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9/26 House & Senate RV/LV Polls, Projections, Pollsters, Probabilties and Election Fraud (TIA) [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-28-10 03:48 PM
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9/26 House & Senate RV/LV Polls, Projections, Pollsters, Probabilties and Election Fraud (TIA)
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Edited on Tue Sep-28-10 04:35 PM by tiptoe
2010 Midterm House & Senate Forecast Model: RV/LV Polls, Undecided Voters & Election Fraudbit.ly/dsmBIl/b]

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.ht...

Sept. 26, 2010

Registered and Likely Voter Projections

The House and Senate forecast models provide Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) projections. The assumption is that the election is held today. Pre-election polls all interview registered voters; likely voters are a sub-sample. They are not separate polls. Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the LV sub-sample (see the LVCM model below).

LV polls exclude millions of registered voters who actually voteand most of them are Democrats. In addition, millions of votes are cast but never counted in every electionand most of them are Democratic as well. The good news is that proliferation of electronic voting has reduced the uncounted vote rate. The bad news is that votes can be switched, stuffed or dropped at the voting machine and/or the central tabulator where they are counted.

Since 2000, the LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote-count shares and final exit polls (which are "forced" to match the recorded vote). The RV poll projections closely matched the unadjusted-state and preliminary-national exit polls. In the weeks prior to the election, the MSM phases out RV polls and replaces them with LV polls that lowball projected Democratic shares. In so doing, they lay the foundation for matching their final predictions to a fraudulent recorded vote-count.

Midterm Forecast
(Probability of GOP majority)
Senate Seats
200 simulated election trials

LV polls:
RV polls:
Dem
50.5
52.7


Repub
47.5
45.3

(5%)
(0%)


House Seats
LV polls:
RV polls:
198
207


237
228
(100%)
(91%)

The media/pollster drumbeat of a horse race is largely based on LV polls. The narrative conditions the public to expect a recorded vote which in fact understates the True Democratic share. The pollsters discount the RV sample for a fraud component, fully expecting that the LV projections will be a close match to the recorded vote but they never mention the F-word. They know that votes are miscounted in every election. And so their final LV-based polling forecasts are usually quite accurate. Pollsters are paid to predict the recorded votenot the True Vote.

The 2010 midterms are different from the last four elections in that a low Democratic voter turnout is expected. Election fraud will very likely cost the Democrats a few seats in the House and Senate. And the number will be close to the difference between the RV and LV samples. But there may not be RV samples for us to calculate the difference on Election Day. And once again, pollsters will be complemented on how closely their final LV predictions matched the (recorded) vote.

For the Senate races, polling websites generally display only LV polls. CNN/Time provides both RV and LV samples, but only the LVs are listed at realclearpolitics.com. The Senate RV forecast model is therefore a mix of RV and LV polls. The Democrats lead the RV 12-poll average by 47.841.1%. The GOP leads the LV 25-poll average by a much bigger margin:51.638.6%. Without a full corresponding RV poll for every LV sample, a comparable analysis is difficult.

In the House, Generic polls have had a more equitable mix of RV and LV samples. But expect a shift to virtually all LV samples as Election Day approaches. The GOP leads the average of 55 LV polls by 45.4-38.5%. For the 83 RV polls the margin is much lower:45.2-43.7%. The majority of polls are Rasmussen LVs and Gallup RVs.

The Fraud Component

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls underestimated voter turnout and yet closely matched impossible final exit polls and fraudulent recorded vote counts. Projections based on final pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) were a close match to the unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote.

Pre-election Model:
Recorded vote share = LV poll projection = RV poll projection + Fraud component

Post-election Model:
Recorded vote share = Final Exit Poll = Unadjusted exit poll + Fraud component


Applying the formula to the latest Senate and House Generic Polls:

Projected GOP Senate Vote Share:

Share = 52.4 = 50.5 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 1.9% (3.8% margin).

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 2 seats (Table 5).

Projected GOP House Vote Share:
Share = 54.1= 52.0 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 2.1% (4.2% margin)

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 4 seats (Table 7).


The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters, of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered votersfirst-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.

Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates yes to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers yes to all seven.bit.ly/a8UYRb

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Election Fraud

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see2004FinalPre-electionPolls).bit.ly/d2yEQhbit.ly/claROebit.ly/aW4gYX

Final exit polls are always "forced" to match the recorded vote count, (i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote count is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectively). In the 2004 Final NEP (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (13047 respondents). For 2008, the NEP media consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed results of fifty-one unadjusted-state and three un-forced preliminary-national exit polls.bit.ly/bAc6OKbit.ly/amsJiBbit.ly/bRhlz4bit.ly/diYEJ5bit.ly/a2j7xlbit.ly/bsL7lkbit.ly/dfIPTI

Once again, as in every election cycle, the media avoids the real issues. Martha Coakley won the hand-counts in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedys seat but lost to Scott Brown; Vic Rawl won the absentee vote but lost to unknown Alvin Greene in the South Carolina Democratic Senate primary; Mike Castle won the absentee ballots but lost to Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware GOP Senate primary. But there has not been a peep about any of this in the mainstream media. Apparently, we must just accept the conventional wisdom that even though the votes have vanished in cyberspace and can never be verified, they were not tampered with. The media lockdown is not limited to past stolen elections. The MSM prepares us for election fraud by listing final pre-election LV polls and ignoring RV polls.




Table 1
2010 Midterms: Senate and House Forecast Model

Senate Forecast Simulation

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/se... bit.ly/azDXlw

26-Sep
CurrentSeats

Polls
12
25
37
Type
RV
LV
RV&LV

Simulation Forecast
37
RV&LV
Net Gain
Win Prob


25
LV
Net Gain
Win Prob
Dem
57

Avg % Vote
47.8
38.6
41.6

Seats
52.7
-
100.0%

50.5
-
85.5%
GOP
41

Share
41.1
51.6
48.2


45.3
4.3
0.0%

47.5
6.5
14.5%
Ind
2

Undec
11.1
9.8
10.2


2
-
-

2
-
-
ASSUMPTIONS
Fraud
MoE
UVA

0.0%
4.0%
50.0%

Vote-share deviation to GOP
Poll margin of error
Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP


Projection (table)
RV&LV
Seats

Flip to
Lean
Safe
Tossup

Dem
54

1
4
7
7

GOP
44

4
3
16
0





NOTES:
Average of a 200 election trial simulation
Probability of winning 50 senate seat majority
Senate Simulation with Weighted Averages

26-Sep
tossup*
Type
Poll Share %
GOP %
Projection %
(after UVA)
GOP %
GOP
Within





AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA

CO
CT
DE
FL
GA

HI
IA
ID
IL
IN

KS
KY
LA
MD
MO

NC
ND
NH
NV
NY

NY
OH
OK
OR
PA

SC
SD
UT
WA
VT

WI
WV
Seat
Held
By

R
R
D
R
D

D*
D
D
R
R

D
R
R
D*
D

R
R
R
D
R*

R
D
R*
D*
D

D
R
R
D
D*

R
R
R
D
D

D
D*

OnlyLV
RV&LV









RV

RV
RV









RV


RV




RV
RV

RV
RV


RV




RV


RV
Dem
42.5
44.0


42
30
34
31
51

47
52
59
34
34

68
35
27
41
29

23
46
33
55
41

36
25
44
42
57

63
42
24
54
45

30
30
25
50
64

48
47
GOP
47.2
45.1


48
59
54
53
43

44
45
34
36
52

20
55
64
44
50

67
46
54
39
54

56
69
49
34
31

30
49
67
37
45

70
70
52
44
29

46
45
Unsure
10.3
10.8


10
11
12
16
6

9
3
7
30
14

12
10
9
15
21

10
8
13
6
5

8
6
7
24
12

7
9
9
9
10

0
0
23
6
7

6
8
Margin
4.7
1.1


6
29
20
22
(8)

(3)
(7)
(25)
2
18

(48)
20
37
3
21

44
0
21
(16)
13

20
44
5
(8)
(26)

(33)
7
43
(17)
0

40
40
27
(6)
(35)

