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Reply #20: You are not very well informed. Try this: [View All]

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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-10 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. You are not very well informed. Try this:
3% of 100 scanners = 3 scanners. The chances of finding 1 bad scanner in such an audit using a simple random sample would be only 3%. If 1 bad scanner could change the outcome of an election, as with a very close race like the one in SD 60, there would only be a 3% chance of finding it with a 3% audit. There would very likely be no evidence on which to base expanding the audit to a full recount, even if the wrong winner was declared.

In the average NYS Senate district, there might be about 130 scanners. (The exact number depends on how the scanners are allocated amongst the Election Districts.) The chance that a 3% audit of 4 scanners would find one bad scanner out of 130 would be slightly less than 3.1%.

To get to a 90% chance of detecting fraud or error due to 1 bad scanner, you'd need to audit 117 out of 130. Might as well go for the full hand count and be 100% sure who won this eace with the leadership of the whole State Senate at stake. Otherwise, we'd be much better off with lever voting machines.
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  -ERIE COUNTY NY: The problem wasn't the memory cards -- just the software that READS them! Bill Bored  Nov-18-10 12:09 AM   #0 
  - I live in Buffalo, looks like voting was a waste of my time, soon NY will go RED  Dragonfli   Nov-18-10 10:53 AM   #1 
  - Voting is not a waste of time. There's a chance our votes may be counted as cast - just no proof. nt  Bill Bored   Nov-18-10 01:49 PM   #3 
  - Without proof, money gets to win. They are only kept honest by proof  Dragonfli   Nov-18-10 02:05 PM   #4 
     - Don't get me wrong. Proof is good! LOVE THE PROOF! But if you don't vote...  Bill Bored   Nov-19-10 12:31 AM   #8 
  - Paranoid much?  TheWraith   Nov-18-10 02:18 PM   #5 
  - I'm a programmer, is knowledge paranoia? I know what can be done with the software.  Dragonfli   Nov-18-10 07:20 PM   #7 
  - Thanks, but I've been working with computers for about 20 years now.  TheWraith   Nov-19-10 03:27 AM   #11 
     - Silly assumption: Anything wrong in the software count will show up in the 3% canvass. nt  Bill Bored   Nov-20-10 12:42 AM   #13 
     - Silly assumption: that 2 plus 2 equals purple.  TheWraith   Nov-21-10 02:21 AM   #15 
        - The effects of cluster sampling would invalidate what I think you're trying to say.  Bill Bored   Nov-21-10 09:25 PM   #21 
     - its about Public Confidence in Outcome of Election  WillYourVoteBCounted   Nov-20-10 08:20 PM   #14 
  - Paranoid NOT! "Paper ballots for recounts and auditing" = bait and switch!  Bill Bored   Nov-19-10 12:47 AM   #9 
     - Okay, how much knowledge do you have about statistics and the Board of Elections?  TheWraith   Nov-19-10 03:25 AM   #10 
        - Thanks for being a poll watcher but the 3% audit is bullshit. Read and learn:  Bill Bored   Nov-20-10 12:37 AM   #12 
           - Your link is irrelevant.  TheWraith   Nov-21-10 02:28 AM   #16 
              - 3% Audits are ok  BeFree   Nov-21-10 09:42 AM   #17 
              - that isn't "what the experts all say" at all  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-10 07:57 PM   #19 
                 - well  BeFree   Nov-21-10 09:32 PM   #22 
                    - A 10% audit of each and every machine...  Bill Bored   Nov-21-10 09:44 PM   #24 
                    - 90% confidence  BeFree   Nov-21-10 10:18 PM   #25 
                       - Your math is not right for all elections because 10% is not right for all elections.  Bill Bored   Nov-21-10 11:34 PM   #26 
                          - well Bill  BeFree   Nov-22-10 12:24 PM   #28 
                             - It's not simple and not doable. If it were, someone would do it.  Bill Bored   Nov-23-10 12:42 AM   #31 
                    - OK, now I know what you're talking about  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-22-10 07:00 AM   #27 
              - actually, think about this some more  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-21-10 07:53 PM   #18 
              - You are not very well informed. Try this:  Bill Bored   Nov-21-10 09:13 PM   #20 
              - You're the one who clearly doesn't understand how a 3% audit works.  TheWraith   Nov-22-10 10:18 PM   #29 
                 - Dude, sorry to break this news to you but NY Election Law says to audit 3% of SCANNERS! nt  Bill Bored   Nov-23-10 12:28 AM   #30 
                    - Crickets. nt  Bill Bored   Nov-27-10 01:28 AM   #32 
                    - definitely NY needs better audits if using computer vote counting  WillYourVoteBCounted   Nov-27-10 07:30 AM   #33 
                       - As I understand it, NC does full hand counts for the closest races.  Bill Bored   Nov-27-10 10:17 PM   #34 
                          - there's an IF in here  WillYourVoteBCounted   Nov-28-10 09:35 PM   #35 
                             - It seems hard to get if it relies on finding problems in a 3% sample.  Bill Bored   Nov-29-10 02:09 AM   #36 
              - More links (this time from the American Statistical Association):  Bill Bored   Nov-21-10 09:34 PM   #23 
  - low turnout a really bad idea. Consider Bell, California  WillYourVoteBCounted   Nov-18-10 03:03 PM   #6 
  - oh oh!  WillYourVoteBCounted   Nov-18-10 11:55 AM   #2 

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