You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #58: cool analysis [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-11 06:03 AM
Response to Reply #56
58. cool analysis
I have a few caveats. The counties where Falk did worst relative to Doyle tend to be counties with not many voters. It's a mistake to fixate just on the largest counties, but it's also a mistake to focus on counties that take up a lot of space on the map but don't have much impact on the results. (I'm not saying that the blogger necessarily made that mistake, but the maps do tend to suck one in.)

Also, Falk actually did underperform more in Dane than in Milwaukee -- about a 9-point gap on the margin, vs. 5.

What I see at the reporting unit level is that the gap tends to be largest in reporting units (wards and ward combos) that are relatively balanced -- where Doyle got around 60% of the vote. Statewide, and especially in Dane and Milwaukee, Falk generally does fine in the most Democratic units, but as Doyle's vote share drops into the 40%-60% range, Falk's drops farther. (Statewide, there are a bunch of those "middling" units where Falk actually outperformed Doyle -- but in Dane and Milwaukee, almost none. I'm sure that some other counties are like Dane and Milwaukee in that respect; a media-market analysis may be spot on.) So, the "swing" voters seem to have been disproportionately in middling areas.

Kloppenburg vs. Barrett is a very different story. There, Kloppenburg underperforms most in most Democratic precincts of Milwaukee -- and that probably has a lot to do with the Supreme Court contest being nonpartisan on the ballot, as you pointed out.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
  -Okay whats the deal in Wisconsin? Ellipsis  Apr-07-11 11:03 PM   #0 
  - Sure seems compromised.  Wilms   Apr-07-11 11:38 PM   #1 
  - Are they really all DRE's with thermal tape readers?  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:16 AM   #12 
     - Not all DRE. They're there for accessibility. Otherwise op scan.  Wilms   Apr-08-11 08:44 AM   #15 
        - He was a good sport, kinda bummed searched for his name and he wasn't there.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 04:21 PM   #16 
        - Aint no difference tween a DRE and an opscan, really. they are both computers,  robinlynne   May-19-11 01:31 PM   #65 
           - Thanks. I think I got it. n/t  Wilms   May-21-11 09:31 AM   #66 
  - This Vote Snafu Aside  Kalun D   Apr-07-11 11:43 PM   #2 
  - Apparently it is a 50/50 PURPLE state. n/t  Tx4obama   Apr-07-11 11:45 PM   #4 
  - Judges run as Independents, they have no party affilation...  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:38 AM   #7 
  - Here's the run down  Tx4obama   Apr-07-11 11:44 PM   #3 
  - and seeing as how this thread is still active,  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:23 AM   #45 
  - Suspect all ya want.  karnac   Apr-08-11 12:07 AM   #5 
  - I talked to geek once and he mentioned some old board he...  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:45 AM   #8 
  - I 'm not suspecting, I'm trouble shooting. It should be done, while it's fresh.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:53 AM   #9 
  - but if you  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:50 AM   #46 
  - We'll find it ...or maybe you will. Hah  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:32 PM   #48 
  - Then hand counted paper ballots with 3 watchers would work a lot better, yes?  robinlynne   May-05-11 11:30 PM   #63 
  - How is it possible that votes were shown to have been 100% in from  JDPriestly   Apr-08-11 12:17 AM   #6 
  - There are 191 precincts as I understand.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:05 AM   #10 
  - looks like your looking for stats  karnac   Apr-08-11 01:08 AM   #11 
  - The coyote has some data.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:21 AM   #13 
  - Link to County Gov PDF. Over 18,000 votes cast in Waukesha County for ONLY Supreme Court  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:28 AM   #14 
  - Heard a speech from Electronic Frontier Foundation guy  catrose   Apr-09-11 04:54 PM   #17 
  - Hrdware in Waukesha County  Ellipsis   Apr-09-11 07:55 PM   #18 
  - not sure where you're going with this  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-09-11 09:58 PM   #19 
     - I haven't a clue... I'm just bringing some content together...  Ellipsis   Apr-09-11 10:29 PM   #20 
     - that's fair  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-09-11 11:11 PM   #21 
        - "...obviously it was [indeed] a very close election..."  Wilms   Apr-10-11 11:43 AM   #27 