(2)
(2)
Dem
47.6
49.5


47.0
35.5
40.0
39.0
54.0

51.5
53.5
62.5
49.0
41.0

74.0
40.0
31.5
48.5
39.5

28.0
50.0
39.5
58.0
43.5

40.0
28.0
47.5
54.0
63.0

66.5
46.5
28.5
58.5
50.0

30.0
30.0
36.5
53.0
67.5

51.0
51.0
GOP
52.4
50.5


53.0
64.5
60.0
61.0
46.0

48.5
46.5
37.5
51.0
59.0

26.0
60.0
68.5
51.5
60.5

72.0
50.0
60.5
42.0
56.5

60.0
72.0
52.5
46.0
37.0

33.5
53.5
71.5
41.5
50.0

70.0
70.0
63.5
47.0
32.5

49.0
49.0
Margin
4.7
1.1


6.0
29.0
20.0
22.0
(8.0)

(3.0)
(7.0)
(25.0)
2.0
18.0

(48.0)
20.0
37.0
3.0
21.0

44.0
0.0
21.0
(16.0)
13.0

20.0
44.0
5.0
(8.0)
(26.0)

(33.0)
7.0
43.0
(17.0)
0.0

40.0
40.0
27.0
(6.0)
(35.0)

(2.0)
(2.0)
Win Prob
5.0%
0.0%


93%
100%
100%
100%
2%

23%
4%
0%
69%
100%

0%
100%
100%
77%
100%

100%
50%
100%
0%
100%

100%
100%
89%
2%
0%

0%
96%
100%
0%
50%

100%
100%
100%
7%
0%

31%
31%
Flip

5



GOP












GOP
GOP


Dem





GOP



















MoE

14

AK



CA

CO
CT

FL





IL



KY






NH
NV



OH


PA




WA


WI
WV

Table 2
Probability Distribution of GOP Net Gains


OnlyLV
Gain
Seats
Probability
Exact
At least


0
41


0.0%
100.0%


1
42


0.0%
100.0%


2
43


0.0%
100.0%


3
44


1.0%
100.0%


4
45


5.0%
99.0%


5
46


17.5%
94.0%


6
47


25.0%
76.5%


7
48


37.0%
51.5%


8
49


9.5%
14.0%


9
50


5.0%
5.0%


10
51


0.0%
0.0%

Table 3
Projection Trend

Date
LV Polls
Net GOP
RV/LV Polls
Net GOP


8/26
9/1
9/10
9/15
9/26
Dem
49.0
48.2
47.9
47.8
47.6
GOP
51.0
51.8
52.1
52.2
52.4
Seats
6.2
8.0
7.3
6.7
6.5
Dem
50.5
49.5
49.6
49.3
49.5
GOP
49.5
50.5
50.4
50.7
50.5
Seats
4.4
6.0
5.3
4.3
4.3

Table 4
GOP Senate Seat Forecast

Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type

Vote Share %
Seats (table)
Seats (simulation)
Net Gain (simulation)

UVA

40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
LV

51.3
51.8
52.4
52.9
53.4
RV/LV

49.5
50.0
50.5
51.1
51.6
LV

47
48
48
48
48
RV/LV

42
43
44
46
46
LV

46.3
47.0
47.5
48.0
48.6
RV&LV

43.5
44.3
45.3
46.1
46.7
LV

5.3
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.6
RV/LV

2.5
3.3
4.3
5.1
5.7

Table 5
GOP Senate Forecast

Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch

Projections
RV/LV Undecided Vote Allocation to GOP

40%
45%
50%
55%
60%

3
Net Senate Seat Gain




Vote Switch
% to GOP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1
3
6
8
10
2
5
8
8
10
3
5
8
8
10
5
7
8
10
12
5
8
9
10
12

44
GOP Total Senate Seats






0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
42
44
47
49
51
43
46
49
49
51
44
46
49
49
51
46
48
49
51
53
46
49
50
51
53

Table 6
House Generic Poll Forecasting Model


Polls
POLL AVERAGE
PROJECTED 2-PARTY %
Projected Seats
3% MoE GOP

Latest
LV
RV

Total

2010
LV
RV
A

Total
Count
9
11

20

Count
55
83
3

141
GOP
47.9
46.7

47.3


45.4
45.2
40.0

45.2
Dem
39.8
42.6

41.4


38.5
43.7
43.3

41.6
Spread
8.1
4.1

5.9


6.9
1.5
(3.3)

