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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-06-10 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. jeepers
Wilms, why don't you hand-count all the contests on all the ballots from over 600 precincts yourself and then see whether you feel like contesting that the sample is "kind of huge"? Are you seriously suggesting that if one of the contests is close enough, then the sample becomes smaller?

"Statistically speaking," you would have to define what you mean by "confidence" and "close" (at the very least) before your question could be answered.

As I already explained, there is no way to calculate "the chance of any of these catching jack-shit in a <statewide contest." If you think I'm being paid to BS about that, I guess I might as well seek out TIA for some more thoughtful discussion.
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  -Audits in Primary Elections? garybeck  Aug-05-10 07:27 PM   #0 
  - How many states have mandatory audits? And what are they? 1%?  Stevepol   Aug-05-10 08:19 PM   #1 
  - that doesn't answer my question but...  garybeck   Aug-05-10 08:43 PM   #2 
     - Caveat Emptor  Wilms   Aug-05-10 10:25 PM   #3 
     - I agree with what you're saying but that doesn't answer my question  garybeck   Aug-06-10 12:25 AM   #4 
     - I don't think that's "PERIOD" at all  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-06-10 07:57 AM   #8 
        - You say 1% is huge in CA, without suggesting a reported margin.  Wilms   Aug-06-10 11:08 AM   #10 
           - jeepers  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-06-10 11:41 AM   #11 
              - Lots of problems with audits though. (And I don't get paid to deal with them either!)  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 12:51 PM   #14 
              - yeah, county-by-county escalation makes little sense  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-07-10 10:02 AM   #23 
                 - *cough*  Wilms   Aug-07-10 10:38 AM   #25 
              - Don't take it personnel.  Wilms   Aug-06-10 01:05 PM   #16 
                 - hang on, which state?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-06-10 08:38 PM   #20 
                    - What do we call medical treatments with low probability of helping?  Wilms   Aug-06-10 09:22 PM   #21 
                       - hmmmm  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-07-10 08:12 AM   #22 
                          - Seems like you're overemphasizing that an audit with low confidence could still reveal a problem.  Wilms   Aug-07-10 10:37 AM   #24 
                          - I'm hardly making that point at all  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-07-10 07:40 PM   #27 
                             - OK, then. Can you name any races with a 2% margin where an audit achieved >90% confidence?  Wilms   Aug-07-10 07:53 PM   #29 
                                - How 'bout a 2% margin in a US House, State Senate or State House (or Assembly) race?  Bill Bored   Aug-07-10 11:24 PM   #30 
                                   - Yep. If guess if we exclude President, US Senate, and Governor, it's really game over. n/t  Wilms   Aug-08-10 02:01 AM   #31 
                                      - Well there is the argument that if errors happened on EVERY machine, ANY audit would find some.  Bill Bored   Aug-08-10 03:06 AM   #34 
                          - NY's audit has already been gutted. The SBOE's version was dumb but the election law's is dumber!  Bill Bored   Aug-07-10 01:37 PM   #26 
                             - as long as we're waxing metaphorical  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-07-10 07:42 PM   #28 
                                - Being a bit harsh?  Wilms   Aug-08-10 02:24 AM   #32 
                                - Well if that's the best you can come up with...  Bill Bored   Aug-08-10 03:00 AM   #33 
     - AFAIK the best resource for this kind of question  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-06-10 07:32 AM   #7 
  - NY does. That's close enough to VT. nt  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 01:17 AM   #5 
  - But do you know, generally, if primaries are included, or not? n/t  Wilms   Aug-06-10 02:51 AM   #6 
  - No, I don't. Some states definitely include them. NY, NC, maybe others. nt  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 12:38 PM   #13 
  - do you know if they audit their primary elections? n/t  garybeck   Aug-06-10 10:27 AM   #9 
     - YES, as I said, NY audits primary elections. I'm not sure what the other states do. nt  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 12:35 PM   #12 
     - Here's the NY audit law:  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 01:01 PM   #15 
        - thanks very much!!!! n/t  garybeck   Aug-06-10 01:42 PM   #17 
           - You're welcome. You might also look at what CT does.  Bill Bored   Aug-06-10 01:53 PM   #18 
              - Thank Bill.  Wilms   Aug-06-10 02:25 PM   #19 
  - Kicking for audits with high confidence levels. Anyone got one? n/t  Wilms   Aug-14-10 02:05 PM   #35 
  - I've seen some where they audited up to about 75% of the vote to get to about 75% "confidence."  Bill Bored   Aug-15-10 12:53 AM   #36 
     - Well, I kind of figured that was the case, and the reason OTOH didn't respond.  Wilms   Aug-15-10 01:18 AM   #37 
        - you were?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-15-10 01:59 PM   #38 
           - You're having a real tough time with this. Aren't you?  Wilms   Aug-15-10 02:47 PM   #39 
              - there go the goalposts again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-16-10 11:03 AM   #40 
                 - How about running the same numbers for VT since that's what this thread was supposed to be about? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-16-10 08:13 PM   #41 
                 - Don't waste his time unless it's a real audit in VT.  Wilms   Aug-17-10 12:02 AM   #43 
                 - not even  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-10 08:31 AM   #44 
                    - Inconvenient truths prevent a direct reply?  Wilms   Aug-17-10 10:10 AM   #47 
                       - yadda yadda yadda  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-10 06:21 PM   #48 
                          - You didn't answer a single question. Pathetic.  Wilms   Aug-17-10 06:47 PM   #49 
                 - Wanting to know the confidence level of various elections isn't moving the "goal post".  Wilms   Aug-16-10 11:59 PM   #42 
                    - I think your actual posts have been sloppy  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-10 08:59 AM   #45 
                       - In other words, none of these audits provide high confidence levels. Correct?  Wilms   Aug-17-10 10:07 AM   #46 
                       - Ohio didn't provide for a proper escalation procedure, so it's no exception. nt  Bill Bored   Aug-17-10 10:43 PM   #51 
                          - Does NJ's audit law provide for escalation?  Wilms   Aug-20-10 04:33 AM   #53 
                             - By law, NJ's audit must meet certain requirements that would require escalation:  Bill Bored   Aug-20-10 12:04 PM   #54 
                                - OK. That's how it looked to me.  Wilms   Aug-23-10 02:03 AM   #55 
                                   - NJ's audit is the only one with a large chance of finding and correcting serious miscounts in all  Bill Bored   Aug-23-10 07:10 PM   #56 
                                      - Thanks Bill.  Wilms   Aug-31-10 11:08 PM   #57 
                       - So how 'bout Vermont then, since it's garybeck's thread?  Bill Bored   Aug-17-10 10:18 PM   #50 
                       - Of course Florida does not "pick a contest and audit it statewide." nt  Bill Bored   Aug-17-10 10:48 PM   #52 
  - OK. Jersey (and did someone say NC?) have statistical audits.  Wilms   Nov-01-10 09:12 AM   #58 
     - New Mexico. But don't count Jersey because they don't have paper ballots. nt  Bill Bored   Nov-01-10 07:25 PM   #59 

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