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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. depends...
If the canvassed margin of victory ends up being around 0.5%, then in principle a ballot-level audit of 1000 individual ballots could give you about a 90% "confidence" level (see Stark's S4RLA paper, Table 3) -- probably somewhat larger, allowing for some marking errors. But I doubt that a ballot-level audit is feasible in Wisconsin (unless someone could do a Humboldt-style rescan of all the ballots).

Wisconsin has something like 3500 reporting units, a bunch of which reported over 2,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. (I say "a bunch" because it would take a bit of work to get the data file into a format where I could say exactly....) So, on the most conservative assumptions, probably just one or two miscounts could account for the apparent margin. Not much reason not to go for a full recount, on those assumptions. I'm curious what one could get by with if willing to use a within-precinct miscount assumption, although at this point I don't think enough data are available to say. One could do pretty well with maybe a 20% sample, depending on how it was drawn.
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  -Okay whats the deal in Wisconsin? Ellipsis  Apr-07-11 11:03 PM   #0 
  - Sure seems compromised.  Wilms   Apr-07-11 11:38 PM   #1 
  - Are they really all DRE's with thermal tape readers?  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:16 AM   #12 
     - Not all DRE. They're there for accessibility. Otherwise op scan.  Wilms   Apr-08-11 08:44 AM   #15 
        - He was a good sport, kinda bummed searched for his name and he wasn't there.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 04:21 PM   #16 
        - Aint no difference tween a DRE and an opscan, really. they are both computers,  robinlynne   May-19-11 01:31 PM   #65 
           - Thanks. I think I got it. n/t  Wilms   May-21-11 09:31 AM   #66 
  - This Vote Snafu Aside  Kalun D   Apr-07-11 11:43 PM   #2 
  - Apparently it is a 50/50 PURPLE state. n/t  Tx4obama   Apr-07-11 11:45 PM   #4 
  - Judges run as Independents, they have no party affilation...  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:38 AM   #7 
  - Here's the run down  Tx4obama   Apr-07-11 11:44 PM   #3 
  - and seeing as how this thread is still active,  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:23 AM   #45 
  - Suspect all ya want.  karnac   Apr-08-11 12:07 AM   #5 
  - I talked to geek once and he mentioned some old board he...  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:45 AM   #8 
  - I 'm not suspecting, I'm trouble shooting. It should be done, while it's fresh.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 12:53 AM   #9 
  - but if you  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:50 AM   #46 
  - We'll find it ...or maybe you will. Hah  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:32 PM   #48 
  - Then hand counted paper ballots with 3 watchers would work a lot better, yes?  robinlynne   May-05-11 11:30 PM   #63 
  - How is it possible that votes were shown to have been 100% in from  JDPriestly   Apr-08-11 12:17 AM   #6 
  - There are 191 precincts as I understand.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:05 AM   #10 
  - looks like your looking for stats  karnac   Apr-08-11 01:08 AM   #11 
  - The coyote has some data.  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:21 AM   #13 
  - Link to County Gov PDF. Over 18,000 votes cast in Waukesha County for ONLY Supreme Court  Ellipsis   Apr-08-11 01:28 AM   #14 
  - Heard a speech from Electronic Frontier Foundation guy  catrose   Apr-09-11 04:54 PM   #17 
  - Hrdware in Waukesha County  Ellipsis   Apr-09-11 07:55 PM   #18 
  - not sure where you're going with this  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-09-11 09:58 PM   #19 
     - I haven't a clue... I'm just bringing some content together...  Ellipsis   Apr-09-11 10:29 PM   #20 
     - that's fair  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-09-11 11:11 PM   #21 
        - "...obviously it was [indeed] a very close election..."  Wilms   Apr-10-11 11:43 AM   #27 
           - depends...  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-10-11 01:50 PM   #29 
     - Have to agree.  Wilms   Apr-10-11 11:40 AM   #26 
  - Here's an interesting Factoid...or fiction, who knows?  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:11 AM   #22 
  - Debunked  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:54 AM   #23 
  - self delete n/t  Melissa G   Apr-14-11 12:27 PM   #36 
  - Waukesha County Clerk Embroiled in Controversy for Years  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 12:56 AM   #24 
  - The Milwaukee County DA & GAB to hold News conference on, separate, unrelated to "the 14000" story  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 10:00 AM   #31 
  - Railroad executive charged with campaign law violations (WISCONSIN)  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 01:18 PM   #32 
  - And, in Wisconsin, the plot thickens...  Ellipsis   Apr-11-11 03:01 PM   #33 
  - Kathys special software  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:51 PM   #51 
  - Prosser outperformed other Republican candidates in Waukesha County in recent history  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 11:51 AM   #28 
  - Hurtsti Hack  Ellipsis   Apr-10-11 05:43 PM   #30 
  - Hinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-12-11 07:18 AM   #34 
  - Stinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-12-11 03:01 PM   #35 
     - Pinky!  Ellipsis   Apr-22-11 08:46 PM   #38 
        - I so did not see that coming... n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-23-11 11:53 AM   #39 
  - (Wis.) Deal reached for hand recount in 31 counties for Kloppenburg Prosser race.  Ellipsis   Apr-21-11 08:10 PM   #37 
  - BRADBLOGS's Excellent compendium on Waukesha County and the recount... a must read  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 12:45 PM   #40 
  - Marathon County, only county in the state that uses ES&S M100 opscans  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 01:05 PM   #41 
  - Sorry, Columbus uses all 100's ..Portage has one, Manitowoc a couple, Douglas has several...  Ellipsis   Apr-23-11 02:24 PM   #42 
  - Wisconsin GAB Recount Daily Update (Excel Spreadsheet) link  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 12:21 AM   #43 
  - I wonder why  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 07:11 AM   #44 
     - darn  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-29-11 08:15 AM   #47 
        - Here is GAB's explanation  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:45 PM   #49 
           - Would you explain specifically  Lefta Dissenter   Apr-30-11 07:15 AM   #52 
              - The bulk of his stuff is based off exit polling data.  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 03:25 PM   #53 
                 - I don't think TIA was tombstoned for 'fighting back'  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-30-11 04:16 PM   #54 
                    - People tend to forget that the Supreme court race in Wisconsin doesn't list political affiliation.  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 05:03 PM   #55 
                       - Falk vs Doyle Imagery and speculation  Ellipsis   Apr-30-11 06:23 PM   #56 
                       - cool analysis  OnTheOtherHand   May-02-11 06:03 AM   #58 
                          - FYI - Population density, income, retirees, farm forest housing visuals  Ellipsis   May-02-11 03:18 PM   #59 
                          - dammit, that gave me a sick idea  OnTheOtherHand   May-02-11 04:27 PM   #60 
                          - FWIW - Lower Falk votes in Dane Co  eowyn_of_rohan   May-03-11 07:05 AM   #61 
                       - I made a scatterplot  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-30-11 07:20 PM   #57 
  - Voting Equipment in use by Wisconsin Municipality  Ellipsis   Apr-29-11 01:49 PM   #50 
  - kicking this again  Lefta Dissenter   May-05-11 10:27 AM   #62 
  - I suspect a few of those may have been honest blunders, but  gkhouston   May-09-11 01:11 PM   #64 
  - Election Shell Game  dael   May-22-11 12:46 AM   #67 
  - Rachel...she said hinky. Heh. (video enclosed) "It was human error."  Ellipsis   Oct-13-11 08:15 PM   #68 
     - No really it was human error... honest... really, I'm not kidding.  Ellipsis   Oct-13-11 09:23 PM   #69 

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