3.5
GOP
54.1
52.0

53.0


53.5
50.8
48.3

51.8
Dem
45.9
48.0

47.1


46.5
49.2
51.7

48.2
Margin
8.1
4.1

5.9


6.9
1.5
(3.3)

3.5
GOP
237
228

232


235
223
212

227
Dem
198
207

203


200
212
223

208
WinProb
100%
91%

97%


99%
69%
14%

88%

Table 7
GOP House Forecast

Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch

Projections
Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP

40%
45%
50%
55%
60%

228
GOP House Seats


Vote Switch
% to GOP
0%
1%
2%
3%
224
228
232
237
226
230
235
239
228
233
237
241
231
235
230
244
233
237
242
246



Table 8
Latest Generic Polls

POLL
PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE
GOP
GOP
PROJECTED MOVING AVERAGE
GOP

Pollster
CNN/Opinion Research
Reuters/Ipsos
Gallup
Rasmussen Reports
FOX News

CBS News/NY Times
Associated Press/GfK
PPP (D)
Politico/GWU/Battleground
Gallup

Rasmussen Reports
Quinnipiac
Gallup
Rasmussen Reports
CNN/Opinion Research

ABC News/Wash Post
FOX News
USA Today/Gallup
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Newsweek
Date
9/21 - 9/23
9/16 - 9/19
9/13 - 9/19
9/13 - 9/19
9/14 - 9/16

9/10 - 9/14
9/8 - 9/13
9/10 - 9/13
9/7 - 9/9
9/6-9/12

9/6-9/12
8/31-9/7
8/30 - 9/5
8/30 - 9/5
9/1 - 9/2

8/30 - 9/2
9/1 - 9/2
8/27 - 8/30
8/23 - 8/29
8/23 - 8/29
8/25 - 8/26
Sample
506
953
2925
3500
900

na
na
590
1000
1527

3500
1905
1651
3500
936

na
900
928
3500
1540
856
Type
LV
RV
RV
LV
RV

LV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
RV
RV
LV
RV

LV
RV
RV
LV
RV
RV
GOP
53
45
45
48
46

40
53
44
43
48

48
42
46
48
52

53
46
49
45
51
45
Dem
44
46
46
38
40

38
43
45
43
43

37
37
46
36
45

40
37
43
39
41
45
Spread
9
(1)
(1)
10
6

2
10
(1)
0
5

11
5
0
12
7

13
9
6
6
10
0
GOP
54.6
49.5
49.5
55.0
53.0

51.0
55.0
49.5
50.0
52.5

55.5
52.5
50.0
56.0
53.5

56.5
54.5
53.0
53.0
55.0
50.0
Dem
45.5
50.5
50.5
45.0
47.0

49.0
45.0
50.5
50.0
47.5

44.5
47.5
50.0
44.0
46.5

43.5
45.5
47.0
47.0
45.0
50.0
Margin
9.0
(1.0)
(1.0)
10.0
6.0

2.0
10.0
(1.0)
0.0
5.0

11.0
5.0
0.0
12.0
7.0

13.0
9.0
6.0
6.0
10.0
0.0
Seats
239
217
217
241
232

224
241
217
219
230

243
230
219
246
235

248
239
232
232
241
219
WinProb
100%
37%
37%
100%
98%

74%
100%
37%
50%
95%

100%
95%
50%
100%
99%

100%
100%
98%
98%
100%
50%
GOP
51.95
52.05
52.35
52.40
52.50

52.55
53.10
53.05
53.40
53.70

53.95
53.40
53.20
53.35
53.20

53.15
52.70
52.60
52.90
52.95
52.60
Dem
48.05
47.95
47.65
47.60
47.50

47.45
46.90
46.95
46.60
46.30

46.05
46.60
46.80
46.65
46.80

46.85
47.30
47.40
47.10
47.05
47.40
Margin
3.90
4.10
4.70
4.80
5.00

5.10
6.20
6.10
6.80
7.40

7.90
6.80
6.40
6.70
6.40

6.30
5.40
5.20
5.80
5.90
5.20
Seats
228
228
230
230
230

230
233
233
234
236

237
234
233
234
233

233
231
231
232
232
231


Table 9
Pollster Averages

POLL AVERAGE
PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE
GOP
GOP

Polling Firm
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
FOX News
PPP (D)
Democracy Corps (D)

