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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-11 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. OK
I'm sorry that you live in a place without paper ballots -- and I'm very sorry that you're unwell.

The exit poll analysts didn't create dead voters in order to make anything add up. However, TIA made a big deal about how the weighted 2004 exit poll results showed more people having voted for Bush in 2000 than there actually could have been. So I pointed out to TIA that a lot of survey evidence -- including one study that interviewed the same people in 2000 and in 2004 -- shows that it is common for people to misremember, or at least misreport, having voted for the incumbent. (An extreme example: Bush-Dukakis was actually pretty close in the popular vote, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the General Social Survey five years later, where Bush "beat" Dukakis by 41 points.) If TIA had a sensible response, I would be happy to consider it. Frankly, I think I'm a heck of a lot less dogmatic than he is.
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  -Charnin: M Crispin Miller & Jonathan Simon respond to NYT Nate Silver re WI, plus Lehto & Mitteldorf tiptoe  Apr-14-11 02:28 PM   #0 
  - Hmmm. I don't know how many posts I read that said, "If it's okay with Nate, it's okay with me"  FiveGoodMen   Apr-14-11 02:32 PM   #1 
  - I'm mainly a DU person---on DU, quite a few. n/t  vaberella   Apr-15-11 06:35 AM   #4 
  - Their minds are made up, so Simon and Miller should not subject them to facts.  joentokyo   Apr-14-11 10:19 PM   #2 
  - 1988-2008 True Vote Model -- state & national  tiptoe   Apr-14-11 10:47 PM   #3 
  - Really good thread. Definitely worthwhile in the GDP section. n/t  vaberella   Apr-15-11 06:36 AM   #5 
  - k&r  avaistheone1   Apr-15-11 02:56 PM   #6 
  - kick  democracy1st   Apr-16-11 05:02 AM   #7 
  - Thank you, Richard Charnin.  emcguffie   Apr-16-11 04:00 PM   #8 
     - An exit poll is as questionable as a computer generated election result.  Wilms   Apr-16-11 04:40 PM   #9 
     - Sorry, I believe exit polls are okay until they change the results.  emcguffie   Apr-21-11 12:11 PM   #11 
        - I "believe" they were correct prior to fudging, too.  Wilms   Apr-21-11 05:38 PM   #14 
           - I am honestly not sure I understand what you are saying.  emcguffie   Apr-22-11 07:42 PM   #15 
              - Hey, I'm not sufficiently informed about the whole exit poll debate.  Wilms   Apr-22-11 08:08 PM   #16 
     - to be honest, pretty useless  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-16-11 04:46 PM   #10 
        - I believe it too.  emcguffie   Apr-21-11 12:19 PM   #12 
           - OK  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-21-11 04:21 PM   #13 

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