are my hero  mahina   Nov-20-04 09:42 PM   #57 
  - Keep kicked until it sinks in...  TruthIsAll   Nov-24-04 07:44 PM   #58 
 

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