CNN/Opinion Research
ABC News/Wash Post
Ipsos/McClatchy
USA Today/Gallup
Quinnipiac

Newsweek
Reuters/Ipsos
Time
McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Associated Press/GfK
Count
36
30
12
8
7

9
5
4
3
4

2
3
2
2
2
Sample
3500
1396
900
784
869

892
na
913
970
1977

882
917
915
1000
445
MoE
1.7%
2.6%
3.3%
3.5%
3.3%

3.3%
3.0%
3.2%
3.1%
2.2%

3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
4.6%
GOP
45.2
46.4
42.8
44.3
46.0

48.9
47.4
43.5
46.0
41.3

45.3
45.7
42.5
42.0
51.0
Dem
36.9
45.1
38.7
42.5
44.1

45.3
45.0
44.8
45.3
39.0

45.0
45.0
40.0
36.0
44.0
Spread
8.3
1.3
4.2
1.8
1.9

3.6
2.4
(1.3)
0.7
2.3

(1.0)
0.7
2.5
6.0
7.0
GOP
54.2
50.6
52.1
50.9
50.9

51.8
51.2
49.4
50.3
51.1

49.5
50.3
51.3
53.0
53.5
Dem
45.8
49.4
47.9
49.1
49.1

48.2
48.8
50.6
49.7
48.9

50.5
49.7
48.8
47.0
46.5
Margin
8.3
1.3
4.2
1.8
1.9

3.6
2.4
(1.3)
0.7
2.3

(1.0)
0.7
2.5
6.0
7.0
Seats
238
222
228
223
223

227
225
217
221
224

217
221
225
232
235
WinProb
100%
66%
91%
72%
73%

88%
78%
34%
59%
77%

37%
59%
79%
98%
99%

Table 10
2006-2010 Registered and Likely Voter Poll Summary(refer to source)

Reference:20042008 Pre-election polls

Projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares.
Projections based on final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.


The projected shares (in parenthesis) are based on the allocation of undecided voters (UVA).bit.ly/claROe
Undecided voters typically break for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challenger.

Final exit polls are always "forced" to match the recorded vote (i.e. the final LV polls).bit.ly/aoovHh
In 2004, the Final National Exit Poll required an impossible 110% turnout of returning Bush voters to match the fraudulent vote count.bit.ly/amsJiB
In addition, the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (1% MoE) had to be inflated in the Final NEP.bit.ly/9UW2Ckbit.ly/bllwmx(compare with Voted 2000 Category)bit.ly/bAc6OK
In 2008, the Final NEP required an impossible 103% turnout of returning Bush voters to match the fraudulent vote count.bit.ly/amsJiB

2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.748.3% (matched by the Final National Exit Poll).bit.ly/dwaOZHbit.ly/bsL7lk

National pre-election polls

RCP
The final 15 pre-election polls listed by RCP were all likely voter (LV) polls.

RCP- 2004 Pre-election Pollsbit.ly/b4xn3h
The Oct 2 Newsweek pollexactly one month before the electionwas the last RV poll listed. Kerry led by 4745(5247%).
An Oct 31 Gallup poll -- RV and unlisted -- had Kerry ahead 4846% (projected5147%).

Bush led the final RCP 15poll average by 48.947.41.0 (2.7% were undecided).
RCP projected Bush would capture 50% of the undecided vote and win by 50.048.5, closely matching the recorded vote.
Gallup projected that Kerry, the challenger, would win 88% of the undecided vote. Zogby and Harris had 7580%.
bit.ly/claROe

TIA Election Model
Kerry led the average of 18 national polls (9 RV and 9 LV) by 47.246.9 (projected50.948.1%)

Charnin:2004 Pre-election RV/LV Polling Trend Analysis.bit.ly/9nwW3G

State Pre-election Polls

Bush led the unweighted average by47.645.7%.
Charnin:2004 Pre-election State Polling Trendbit.ly/bSgeyI

The unweighted average is misleading.
State polls must be weighted by voting population to determine the overall national share.
Kerry led the 2004 Election Model weighted aggregate by 47.946.9% (projected51.147.9%).
bit.ly/cwya4J


Battleground state pre-election polls

LV polls
All final pre-election polls listed by RCP were likely voter polls.

