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Reply #10: Okay, how much knowledge do you have about statistics and the Board of Elections? [View All]

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TheWraith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-10 04:25 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Okay, how much knowledge do you have about statistics and the Board of Elections?
Edited on Fri Nov-19-10 04:26 AM by TheWraith
Because I feel I should mention that I was a poll watcher on election night, as well as being neck deep in the Wyoming County Board of Elections, watching and participating in the entire thing, and that I've also spent many hours talking with state BOE people and running the numbers on various elections. I know what I'm talking about.

Statistically speaking, recounting 3% of the vote should be plenty to give you an accurate picture of whether or not the total count is accurate, at least in larger races, say 30k votes and up. If you have a 3% recount that doesn't vary in any statistically significant way from the documented count, recounting every single ballot isn't likely to give you one either. That's the entire point of a 3% recount: to verify the machine count without having to take months to go through every single ballot.

Look, in modern elections, there is going to be NO 100% guaranteed solution that is also realistic. As much as I love and miss our old mechanical voting machines, those produced absolutely NO paper trail, so you had only to trust in the machines that they were accurate. The only solution where machinery or computers don't come into the picture at all is if you hand-count every ballot, which is completely impractical in any election larger than School Board.
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