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Reply #20: You are not very well informed. Try this: [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-10 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. You are not very well informed. Try this:
3% of 100 scanners = 3 scanners. The chances of finding 1 bad scanner in such an audit using a simple random sample would be only 3%. If 1 bad scanner could change the outcome of an election, as with a very close race like the one in SD 60, there would only be a 3% chance of finding it with a 3% audit. There would very likely be no evidence on which to base expanding the audit to a full recount, even if the wrong winner was declared.

In the average NYS Senate district, there might be about 130 scanners. (The exact number depends on how the scanners are allocated amongst the Election Districts.) The chance that a 3% audit of 4 scanners would find one bad scanner out of 130 would be slightly less than 3.1%.

To get to a 90% chance of detecting fraud or error due to 1 bad scanner, you'd need to audit 117 out of 130. Might as well go for the full hand count and be 100% sure who won this eace with the leadership of the whole State Senate at stake. Otherwise, we'd be much better off with lever voting machines.
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