RCP- 2004 Battleground Statesbit.ly/9YajFS

Bush led the final unweighted average by 47.346.9%
Kerry led the LV poll projection by50.548.5%

RV polls
Assuming Kerry did 1% better in the RV polls, he led by51.547.5%.

Charnin:2004 Battleground pre-election LV polls, Exit polls and Recorded votesbit.ly/d8v0wT

Gallup
28 RV and 28 LV polls:FL 6, IA 4, MN 2, OH 6, PA 5, WI 5
LV:Bush led by 48.546.7 (projected49.549.4% ).
RV:Kerry led by 47.146.4 (projected50.947.7%).

Charnin:2004 Gallup Pre-election RV and LV Pollsbit.ly/cgzNNk

State and National Exit Polls
Kerry led the unadjusted 2004 State Exit Poll weighted Aggregate by5247%.bit.ly/cIuWyL
Kerry led the un-forcedPreliminary2004 National Exit Poll ( <1% MoE ) by50.848.2%.bit.ly/aukdM1

The election was stolen.

2006

The Democrats won the recorded vote count by 52-46% (matched by the FinalNational Exit Poll).bit.ly/21JF8h

House Generic Congressional ballot

In 2006, 120 Generic polls were listed at pollingreport.com:53 LV and 67 RV.bit.ly/cI7S1p
The Democrats led the average RV poll by 49.430.319.1% margin.
The Democrats led the average LV poll by 49.638.411.2% margin.
The LVRV margin differential indicated a pre-election 7.9% advantage for the GOP in the LV polls.

Of the final 20 generic polls advertised pre-election, eighteen (18) were LV. Only two (2) were RV.(post-election: In the 2006 midterms...)bit.ly/bAc6OK

RCP listed eight (8) final LV polls.
The Democrats led by 5240.6% (projected5642%).

RCP- Generic Congressional Ballotbit.ly/9jR6EG

The Oct 30 NBC/WSJ RV poll had the Democrats leading by 5237 (projected5840%).
The unadjusted-final National Exit Poll (i.e., Roper, 13,251 respondents) had the Democrats winning56.441.3%.

The Democratic Landslide was denied.
bit.ly/a3QVNZ
Charnin:Landslide Denied:2008 was an exact rerun of the 2006 midterms
bit.ly/aBS8Zk

2008

Obama won the recorded vote count by 52.945.6%, matched (as usual) by the forced Final National Exit Poll.bit.ly/HP4Mq

Obama led the final 15 LV polls by 52.144.5(projected5345%), matching the recorded vote.bit.ly/dwaOZH
RCP- General Election:McCain vs. Obamabit.ly/1X6u4E

The final 4 RV polls from Gallup, Pew, CBS and ABC/WP were not listed.bit.ly/dvFxJq
Obama led the RV average by 52.739.8projected(57.241.3%).
Charnin:Why the Final Pre-election Polls and the National Exit Poll Confirm an Obama 20m Vote Landslidebit.ly/9vEpUR

The Democratic landslide was denied.bit.ly/cDc8SI
Charnin:2008 Election Fraud Analyticsbit.ly/dmUhmT

Uadjusted State and unforced Preliminary National Exit polls have not been released.bit.ly/dfIPTI


Conclusion

If you believe that Kerry won in 2004 and that landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008, then you must also believe that the
a) pre-election RV polls were essentially correct
b) pre-election LV polls were wrong
c) unadjusted exit polls were essentially correct
d) Final National Exit Poll was impossible
e) Elections were fraudulent and resulted in a 45% reduction in the True Democratic share

If you believe that Bush won fairly in 2004 and the Democratic landslides of 2006 and 2008 were not denied, then you must believe that the
a) Recorded vote matched the True Vote
b) Pre-election LV polls matched the recorded vote
c) Pre-election RV polls overstated the Democratic True vote
d) Unadjusted exit polls overstated the Democratic True vote
e) Final National Exit polls matched the recorded (True) vote, even though an impossible number of returning Bush voters were required
f) Elections were fraud-free even though the votes were not and could not be verified


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