           - depends...  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-10-11 01:50 PM   #29 
     - Have to agree.  Wilms   Apr-10-11 11:40 AM   #26 
  - Here's an interesting Factoid...or fiction, who knows?  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:11 AM   #22 
  - Debunked  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:54 AM   #23 
  - self delete n/t  Melissa G   Apr-14-11 12:27 PM   #36 
  - Waukesha County Clerk Embroiled in Controversy for Years  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:56 AM   #24 
  - The Milwaukee County DA & GAB to hold News conference on, separate, unrelated to "the 14000" story  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 10:00 AM   #31 
  - Railroad executive charged with campaign law violations (WISCONSIN)  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 01:18 PM   #32 
  - And, in Wisconsin, the plot thickens...  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 03:01 PM   #33 
  - Kathys special software  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:51 PM   #51 
  - Prosser outperformed other Republican candidates in Waukesha County in recent history  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 11:51 AM   #28 
  - Hurtsti Hack  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 05:43 PM   #30 
  - Hinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-12-11 07:18 AM   #34 
  - Stinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-12-11 03:01 PM   #35 
     - Pinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-22-11 08:46 PM   #38 
        - I so did not see that coming... n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-23-11 11:53 AM   #39 
  - (Wis.) Deal reached for hand recount in 31 counties for Kloppenburg Prosser race.  Ellipsis   Apr-21-11 08:10 PM   #37 
  - BRADBLOGS's Excellent compendium on Waukesha County and the recount... a must read  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 12:45 PM   #40 
  - Marathon County, only county in the state that uses ES&S M100 opscans  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 01:05 PM   #41 
  - Sorry, Columbus uses all 100's ..Portage has one, Manitowoc a couple, Douglas has several...  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 02:24 PM   #42 
  - Wisconsin GAB Recount Daily Update (Excel Spreadsheet) link  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 12:21 AM   #43 
  - I wonder why  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:11 AM   #44 
     - darn  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 08:15 AM   #47 
        - Here is GAB's explanation  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:45 PM   #49 
           - Would you explain specifically  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-30-11 07:15 AM   #52 
              - The bulk of his stuff is based off exit polling data.  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 03:25 PM   #53 
                 - I don't think TIA was tombstoned for 'fighting back'  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-30-11 04:16 PM   #54 
                    - People tend to forget that the Supreme court race in Wisconsin doesn't list political affiliation.  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 05:03 PM   #55 
                       - Falk vs Doyle Imagery and speculation  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 06:23 PM   #56 
                       - cool analysis  OnTheOtherHand   May-02-11 06:03 AM   #58 
                          - FYI - Population density, income, retirees, farm forest housing visuals  Ellipsis   May-02-11 03:18 PM   #59 
                          - dammit, that gave me a sick idea  OnTheOtherHand   May-02-11 04:27 PM   #60 
                          - FWIW - Lower Falk votes in Dane Co  eowyn_of_rohan   May-03-11 07:05 AM   #61 
                       - I made a scatterplot  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-30-11 07:20 PM   #57 
  - Voting Equipment in use by Wisconsin Municipality  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:49 PM   #50 
  - kicking this again  Lefta Dissenter   May-05-11 10:27 AM   #62 
  - I suspect a few of those may have been honest blunders, but  gkhouston   May-09-11 01:11 PM   #64 
  - Election Shell Game  dael   May-22-11 12:46 AM   #67 
  - Rachel...she said hinky. Heh. (video enclosed) "It was human error."  Ellipsis   Oct-13-11 08:15 PM   #68 
     - No really it was human error... honest... really, I'm not kidding.  Ellipsis   Oct-13-11 09:23 PM   #69 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC