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Reply #45: I think your actual posts have been sloppy [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #42
45. I think your actual posts have been sloppy
When you change the terms of discussion from post to post, that is sloppy. Trying to figure out what a 1% audit can and can't do is a very different enterprise than defending the assertion that it is "useless." I don't know if you're actually defending that assertion, because you are changing the terms of discussion so that it is very hard to tell what you are saying.

Yes, I think in the CA example "we might be ok for state-wide..." is not a bad summary of that part (brief, of course) -- the manual tally isn't well designed for the purpose of correcting wrong outcomes, but if someone is wondering, say, if Prop 8 was straight, it gives a lot of information. And, yes, it's not very convincing for smaller contests. The ability to get partial recounts of a few precincts/batches (without paying for all the absentee ballots to be hand-sorted, for instance) would help a lot in getting a handle on how much error there might be in any one batch. (Unfortunately, short of laying out a Bayesian framework, there's no good way to quantify how useful it is.)

A 3% audit in New York ought to be about as useful as a 1% audit in California -- more or less, depending on the details of what gets audited. It's more like a smoke alarm than an actual risk-limiting audit -- as we've discussed, escalation on the county level doesn't make sense -- but as a smoke alarm it could be pretty good if done well. A 5% partial recount in Ohio is kind of similar, but only applies to one contest. If Florida picked a contest and audited it statewide, 1% would be kind of similar too. Connecticut's 10% audit isn't as good because it's 10% of a much smaller number.
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